Developing the Fuel Pricing System in Egypt for Sustainable Road Transportation : A Systematic Review of Global Practices and Their Impacts on GHG Emissions = 지속 가능한 도로 교통을 위한 이집트의 연료 가격 체계 개발 글로벌 관행과 GHG 배출에 미치는 영향에 대한 체계적 검토

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Egypt’s transportation sector is responsible for approximately 30% of total GHG emissions domestically, resulting from years of subsidies for fossil fuel products, which distorted the market, encouraged overconsumption of fuels, and led to a large fiscal burden on public finances, amounting to approximately 7% of GDP (CAPMAS, 2024; Ministry of Petroleum, 2022; IMF, 2013; Coady et al., 2016). Despite recent public transport investments and slow subsidy reforms, Egypt continues to lack a coherent and adaptable fuel pricing mechanism aligned with its social, economic, and environmental aspirations.
This study describes a context-specific approach that will assist Egypt to reform fuel pricing in the road sector through bringing together international experience of subsidy removal and/or carbon pricing and market based fuel pricing systems. Using a systematic literature review following PRISMA (PRISMA 2020 Statement - PRISMA Statement, 2020), with empirical studies were analyzed, which reviewed a range of reforms, trajectories and options from both developed and developing economies. In order to think about transferability of reforms, a Country Similarity Scoring Matrix (CSSM) capturing structural similarities between countries, was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to compare key economic, environmental, and governance indicators, to create a comparative pool of countries.
The findings indicate that incremental fuel pricing reform, which comes with a well-targeted social protection program and investments in public transport, will work best. The research identifies a four-stage typology of fuel pricing reform from fully subsidized regimes to green pricing regimes and suggests lessons applied to create a fuel pricing reform system that is socially equitable, fiscally responsible, and environmentally sustainable in Egypt.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이집트의 교통 부문은 국내 총 온실가스 배출량의 약 30%를 차지합니다. 이는 수년간의 화석 연료 제품 보조금으로 인해 발생했으며, 이는 시장을 왜곡하고 연료 과소비를 조장하여 공공 재정에 막대한 재정적 부담을 초래하여 GDP 의 약 7%에 달했습니다(CAPMAS, 2024; 석유부, 2022; IMF, 2013; Coady et al., 2016). 최근 대중교통 투자와 더딘 보조금 개혁에도 불구하고, 이집트는 사회, 경제, 환경적 목표에 부합하는 일관되고 적응력 있는 연료 가격 책정 메커니즘을 여전히 갖추지 못하고 있습니다.
본 연구는 보조금 폐지 및/또는 탄소 가격 책정에 대한 국제적 경험과 시장 기반 연료 가격 책정 시스템을 통합하여 이집트가 도로 부문의 연료 가격 책정을 개혁할 수 있도록 지원하는 맥락별 접근 방식을 제시합니다. PRISMA(PRISMA 2020 성명서 - PRISMA 성명서, 2020)에 따른 체계적인 문헌 검토와 실증 연구를 활용하여 선진국과 개발도상국 모두의 다양한 개혁, 궤적 및 선택지를 검토했습니다. 개혁의 이전 가능성을 검토하기 위해 국가 간 구조적 유사성을 포착하는 국가 유사성 점수 행렬(CSSM)을 개발하고, 주요 경제, 환경 및 거버넌스 지표를 비교하여 비교 가능한 국가 풀을 구축했습니다.
연구 결과는 목표 지향적인 사회 보장 프로그램과 대중교통 투자를 동반하는 점진적인 연료 가격 개혁이 가장 효과적일 것임을 시사합니다. 본 연구는 완전 보조금 제도에서 친환경 가격 제도까지 연료 가격 개혁의 4 단계 유형을 파악하고, 이집트에서 사회적 형평성, 재정적 책임, 환경적 지속가능성을 갖춘 연료 가격 개혁 시스템을 구축하기 위해 적용할 수 있는 교훈을 제시합니다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract 2
• 1. Introduction 8
• 2. Literature Review 12
• 2.1 Introduction and Context 12
• 2.2 Economic Costs, Debates, and Reform Pathways 13
• 2.3 Social, Environmental, and Public Health Impacts 14
• 2.4 International Experience: Successes, Failures, and Lessons 15
• 2.4.1 Findings from the Global South 16
• 2.4.2 Findings from High-income countries 17
• 2.5 Local Context: Egypt’s Challenges and the Limits of Policy Transfer 18
• 2.6 The Other Side of the Mountain: Hard-Won Gains from Fuel Pricing Reform 19
• 2.6.1 Environmental Renewal: Clearer Skies, Healthier Lives 20
• 2.6.2 Economic Breathing Room: From Fiscal Sinkhole to Productive Investment 20
• 2.6.3 Behavioral Shift: Efficiency, Public Transport, and Smarter Mobility 21
• 2.7 Methodological Insights and Research Gaps 22
• 2.7.1 Quantitative Approaches: Similarity Metrics 23
• 2.7.2 Methodological Contribution of the Present Research 24
• 2.8 Synthesis and Remaining Gaps 25
• 3. Methodology 27
• 3.1 Data Identification 28
• 3.1.2 Data analysis procedures 33
• 3.1.3. Country Similarity Scoring Matrix (CSSM) 36
• 3.2 Methodology limitations 37
• 4. Findings 40
• 4.1 Corpus and Scope of Evidence (PRISMA-Aligned Summary) 40
• 4.2 Quantitative Similarity Analysis (CSSM): PCA Diagnostics and Application to Egypt 41
• 4.3 Findings by Reform Trajectory and Thematic Dimensions 45
• Stage One: Fully Subsidized Fuel Regime 46
• Economic Impacts in Fully Subsidized Systems 46
• Social Welfare and Distributional Effects 49
• Environmental Outcomes 52
• Public Behavior and Political Response 54
• Stage Two: Quasi-Subsidized “Hybrid” Regime 57
• Economic Impact in Hybrid Regimes 57
• Social Welfare and Mitigation Measures 60
• Environmental and Energy Outcomes 64
• Public Behavior and Acceptance 66
• Stage Three: Market-Based Pricing Regime 70
• Economic and Fiscal Outcomes 70
• Social and Equity Considerations 73
• Environmental Outcomes and Green Transition Readiness 76
• Public and Political Dynamics 79
• Stage Four: Green Pricing Regime (Sustainable Fuel Pricing) 82
• Economic and Fiscal Aspects 83
• Social and Equity Dimensions 86
• Environmental Outcomes 89
• Public Reception and Political Viability 91
• 5. Discussion and Implications 94
• From Full Subsidies to a Breaking Point: The Pitfalls of Fully Subsidized Regimes 95
• The Promise of Hybrid Systems: Gradualism, Targeted Support, and Learning by Doing 100
• Full Liberalization via Dynamic Pricing: Efficiency Gains, Fiscal Benefits, and Social Risks 106
• Toward Green Pricing: Integrating Environmental Costs and Navigating the Trust Barrier 112
• 6. Conclusion 118
• References 128
• 7. Appendix A Extracted Dataset 141
• 8. Appendix B Country Similarity score matrix 143
• 9. Appendix C PRISMA 2020 Checklist 148
• Abstract (Korean) 153