핵폐기 사례연구: 남아프리카공화국 사례의 함의와 한계 = Nuclear Rollback: Implications and Limitations of the South Africa Case

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

South Africa is the first and only known country that has built and then dismantled its nuclear arsenal. As we discuss how and why North Korea might give up its nuclear weapons, South Africa's decision is worth a close examination. Multiple explanations exist for South Africa's decision, some of which are mutually contradictory. This is inevitable for a single case, however. In this essay, existing explanations for South Africa's decision are grouped into two broad types. The first type argues that the decision came as a result of a reduction in external threat, while the second type explains the decision through factors unrelated to security. To be more specific, second-type explanations point to President de Klerk's leadership, demand from the military, pressure from the U.S. government, and pressure from the ANC as the causes for the decision.


The South Africa case has the following potential implications for North Korea. First, improved security may not necessarily lead North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. This means, among others, that negative security guarantee may be of limited use. Second, nuclear rollback may not require a regime change; it may just need a change in leadership. Unfortunately for us, we have little, if not zero, influence over the North Korean leadership let alone its change. Third, the international community must make credible commitments to reward a North Korean leader who decides to reform and liberalize North Korea and also to abide by international norm. Fourth, North Korea is likely to dismantle its nuclear arsenal when it redefines its identity as a 'normal state' and a 'member of the international community.' Lastly, since North Korea's nuclear rollback is likely to involve economic compensation and security guarantee, the Ukraine case may be also relevant.

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