포스트시즌 구조가 전력평준화 및 관중수요에 미치는 영향: 한국프로야구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

포스트시즌 구조에 따라 포스트시즌 수입은 영향을 받는다. 그러나 포스트시즌 구조와 정규시즌 관중수요간 관계에 대한 연구는 미미 하였다. 본 논문에서는 포스트시즌구조가 변화함에 따라 플레이오프 불확실성이 영향을 받아 결과적으로 관중수요에 영향을 미침을 실증적으로 보이고 있다. 구체적인 연구내용은 다음과 같다.

1. 플레이오프 불확실성을 측정하는 metric을 개발함. 이를 이용해 100여년 역사의 메이저리그의 연간 플레이오프 불확실성자료를 계산함.
2. 포스트시즌구조와 플레이오프 불확실성과 관계를 분석. 미국 메이저리그에서는 두차례 포스트시즌 구조변화가 있었고 두차례 모두 플레이오프 불확실성을 향상시키는데 기여한 것으로 나타났음.
3. 관중수요방정식을 구조변화를 고려한 모형에 적용하여 실증분석한 결과 플레이오프 불확실성이 높아질수록 정규시즌 관중이 늘어나는 것으로 나타났음.

결과적으로 메이저리그에서는 두차례 포스트시즌 구조변경이 정규리그 관중수요에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 작용하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Competitive balance is one of the most extensively analyzed issues in sports economics: the greater the competitive balance in a league, the more uncertain the outcome becomes. There are several dimensions of competitive balance (Cairns, 1987; Sanderson, 2002; Fort, 2006; Fort and Lee, 2006b). Cairns (1987) categorized uncertainty of outcome into three dimensions: uncertainty of individual matches, uncertainty of the championship, and long-run domination of the championship by a particular team. Fort and Lee (2006b) subdivided competitive balance into three similar dimensions: game uncertainty, playoff uncertainty (PU), and consecutive season uncertainty. Game uncertainty concerns the predictability of individual games, while PU represents the closeness of the race in a regular season for the playoffs or for the championship. Consecutive season uncertainty considers chronic superiority and inferiority in pennant races by a number of teams. Considering all three facets of competitive balance in the attendance regression, Fort and Lee (2006b) found that PU is the only type of competitive balance to impact Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance with statistical significance.
Considering the significant impact on attendance and the potential manageability of PU, comprehensive analyses of PU should both add to the literature and provide practical information and applications for league policy. In this paper, we present such an analysis. We first discuss an alternative PU measure developed based on two criteria: (i) that the measure accounts for the PU of every member team in a league, not just eventual division winners and runner-ups, and (ii) that the measure considers the fact that the impacts of one unit change in games back (GB) on PU for a team trailing by one game is not identical to that for a team trailing by, for example, ten games. Second, we analyze the relationship between PU and postseason structure. In MLB, two changes to the postseason structure took place in 1969 and 1994. These restructurings allowed more teams to be involved in postseason competitions: from two teams during 1901？1968 to four teams during 1969？1993 and to eight teams since 1994. Third, we test the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis with our new PU measure by applying the same econometric methodology as Fort and Lee (2006b). Another testable hypothesis is that a unit change in our PU measure may impact attendance differently under different postseason structures because PU was artificially changed. We thus test the hypothesis that the manipulated enhancement of PU has an equal strength of impact on fan demand as does a natural enhancement of PU. We also compare how postseason restructuring affects attendance, by the enhancement of PU.