옵션 가격결정모형을 활용한 적정 방위비 분담금 추정: 2011년, 2012년 방위비 분담금 지출액을 중심으로 = An Estimation of the Validity of Defense Cost Sharing of the United States Forces Korea Using “Real Option Pricing Model”: concentrating on the budget contribution in 2011, 2012

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The research is to estimate the validity of Korea’s annual contribution to the budget for maintaining the United States Forces Korea. Defining the put option as USFK’s role and value in order to confront crisis. It has estimated the strategic value(put premium) of the USFK by determining its price. Approaching the USFK as “Real Options” rather than “Financial Options”. We defined Korea’s economic scale prior to the wartime as “S(Spot price)” and after the breakout in time of US reinforcement as “K(Strike price)”. “K(Strike price)” is based on the Korea-U.S war scenario were calculated by considering loss of the civil and military sector. in this study, “K(Strike price)” is subtracted mobilization costs, investment costs, loss rate of the Korea from “S(Spot price)”. By comparing put option price approved by Black-Shoulds model with the amount of Korea’s budget contribution to the USFK. we try to evaluate the efficiency of National Defense expenses and to lay out a logical basis for negotiation with the United States.
As a result, the interval of the strategic value is between 900 billion to 3.9trillion won in case of automatic intervention of US reinforcements, allowing Korea’s payments of 812billion and 836 billion won toward the USFK in 2011 and 2012 to be theoretically fairly valued as a Real Option price. The research can be lack of the reality because of the wide range of results, but we are able to get a more precise value by war scenario being kept secret. Considering the rate of change in Gross Domestic Product(GDP) after the wartime, the fair price of Put Option has been exponentially higher the sooner the US forces are augmented.
Though there have been numerous studies on what would be the fair amount of the defense cost sharing in economical perspective, none of them yet succeeded in satisfying the palate of the United States. in other words, Most of the study was a lack of objectivity and rationality to appeal to the emotions or claims by simple comparison logic.This research endeavored to be rational by analysing the rate of change in GDP approached by the real option method and to be practical by reflecting the probability of damage according to the war scenario. It is the first attempt in estimating the contribution scale to the budget using the real options approach and is expected to play the satisfactory role for the future SMA(Special Measure Agreement) as the bargaining chip.

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