한반도 통일과 동아시아 안정성: 안정 및 불안정 요인에 관한 이론적 분석 = Korean Unification and the Stability of East Asia: A Theoretical Analysis of Stabilizing and Destabilizing Factors

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article examines how the unification of the two Koreas would affect the stability of East Asian international politics. Its core arguments are three-fold. First, Korean unification’s impact on East Asian stability may not be all that large. Most of the stabilizing and destabilizing factors produced by unification would have a rather small effect. Their net effect would also be small because their individual effects would partly offset each other. Second, while unification would not bring about a tectonic shift, it could contribute significantly to regional stability. Third, most of the stabilizing and destabilizing factors would appear in the early phase of the unification process. Therefore, advance preparations and swift responses are essential to amplifying unification’s stabilizing effects and mitigating its destabilizing consequences.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문에서는 한반도의 통일이 동아시아 국제정치의 안정성에 미칠 영향에 대해 고찰한다. 이에 관해 세 가지 핵심주장을 개진한다. 첫째, 한반도 통일이 동아시아 안정에 미치는 영향은 크지 않다. 통일이 만들어 낼 안정요인과 불안정요인의 개별효과는 대체로 작은 편이며, 그 효과가 서로 상쇄되므로 전체적인 순수효과도 작다. 둘째, 동아시아 국제정치에 지각변동을 일으킬 수는 없더라도, 한반도 통일은 지역안정에 유의미한 기여를 할 수 있다. 셋째, 한반도 통일이 빚어내는 안정요인과 불안정요인은 대개 통일과정의 초반에 발현된다. 따라서 불안정요인을 관리하고 안정요인을 강화할 수 있는 사전준비와 초동대응이 중요하다.

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