住宅政策이 住宅價格에 미치는 影響에 관한 硏究 = (A) study on the effect of housing policy on housing prices

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study was intended to identify the effect of housing-related policy and microeconomic variables on housing prices in the housing market in which the rise and fall of housing prices periodically occurs in a repeated way as government has promoted the inconsistent housing policy of reinforcing and easing regulations. To analyze the effect of housing policy on housing prices, this study conducted empirical analysis about the effect of housing-related policy and macroeconomic variables on housing prices based on the trend analysis of the housing market and the evaluation of effectiveness. The ultimate purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of housing policy and find out suggestions to establish the most efficient and effective housing policy in the future.
In the empirical analysis method, it attempted to test the stability of time-series data and construct the interpretative model after analyzing the mutual influence between variables through Granger causality test. An attempt was made to analyze effectiveness by comparing impulse sensitivity, the direction of impulse and the duration of impulse through impulse response analysis using the constructed VAR model. And in conducting logistic regression analysis, an attempt was made to make an empirical analysis of the effect of housing policy on housing prices by evaluating the explanatory power of the model and significance through regression analysis. As a result, the following conclusion was drawn:
First, an attempt was made to analyze the contents of housing regulation in each of the past regimes in the normal phase. It was found that each of the past regimes periodically repeatedly utilized the housing policy of invigorating economy and curbing speculation in housing.
Second, the economy-invigorating policy was mostly the policy that had the following effect after the announcement of housing policy, whereas the speculation-curbing policy was mostly the policies that had the leading effect before its announcement.
Third, an attempt was made to analyze the trends of changes in the country-wide housing sale price by type of housing over the period between 1998 and 2009. It was found that they showed 91.7% for apartment housing, 40.1% for tenement house and 6.4% for detached house.
Fourth, the residence-stabilizing police for common people and the housing policy had Granger causality with the housing sale prices of all areas including country-wide area, Seoul, Kangbuk district, Kangnam district and wide-area cities. It can be analogized that the nationwide housing market has an effect on the residence-stabilizing police for common people and the housing policy. But it was found that the new town policy had no effect on it as it had no Granger causality with regional housing sales prices. It was found that the housing policy had a Granger causality with a new town policy, and the housing policy had an effect on a new town policy.
Fifth, the impulse response effect of the residence-stabilizing police for common people showed the response in a negative direction in all regions over all periods, and government's residence-stabilizing policy contributed to the stabilization of the housing market to some extent. Especially, it was found that the impulse response of Seoul and Kangnam district had the class "A" impulse in Roh Mu-hyun Administration. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that all regions were statistically significant except Kangnam district in Roh Mu-hyun Administration. The explanatory power of the model showed the very high value of 15.9% in Seoul and 15.9% in the Kangbuk district, which indicates that the residence-stabilizing policy for common people had a considerable effect.
Sixth, the impulse response effect of the new town policy showed the relatively weak sensitivity and a short duration of impulse response. It was found to have a inappreciable effect on housing prices. In the period of Kim Dae-jung Administration, the development of new towns to substitute for the Kangnam district acted to raise the housing prices the Kangnam district. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that impulse response was not statistically significant in all regions in the period of Kim Dae-jung Administration but statistically significant in all regions in the period of Roh Mu-hyun Administration. The explanatory power of the model showed the very high value of 16.0% in the Kangbuk district and 5.0% in the Kangnam district. It was found that the new town policy had a considerable effect on the Kangbuk district and the metropolitan area.
Seventh, the economy-invigorating policy of Kim Dae-jung Administration as part of housing policy showed the impulse response effect in a negative direction in all regions over all periods. It was found to have the impulse response effect by showing a minimal positive direction in the period of Lee Myeong-bak Administration. And the results of logistic regression analysis showed that the impulse response was statistically significant in all regions. The explanatory power of the model was 18.2% in the Kangnam district. The economy-invigorating policy implemented in Kim Dae-jung Administration was most sensitively responsive to the Kangnam district, acting to raise the housing sale price.
