Flood risk change : a complexity perspective

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Preface = xi
• 1. Introduction = 1
• References = 7
• 2. Key drivers of flood risk change = 9
• Principles of flood risk analysis = 11
• Environmental changes = 17
• Environmental changes in the upstream catchment = 17
• Dams, reservoirs, and regulated lakes = 17
• Land use changes at catchment scale = 19
• Changes in the glacial and periglacial environment = 20
• Natural climate variability = 20
• Environmental changes in the floodplain = 21
• Changes in river morphology at reach scale = 21
• Climate changes = 24
• Socioeconomic changes = 25
• Coevolution of key drivers of change = 26
• References = 30
• 3. Disentangling drivers of change = 37
• Analysis and modeling framework = 38
• Simulations driven by global and regional climate models = 41
• Sensitivity analysis and scenario-neutral approaches = 43
• The storyline approach = 44
• The retromodel experiment approach = 46
• Quantifying the isolated effects of drivers of change with model experiments = 47
• The Kander river deviation of 1714 AD and its effects on hydrological change = 47
• Analyzing the cumulative effects of river training measures on flood impacts = 75
• Assessing changes to flood hazard maps due to climatic changes = 104
• Changes in sediment supply for torrential floods = 108
• Analyzing spatiotemporal dynamics of fluvial erosion and riverbed aggradation = 112
• Analyzing changes in flood exposure = 119
• Analyzing the effects of land use planning on flood exposure = 125
• Modeling the effects of changing vulnerability on flood risk change = 128
• Analyzing the effects of feedback and time lags on flood risk change = 134
• Feedback effects of fluvial erosion and riverbed aggradation on flood risk change = 134
• Feedback effects of landscape shaping flood events on hydrological change = 141
• Feedback effects of flood events on the initiation of flood protection projects = 146
• The societal memory effect on house construction activities in flood-prone areas = 148
• Time lags in the implementation of flood risk management measures = 151
• Other aspects that are contributing to the complexity of flood risk management = 153
• Acknowledgments = 155
• References = 155
• 4. Rivers and floodplains as complex adaptive systems? = 167
• Characteristics of complex systems = 167
• Numerosity and diversity = 168
• Order and disorder = 169
• Nested structure, modularity, and multiple scales = 169
• Feedback = 170
• Nonlinearity = 171
• Nonequilibrium, fluctuations, episodical changes = 1 72
• Emergence, self-organization, self-regulation = 172
• History and memory, path dependency = 173
• Robustness = 173
• Adaptive behavior = 174
• Uncertainty = 175
• Long-term evolution of floodplains seen from a complex systems perspective = 175
• Complexity of flood risk change = 177
• Trajectories and pathways of flood risk evolution = 178
• Sensitivity to climatic changes-short-term future pathways = 1 79
• References = 184
• 5. Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of flood risk change = 187
• Examples of flood risk change analysis = 188
• The tool "Flood memory" = 189
• The tool "Flood damage potential" = 190
• The tool "Flood damage simulator" = 198
• The tool "Flood risk dynamics"-flood risk change at centennial scale = 214
• The tool "Flood dynamics"-flood impact variability at hourly scales = 225
• Decision-making leads to the emergence of spatial patterns of flood risk change = 242
• Monitoring flood risk change = 247
• Modeling framework for considering complexity in the analysis of flood risk change = 247
• Development of coupled component models = 251
• Model coupler = 251
• Development of model components = 255
• Data sources = 258
• Perspectives of coupled component models in hydrology = 263
• Context for hydrology = 263
• Hydrology as a context = 263
• Feedbacks : unifying top-down and bottom-up modeling approaches = 264
• Acknowledgments = 264
• References = 264
• 6. Confronting complexity in flood risk management = 273
• A new perspective on flood risks = 273
• Lessons learnt from the Kander river deviation = 279
• Levers for controlling flood risk in the long term = 283
• Implications for flood risk research and management = 286
• References = 292
• Index = 297