국내 기업의 대 필리핀 해외직접투자와 글로벌 밸류체인(GVC)에 대한 타당성 분석 = The Feasibility Study on The Outward-Foreign Direct Investment and Global Value Chain in Philippines Market

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper examined the effect of industry 4.0 and global value chain based on outward foreign direct investment to Philippines market. The export volume to Philippines, export ratio to Philippines, import volume from Philippines, and import ratio from Philippines were as proxy for the international trade. The outward foreign direct investment volume and number of new corporations were as proxy for the outward foreign direct investment.
Based on the analysis of one hundred twenty monthly data, the following results were found. First, the export volume to Philippines and Import volume from Philippines have a positively significant influence on the outward foreign direct investment volume. Second, the export ratio from Philippines and import ration from Philippines have a negatively significant influence on the outward foreign direct investment volume. Third, the export volume to Philippines and export ratio to Philippines have a positively significant influence on the number of new corporation.
Fourth, the import volume from Philippines and import ratio from Philippines don't have a significant influence on the outward foreign direct investment volume.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 POLS모형과 고정효과모형을 활용하여 한국의 대 필리핀 해외직접투자가 국제무역에 미치는효과를 분석하였다. 신고건수, 신고금액, 신규법인수, 해외직접투자 금액 등은 해외직접투자의 대용변수로사용하였고, 10대 수출입품목을 대상으로 대 필리핀 수출액, 대 필리핀 수출비중, 필리핀으로부터 수입액, 필리핀으로부터 수입비중 등은 국제무역 효과의 대용변수로 사용되었다. 한국과 필리핀 간의 해외직접투자와 국제무역 효과와 관련된 84개의 월간데이터를 분석한 결과 다음과 같은 연구결과를 얻었다. 첫째, 해외직접투자 중에서 신고금액, 해외직접투자 금액은 대 필리핀 시장 수출액에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미쳤다. 둘째, 신고건수, 신고금액, 신규법인수, 해외직접투자 금액 등의 해외직접투자는 대 필리핀 시장 수출비중에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았다. 셋째, 해외직접투자 중에서 해외직접투자 금액은 필리핀으로부터 수입액에 유의한 부(-)의 영향을 미쳤다. 마지막으로, 신고건수, 신고금액, 신규법인수, 해외직접투자 금액 등의 해외직접투자는 필리핀으로부터 수입비중에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았다.

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