Eighth, the effect of impulse response to the speculation-curbing policy of Roh Mu-hyun Administration showed impulse response in a negative direction in all regions over all periods. This was found to be contrary to the effect of speculation-curbing policy by government. And the results of logistic regression analysis showed that impulse response was statistically significant in all regions. The explanatory power of the model was 17.0% in the Kangbuk district. It showed the most sensitive response to the speculation-curbing policy of Roh Mu-hyun Administration. But it did not act sensitively to the Kangnam district. The housing price in the Kangnam district rose highly due

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 제2절 연구의 범위와 구성 4
• 1. 연구의 범위 및 방법 4
• 2. 연구의 구성 7
• 제3절 선행연구의 검토 10
• 1. 선행연구 고찰 10
• 2. 선행연구와의 차별성 20
• 제2장 주택정책과 주택가격에 관한 이론적 고찰 21
• 제1절 주택정책에 관한 이론 21
• 1. 주택정책의 의의 21
• 2. 주택정책의 필요성 22
• 3. 주택관련 법제와 정책 내용 23
• 4. 주택정책의 목표와 수단 25
• 제2절 주택시장에 관한 이론 29
• 1. 주택시장의 의의 29
• 2. 주택시장의 특성 30
• 3. 주택정책수단으로서 수요·공급과 주택가격 31
• 제3절 주택정책의 변천 33
• 1. IMF이전의 주택정책(1962~1997) 34
• 2. IMF이후의 주택정책(1998~2009) 42
• 3. IMF이후 주요 서민주거안정정책 47
• 4. IMF이후 제2기 신도시개발정책 50
• 제3장 주택시장의 동향분석과 주택정책의 효과성 평가 53
• 제1절 주택시장의 동향분석 53
• 1. 지역별 주택매매가지수의 동향분석 53
• 2. 주택유형별 주택매매가지수의 동향분석 54
• 3. 정권별 전국 주택매매가격의 동향 분석 61
• 4. 서울강남과 강북지역의 아파트매매가격 우세지역 분석 62
• 5. 주택유형별 주택매매가의 계절적 특성분석 63
• 제2절 주택정책의 분류 64
• 1. 주택정책의 목표 64
• 2. 주택정책의 수단 67
• 3. 주요 주택정책의 목표와 수단 분석 71
• 4. 연구대상 주택정책의 선정 73
• 제3절 주택정책의 효과성 평가 74
• 1. 주택정책의 효과성 평가 기준 74
• 2. 주택매매 유형별 주택정책의 효과성 분석 76
• 3. 아파트매매 지역별 주택정책의 효과성 분석 78
• 제4장 주택정책이 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석 79
• 제1절 분석방법의 고찰 79
• 1. 분석의 틀 79
• 2. 분석방법 81
• 제2절 변수선정 85
• 1. 주택관련 정책지수 85
• 2. 거시경제관련 변수 87
• 3. 변수의 선정 92
• 제3절 VAR모형을 이용한 실증분석 92
• 1. 시계열자료의 안정성 검증 92
• 2. 주택관련 정책에 의한 충격반응분석 105
• 3. 거시경제변수에 의한 충격반응분석 109
• 4. 정권별 주택관련 정책에 의한 충격반응분석 113
• 5. 주택관련 정책과 거시경제변수에 의한 충격반응분석 결과 종합 119
• 제3절 로짓회귀분석을 이용한 실증분석 126
• 1. 전기간에 대한 로짓회귀분석 126
• 2. 김대중 정부에 대한 로짓회귀분석 128
• 3. 노무현 정부에 대한 로짓회귀분석 131
• 4. 로짓회귀분석 결과 종합 133
• 제5장 결론 136
• 1.연구 결과 및 시사점 136
• 2.연구의 한계 141
• 참고문헌 143
• 부록 153
• ABSTRACT 160