REVIEW Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes over Korea and Possible Causes: A Review

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Weather and climate extremes exert devastating influence on human society and ecosystem around the world. Recent observations show increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes around the world including East Asia. In order to assess current status of the observed changes in weather and climate extremes and discuss possible mechanisms, this study provides an overview of recent analyses on such extremes over Korea and East Asia. It is found that the temperature extremes over the Korean Peninsula exhibit long-term warming trends with more frequent hot events and less frequent cold events, along with sizeable interannual and decadal variabilities. The comprehensive review on the previous literature further suggests that the weather and climate extremes over East Asia can be affected by several climate factors of external and internal origins. It has been assessed that greenhouse warming leads to increase in warm extremes and decrease in cold extremes over East Asia, but recent Arctic sea-ice melting and associated warming tends to bring cold snaps to East Asia during winter. Internal climate variability such as tropical intraseasonal oscillation and El NiñoSouthern Oscillation can also exert considerable impacts on weather and climate extremes over Korea and East Asia. It is, however, noted that our current understanding is far behind to estimate the effect of these climate factors on local weather and climate extremes in a quantitative sense.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 유영은, "한반도 혹한 발생시 종관장 특성과 대규모 기후 변동성 간의 연관성" 한국기상학회 25 (25): 435-447, 2015

2 김상욱, "한반도 극한 기온의 선형 및 비선형 변화 경향" 한국기상학회 24 (24): 379-390, 2014

3 허인혜, "한국의 이상기온 출현 빈도의 변화와 그 요인에 관한 연구" 대한지리학회 41 (41): 94-105, 2006

4 문자연, "적도 저주파 진동과 관련된 한반도 여름철 강수의 변동성 연구" 대한지리학회 48 (48): 184-203, 2013

5 박우선, "우리나라에서 최근 50년 (1958-2007)간 열대야 발생 특성 및 변화 경향" 한국기상학회 21 (21): 361-371, 2011

6 김백민, "북극 온난화에 따른 겨울철 대기 변동성 분석 연구" 한국기상학회 24 (24): 131-140, 2014

7 한상대, "매든-줄리안 진동의 위상에 따른 동아시아 지역의 강수와 순환의 변동성" 한국지구과학회 30 (30): 282-293, 2009

8 이경미, "고해상도 지역기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 한국의 미래 기온극값 변화 전망." 대한지리학회 47 (47): 208-225, 2012

9 Son, H. -Y., "Winter precipitation variability over Korean Peninsula associated with ENSO" 41 : 11-12, 2014

10 Cohen, J., "Winter 2009-2010: A case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event" 37 : 2010

11 Ha, K. -J., "What caused the cool summer over northern Central Asia, East Asia, and central North America during 2009?" 7 : 44015-, 2009

12 Kim, B.-M, "Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss" 5 : 4646-, 2014

13 Donat, M. G., "Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset" 118 : 2098-2118, 2013

14 Ding, Q., "Tropicalextratropical teleconnections in boreal summer: observed interannual variability" 24 : 1878-1896, 2011

15 최영은, "Trends on Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events in Korea" 대한지리학회 39 (39): 711-721, 2004

16 Palmer, T. N., "Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts" 89 : 459-470, 2008

17 Oh, H., "Thermodynamic characteristics and responses to ENSO of dominant intraseasonal modes in the East Asian summer monsoon" 2014

18 Liptak, J., "The winter atmospheric response to sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea" 27 : 914-924, 2014

19 Deser, C., "The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twentyfirst century" 23 : 333-351, 2010

20 Inoue, J., "The role of Barents Sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberian Anomaly" 25 : 2561-2568, 2012

21 O’Gorman, P. A., "The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change" 106 : 14773-14777, 2009

22 Seo, K. -H., "The global atmospheric circulation response to Tropical diabatic heating associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Northern Winter" 69 : 79-96, 2012

23 Kim, M. -K., "The estimation of urban warming amounts due to urbanization in Korea for the recent 40 years" 35 : 118-126, 1999

