북핵협상 20년의 평가와 교훈 = Critical Review of and Lessons from the Nuclear Negotiations with North Korea for Twenty Years

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Already 20 years have passed since the nuclear negotiations to tackle with North Korean nuclear problem started. In the meantime, a series of nuclear agreements have been reached through the inter-Korean dialogues, the U.S.-North Korea dialogues, and the Six-Party Talks. Since North Korea has increased its plutonium inventory manifolds and carried out the nuclear test twice, however, we may conclude that the denuclearization diplomacy has failed.


What is more important than the immediate resumption of the Six-party Talks is to overhaul our denuclearization diplomacy and to establish a new denuclearization strategy. For this purpose, this paper attempts to analyze the reasons for the failure of the past nuclear negotiations with North Korea and to learn lessons from the past experiences. Especially it focuses on the cyclical patterns that the eruption of nuclear crises, formation of nuclear agreements, and the collapse of the agreements recur during the last 20 years. Specifically the process of nuclear negotiations has revealed a 4-staged recurring pattern which is precipitated by North Korea's provocation followed by the outbreak of the nuclear crisis, the settlement of a nuclear agreement, and the collapse of the agreement.


Thus, the new strategy for North Korea's denuclearization should deal with not only the North Korean nuclear problem but also with the 'North Korean problem' comprehensively, since the nuclear problem is only a part of the bigger North Korean problem. Former efforts to apply the Argentina-Brazil, Ukraine, and Libya denuclearization model to North Korea all failed. So we should look for a new denuclearization solution that is tailored to deal with unique natures of North Korea, inter-Korean relations and Northeast Asia. The 'Grand Bargain' and 'Five-Party Talks' initiatives could be one of efficient methods to find such a new denuclearization solution.

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