SSP기반 남한상세 기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 온난화 수준(1.5, 2.0, 3.0℃)별 우리나라 기후변화 전망 = High-resolution projection of future climate change over South Korea under global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C based on shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, we projected climate change by region over South Korea under Global Warming Levels (GWL) of 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0°C using new high-resolution (1 km) simulations. We combined 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and used them for future projection. The findings indicate that, as global warming progresses, the annual mean temperature in South Korea will increase by +0.7, +1.4, and +2.6°C, respectively, compared to present-day (2000 ~ 2019). There is no significant change in total precipitation under the 1.5°C GWL condition. However, an increase of +4.0% (+5.8%) is expected under the 2.0°C (3.0°C) GWL condition, with a significant increase in precipitation expected during the months of July to September. The study also finds that extreme high-temperature indices are projected to increase more significantly than the annual mean temperature, suggesting that future annual temperature ranges may increase.
Additionally, extreme climate indices for precipitation are projected to increase unless GWL is limited to 1.5°C, with a notable impact in the Jeju area. The results of this study are expected to be used as fundamental data for establishment of national climate change adaptation policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 박종철 ; 임윤진 ; 장동호, "풍속 내삽에 활용하기 위한 MK-PRISM의 개선" 기후연구소 9 (9): 225-241, 2014

2 김선태 ; 이우섭 ; 정일원 ; 한정민 ; 변영화 ; 김진욱, "미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 한반도 유역별 극한 강수 변화 전망" 한국기후변화학회 14 (14): 83-93, 2023

3 김진욱 ; 김맹기 ; 김연희, "독립적인 기온 감률에 기초한 MK-PRISM의 개선" 기후연구소 8 (8): 203-215, 2013

4 Jordan G. Powers, "The Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Overview, System Efforts, and Future Directions" American Meteorological Society 98 (98): 1717-1737, 2017

5 Burkhard Rockel, "The Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM (CCLM)" Schweizerbart 17 (17): 347-348, 2008

6 홍성유 ; 박훈 ; 정형빈 ; 김정은 ; 구명서 ; 장지현 ; 함수륜 ; 황승오 ; 박병권 ; 장은철 ; Haiqin Li, "The Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs)" 한국기상학회 49 (49): 219-243, 2013

7 김맹기 ; 김선애 ; Jinuk Kim ; Jin Heo ; Jeong-Soo Park ; Won-Tae Kwon ; 서명석, "Statistical Downscaling for Daily Precipitation in Korea Using Combined PRISM, RCM, and Quantile Mapping: Part 1, Methodology and Evaluation in Historical Simulation" 한국기상학회 52 (52): 79-89, 2016

8 김진욱 ; 김태준 ; 김도현 ; 변영화 ; 장은철 ; 차동현 ; 안중배 ; 민승기, "SSP 시나리오 기반 CORDEX-동아시아 2단계 다중 기후모델의 동아시아 지역 모의 성능평가 및 미래 전망 분석" 한국기후변화학회 13 (13): 339-354, 2022

9 김진욱 ; 상정 ; 김맹기 ; 변영화 ; 김도현 ; 김태준, "SSP 기반 고해상도 남한상세 기후변화 시나리오를 통한 우리나라 미래 기후 전망" 기후연구소 17 (17): 89-106, 2022

10 V. V. Kharin, "Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity" Wiley 6 (6): 704-715, 2018

11 UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), "Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 11 December 2015"

12 Hosking JRM, "Regional frequancy analysis" Cambridge University Press 1997

13 F Giorgi, "RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains" Inter-Research Science Center 52 : 7-29, 2012

14 김선애 ; 김맹기, "PRIDE 모델 버전 2.0의 검증" 기후연구소 13 (13): 71-86, 2018

15 Jeong‐Bae Kim, "Intensified hydroclimatic regime in Korean basins under 1.5 and 2°C global warming" Wiley 40 (40): 1965-1978, 2019

16 Sang-Min Lee, "Heat Stress Changes over East Asia under 1.5° and 2.0°C Global Warming Targets" American Meteorological Society 31 (31): 2819-2831, 2018

17 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), "Global warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty" IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2022

18 Donghuan Li, "Extreme High‐Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low‐Warming Experiments" American Geophysical Union (AGU) 45 (45): 1541-1550, 2018

19 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), "Climate change 2023:Synthesis report" IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2023

20 Gwangyong Choi, "Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia‐Pacific Network region, 1955–2007" Wiley 29 (29): 1906-1925, 2009

21 Y Zhou, "Change in extreme temperature event frequency over mainland China, 1961−2008" Inter-Research Science Center 50 (50): 125-139, 2011

22 김도현 ; 김진욱 ; 김태준 ; 변영화 ; 장은철 ; 차동현 ; 안중배 ; 민승기, "CORDEX-EA Phase 2 다중 지역기후모델 앙상블을 이용한 전지구 온난화 제한 목표(1.5, 2.0℃)하에서의 한반도 미래 기온 전망" 한국기후변화학회 13 (13): 525-543, 2022

23 Stuart Coles, "An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values" Springer 2001

24 T. Davies, "A new dynamical core for the Met Office's global and regional modelling of the atmosphere" Wiley 131 (131): 1759-1782, 2005

25 김맹기 ; 한명수 ; 장동호 ; 백승균 ; 이우섭 ; 김연희 ; 김성, "1km 해상도의 관측 격자자료 생산 기술" 기후연구소 7 (7): 55-68, 2012

26 심성보 ; 권상훈 ; 임윤진 ; 염성수 ; 변영화, "1.5/2.0℃ 지구온난화 시나리오 기반의 동아시아 기후변화 분석" 한국기상학회 29 (29): 391-401, 2019