24 Trenberth, K. E., "The changing character of precipitation" 84 : 1205-1217, 2003

25 Screen, J. A., "The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification" 464 : 1334-1337, 2010

26 Seo, K. -H., "The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS): The effect of sea surface temperature" 135 : 1807-1827, 2007

27 Alexander, M. A., "The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter" 17 : 890-905, 2004

28 Yun, K. -S., "The 30-60 day oscillation in the East Asian sumer monsoon and its time-dependent association with the ENSO" 61A : 565-578, 2009

29 Moon, J. -Y., "Teleconnections associated with Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation" 40 : 2761-2774, 2013

30 Jeong, J. -H., "Systematic variation in wintertime precipitation in East Asia by MJO-induced extratropical vertical motion" 21 : 788-801, 2008

31 IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers"

32 An, S. -I., "Successive modulation of ENSO to the future greenhouse warming" 21 : 3-21, 2008

33 Jong-Seong Kug, "Statistical Relationship between Two Types of El Niño Events and Climate Variation over the Korean Peninsula" 한국기상학회 46 (46): 467-747, 2010

34 Chang, H. -J., "Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005" 2 : 1-9, 2005

35 Mori, M., "Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades" 7 : 869-873, 2014

36 Barnes, E. A., "Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification 1 to extreme weather in midlatitudes" 40 : 1-6, 2013

37 Song, F., "Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models" 41 : 596-603, 2014

38 Boo, K. -O., "Response of global warming on regional climate change over Korea: An experiment with the MM5 model" 31 : L21206-, 2004

39 Kim, S. -T., "Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming" 4 : 786-790, 2014

40 Kang I. -S., "Relationship between El Niño and climate variation over Korea peninsula" 34 : 390-396, 1998

41 Yun, K. -S., "Relationship between ENSO and Northward Propagating ISO in the East Asian summer Monsoon System" 113 : D14120-, 2008

42 Oh, J. -H., "Regional climate simulation for Korea using dynamic downscaling and statistical adjustment" 82 : 1629-1643, 2004

43 Jung, I. -W., "Recent trends of mean and extreme precipitation in Korea" 31 : 359-370, 2011

44 Jung, H. S., "Recent trends in temperature and precipitation over South Korea" 22 : 1327-1337, 2002

45 Kosaka, Y., "Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling" 501 : 403-407, 2013

46 최광용, "Recent Spatial and Temporal Changes in Means and Extreme Events of Temperature and Precipitation across the Republic of Korea" 대한지리학회 43 (43): 681-700, 2008

47 예상욱, "Recent Progress on Two Types of El Nin~o: Observations, Dynamics, and Future Changes" 한국기상학회 50 (50): 69-81, 2014

48 Cohen, J., "Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather" 7 : 627-637, 2014

49 Lee, J. -Y., "Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region" 40 : 493-509, 2013

50 Tianjun Zhou, "REVIEW Advances in Research of ENSO Changes and the Associated Impacts on Asian-Pacific Climate" 한국기상학회 50 (50): 405-422, 2014

51 Coumou, D., "Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer" 2014

52 소병진, "Quantile 회귀분석을 이용한 극대강수량 자료의 경향성 분석" 한국수자원학회 45 (45): 815-826, 2012

53 Yu, K., "Quantile regression: applications and current research areas" 52 : 331-350, 2003

54 Kang I. -S., "Principal modes of climatological seasonal and intraseasonal variations of the Asian summer monsoon" 127 : 322-340, 1999

55 Mani, N. J., "Predictaility of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)" 27 : 4531-4543, 2014

56 Ding, R., "Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation estimated using observational data" 138 : 1004-1013, 2010

57 Waliser, D. E., "Predictability of Weather and Climate" Cambridge Univ. Press 275-305, 2006

58 Lee, S.-S., "Predictability and prediction skill of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment" 2015

59 Lee, J. -Y., "Predictability and prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A review on progress and current status" World Scientific 2015

