열차 지연 예측을 위한 DEVS 기반 시뮬레이션 모델 개발 = Development of a DEVS-Based Simulation Model for Predicting Train Delays

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Trains play a pivotal role in modern transportation systems due to their high speed and transport efficiency. However, train operations can be disrupted by unusual events such as technical failures, human errors, and natural disasters, which may lead to the propagation of delays, reduced service reliability, and significant economic losses. This study analyzes the causes of train delays during such unusual events and investigates how CTC (Centralized Traffic Control) affects delay patterns at a microscopic level. To this end, a simulation model was developed based on the DEVS(Discrete Event Systems Specifications) formalism, which enables the representation of train operations and interactions. The simulation results showed that the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error) between the scheduled and simulated arrival times was 0.36%. By applying the single-track blockage scenario, the model was able to analyze train operations, classify the causes of delays, predict delays, and identify changes in operation times for each train. The outcomes of this study are expected to serve as a practical foundation for devising train control strategies and formulating policy measures for managing unusual events.