재정개혁과 경제성장: 통제집단합성법(SCM)을 이용한 접근 = Fiscal Reform and Economic Growth in Korea: A Synthetic Control Method (SCM) Approach

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 구조적 재정개혁 정책이 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 실증분석을 통해 알아보는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 IMF(2015)에서 정의한 방식보다 더욱 엄격한 기준을 통해 한국의 재정개혁의 시기를 1996~2000년의 시기로 특정하였다. 본 연구의 실증분석을 위해 채택하고 있는 방법론은 통제집단합성법(Synthetic Control Method, SCM)이다. SCM은 미시계량경제학의 이중차분법과 유사한 방법론으로 국가, 지역 등의 거시집계 변수들에 적용하여 특정 사건의 인과관계 규명을 위해 처치집단과 통제집단의 사건 이후의 성과차이를 계량하는 데이터 중심 추계 방법론이다. 동 분석을 위해 한국과 지리적으로 인접하고 경제발전단계의 경험을 시기적으로 공유하고 있는 6개국(일본, 대만, 싱가포르, 홍콩, 말레이시아, 인도네시아) 및 재정개혁이 비교적 활발했던 호주와 아일랜드 등 8개국을 통제 집단으로 하여 SCM 분석을 시행하였다. SCM 분석결과 재정개혁이 한국의 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 추정되었으며, 또한 두 가지 위약효과를 통해서도 1996~2000년의 재정개혁이 경제성장에 양(+)의 유의한 효과를 미쳤음이 강건한 결과임을 확인할 수 있었다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of structural fiscal reform policies on economic growth. Structural fiscal reforms proposed in this study refer to growth-friendly policy changes on tax-fiscal policies related to input of production factors and technological progress in traditional economic growth theory. In this study, we will specify the timing of fiscal reform through changes and scale of tax system, value added tax rate, top income tax rate and top corporate tax rate, government investment expenditure, health expenditure, education expenditure. The timing of fiscal reform in Korea is specified as the period from 1996 to 2000 among 1980 to 2010 through stricter standards than those defined by the IMF (2015). The methodology adopted for the empirical analysis of this study is the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). SCM is a methodology similar to the difference-in-difference(DID) method of microeconometrics. It is applied to macroeconomic variables such as country, region, etc. to estimate the causal relationship between specific events and the dependent variable. We include 8 countries as the synthetic control group. The six countries (Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Indonesia) are chosen for the geographic vicinity and the common experience in economic development with Korea and two countires (Austrailia and Ireland) are for their active fiscal refomr policy. From the SCM analysis, it is estimated that the fiscal reform has a positive effect on the economic growth of Korea. Also, through the two placebo effects, it can be seen that the fiscal reform from 1996 to 2000 had a significant effect.

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