60 Wang, B., "Pacific-East Asia teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?" 13 : 1517-1536, 2000

61 Lee, C. B., "On the secular variation of air temperature in Seoul" 14 : 29-35, 1978

62 Rho, C. S., "On the rising trend of air temperature in Korea" 9 : 49-58, 1973

63 Chung, Y. -S., "On climate variations and changes observed in South Korea" 66 : 151-161, 2004

64 Min, S. -K., "Multimodel detection and attribution of extreme temperature changes" 26 : 7430-7451, 2013

65 Mieruch, S., "Markov chain analysis of regional climates" 17 : 651-661, 2010

66 Zhang, C., "Madden-Julian Oscillation: bridging weather and climate" 94 : 1849-1870, 2013

67 Kwon, T.-Y., "Long-term variability and regional characteristics of summer rainfall in Korea" 34 : 20-30, 1998

68 Santoso, A., "Late-twentieth-century emergence of the El Niño propagation asymmetry and future projections" 504 : 126-130, 2013

69 Overland, J. E., "Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice" 62 : 1-9, 0421

70 Easterling, D. R., "Is the climate warming or cooling?" 36 : L08706-, 2009

71 Ding, Q., "Intraseasonal teleconnection between the summer Eurasian wave train and the Indian summer monsoon" 20 : 3751-3767, 2007

72 Yun, K. -S., "Interdecadal change in the relationship between ENSO and the intraseasonal oscillation in East Asia" 23 : 3599-3612, 2010

73 Park, T. -W., "Influences of Arctic Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation on cold surges and heavy snowfalls over Korea" 115 : D23122-, 2010

74 Jeong, J. -H., "Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on wintertime surface air temperature and cold surges in East Asia" 110 : D11104-, 2005

75 Honda, M., "Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters" 36 : L08707-, 2009

76 Cai, W.-J., "Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming" 4 : 111-116, 2014

77 Screen, J. A., "Increasing fall-winter energy loss from the Arctic Ocean and its role in Arctic temperature amplification" 37 : L16707-, 2010

78 Lim, Y. -K., "Improvement in simulation of Eurasian winter climate variability with a realistic Arctic sea ice condition in an atmospheric GCM" 7 : 2012

79 Jaiser, R., "Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation" 64 : 2012

80 Liu, J., "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall" 109 : 4074-4079, 2012

81 국종성, "Impact of Urbanization on Recent Temperature and Precipitation Trends in the Korean Peninsula" 한국기상학회 49 (49): 151-159, 2013

82 Min, S. -K., "Human contribution to more intense precipitation extremes" 470 : 378-381, 2011

83 Lee, J. -Y., "How predictable is the Northern Hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?" 37 : 1189-1203, 2011

84 Coumou, D., "Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes" 8 : 034018-, 2013

85 Wallace, J. M., "Global warming and winter weather" 343 : 729-730, 2014

86 Rayner, N. A., "Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century" 108 : 4407-, 2003

87 Lee, J.-Y., "Future change of Northern Hemisphere summer tropicalextratropical teleconnection in CMIP5 models" 27 : 3643-3664, 2014

88 서예원, "Future Change of Extreme Temperature Climate Indices over East Asia with Uncertainties Estimation in the CMIP5" 한국기상학회 50 (50): 57-72, 2014

89 Lei, Y., "Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over china. Part I: observational evidence" 24 : 4584-4599, 2011

90 Screen, J. A., "Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather" 40 : 959-964, 2013

91 Herring, S. C., "Explaining extreme events of 2013 from a climate perspective" 95 : S1-S96, 2013

92 Peterson, T. C., "Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective" 94 : S1-S74, 2012

93 Peterson, T. C., "Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective" 93 : 1041-1067, 2012

94 Francis, J. A., "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes" 39 : 2012

95 Allen, M., "Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting" 21 : 477-491, 2003

96 Ding, R., "Estimate of the predictability of boreal summer and winter intraseasonal oscillations from observations" 139 : 2421-2438, 2011

97 Kemball-Cook, S., "Equatorial waves and air-sea interaction in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation" 14 : 2923-2942, 2001

98 Vihma, T., "Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review" 35 : 1175-1214, 2014

99 Moon, J.-Y., "ENSO regulation of MJO teleconnection" 37 : 1133-1149, 2011

100 Park, T. -W., "Different characteristics of cold day and cold surge frequency over East Asia in a global warming situation" 116 : D12118-, 2011

