Estimation of the Impact of an Increase of Ozone Concentration on the Net Primary Productivity of Forest and its Damage Costs

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Forests absorb and store CO2 through photosynthesis, which prevents global warming and provides numerous benefits to forests. In the past, acid rain was the primary danger to forests; more recently, ozone, nitrogen, and sulfur have been threatening forest ecosystems. In particular, ozone occupies most photochemical products, and because of its high toxicity, it directly damages plants. It is also expected that the concentration of air pollutants will increase as a results of future climate change. Korea is expected to see an increase in the concentration of ozone because of the introduction of ozone and ozone precursors from China.
The purpose of this study is to understand how 1) ozone affects the net primary productivity of forests and 2) estimate the future net primary productivity of forests affected by a change of ozone and to estimate the damage cost of such changes. To do this, we selected the variables necessary for determining the net primary productivity of forests by classifying variables related to weather, terrain, and atmospheric pollutants and used resources such as satellite images and atmospheric pollution data to measure each variable from 2001 to 2010. Using statistical models, we estimated the difference between the present and future net primary productivity of forests with and without ozone. In order to estimate the extent of future damage, we applied the concept of convenience and the concept of probability. In this study, damage cost is defined by using economic value concept and the definition of ecosystem service; damage cost is estimated for control service, indirect use value, use value, and total economic value.
According to the result of the analysis, the average net primary productivity of forests over the past 10 years averaged around 64 million . The non-parametric test confirmed that the net primary productivity of forests, NDVI and ozone concentration differed between regions. Because the NDVI differences were reflected in the analysis, there are no differences reported in the net primary productivity of forests by region in this study’s results. In addition, ozone is responsible for an average of 8.3% of net primary productivity within forests per year. This is expected to range from about 3.2% to about 13.3% in the future. The impact on net primary productivity of forests due to ozone varied depending on the definition utilized for application methodology and measuring damage cost. When the concept of probability is applied only to the regulation service which has a direct relation to the net primary productivity of forests, the minimum value of the damage cost is about 401 billion KRW, and when metric regression is applied to the maximum value by applying the concept of total economic value, the value increases to roughly 4,653 billion KRW. The estimated cost of damage is about 0.3% of the maximum current GDP. The results of this study suggest that there may be a difference of up to 11 times depending on the definition of damage cost and the method used to estimate damage cost.
The significance of this study is that the estimation of net primary productivity of forests in the future is reflected not only in climate data but also in the utilized clinical data through NDVI. It is also important to predict ozone concentration based on the emissions rather than to make assumptions utilizing a simple scenario to determine the prediction of ozone concentration. Furthermore, small-scale research that was conducted at the laboratory level was analyzed using actual observational data. We have found that there is a large variation in the definition of damage cost and the methodology applied to estimate potential future benefits and damage costs. This implies that there is a risk of underestimation or overestimation of the effects of certain variables on climate change.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 1. Introduction 1
• 1.1 Background and Purpose 1
• 1.2 Study Flow 5
• 2. Literature Review 8
• 2.1 Effects of Climate Change and Ozone on Net Primary Productivity of Forests 8
• 2.2 Impact Assessment Methods of Net Primary Productivity of Forests 10
• 2.3 Estimation Methods of Damage Cost 11
• 2.4 Conclusion 14
• 3. Study Scope and Methods 16
• 3.1 Study Scope 16
• 3.1.1 Content Scope 16
• 3.1.2 Spatial Scope 17
• 3.1.3 Time Scope 19
• 3.2 Methods 20
• 3.2.1 Impact assessment of net primary productivity on forests by climate change and ozone 20
• 3.2.2 Estimation of damage cost to the net primary productivity of forests 32
• 4. Results and Discussion 40
• 4.1 Impact assessment of the net primary productivity of forests by ozone 40
• 4.1.1 Development of the net primary productivity of forest impact assessment model 40
• 4.1.3 Estimation of current net primary productivity of forests and damage due to ozone 45
• 4.1.4 Estimation of the future net primary productivity of forests and damage due to ozone 50
• 4.2 Estimation of the damage cost to the net primary productivity of forests 60
• 4.2.1 Estimation of damage cost using benefit transfer 60
• 4.2.2 Estimation of cost of damage by application of probability 66
• 4.2.3 Damage costs of net primary productivity of forest due to future ozone effects 72
• 5. Conclusion 78
• 6. Bibliography 83
• 7. Appendix 99