101 Wen, Q. H., "Detecting human influence on extreme temperatures in China" 40 : 1171-1176, 2013

102 Zhou, T., "Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon - Recent progress and state of affairs" 18 : 455-467, 2009

103 Morak, S., "Detectable changes in the frequency of temperature extremes" 26 : 1561-1574, 2013

104 Madden, R. A., "Description of global-scale circulation cells in tropics with a 40-50 day period" 29 : 1109-1123, 1972

105 Nitta, T., "Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the northern hemisphere summer circulation" 65 : 373-390, 1987

106 Bindoff, N. L., "Contribution of WGI to the AR5 of the IPCC" Cambridge University Press 2013

107 Allen, M., "Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle" 429 : 224-232, 2002

108 Tang, Q., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss" 8 : 14036-, 2013

109 Ha, K. -J., "Climate change effects on tropical night days in Seoul, Korea" 109 : 191-203, 2012

110 IPCC, "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" Cambridge University Press 1535-, 2013

111 Ryoo, S. -B., "Characteristics of wintertime daily and extreme minimum temperature over South Korea" 24 : 145-160, 2004

112 Kim, H., "Characteristics of northern hemispheric wintertime cold extremes for 1951-2011 as revealed by a Markov chain analysis" 2014

113 Im, E. -S., "Characteristics of extreme climate sequences over Korea using a regional climate change scenario" 3 : 017-020, 2007

114 Boo, K. -O., "Change of extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Korea using regional projection of future climate change" 33 : L01701-, 2006

115 Zhang, X., "Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence" 40 : 5252-5257, 2013

116 Cohen, J., "Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends" 39 : L04705-, 2012

117 Lee, M. -H., "Assessment of the changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming" 113 : 301-321, 2012

118 Min, S. -K., "Assessing human contribution to the summer 2013 Korean heat wave [In “Explaining extreme events of 2013 from a climate perspective”]" 95 : S48-S51, 2014

119 Oh, S. -K., "Assesment of the RegCM4 over East Asia and future precipitation change adapted to the RCP scenarios" 119 : 2913-2927, 2014

120 Kug J. -S., "Are there two types of La Niña?" 38 : L16704-, 2011

121 Cohen, J., "Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling" 7 : 14007-, 2012

122 Zwiers, F. W., "Anthropogenic influence on long return period daily temperature extremes at regional scales" 24 : 881-892, 2011

123 Kang, Y. Q., "Annual and interannual fluctuations of air temperature in Korea during the past 30 years (1954-1983)" 21 : 1-10, 1983

124 Hopsch, S., "Analysis of a link between fall Arctic sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter" 64 : 2012

125 이경미, "Analysis of Changes in Extreme Temperatures Using Quantile Regression" 한국기상학회 49 (49): 313-323, 2013

126 Wheeler, M. C., "An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction" 132 : 1917-1932, 2004

127 Choi, Y. -S., "Adaptive change in intra-winter distribution of relatively cold events to East Asian warming" 20 : 807-816, 2009

128 Ho, C. -H., "A sudden change in summer rainfall characteristics in Korea during the late 1970s" 23 : 117-128, 2003

129 Ahn J.-B., "A study on correlation between air-temperature and precipitation in Korea and SST over the tropical pacific" 33 : 487-495, 1997

130 Cha E. -J., "A study of characteristics of climate in South Korea for El Niño/La Niña year" 35 : 98-117, 1999

131 Yasunari, T., "A quasi-stationary appearance of 30 to 40 day period in the cloudiness fluctuation during the summer monsoon over India" 58 : 225-229, 1980

132 Franzke, C., "A novel method to test for significant trends in extreme values in serially dependent time series" 40 : 1392-1395, 2013

133 Kim, B.-M, "A new look at the mid latitude-MJO teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere winter" 132 : 485-503, 2006

134 Petoukhov, V., "A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents" 115 : D21111-, 2010

135 최의수, "56년간 한반도 강수 및 풍속의 극값 변화" 한국기상학회 18 (18): 397-416, 2008

136 하경자, "1909년 이후의 우리나라 4대 도시의 기온 경향과 극한 기후" 한국기상학회 40 (40): 1-16, 2004