4차 산업혁명에 의한 일자리 대체의 사회적 영향 분석: 빈곤갭을 활용한 사회적 비용 추계를 중심으로

이채정,허종호,윤난희 단국대학교 융합사회연구소 2020 공공정책과 국정관리 Vol.14 No.1

This study analyzes the social impact of job replacement caused by technological innovation of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In the study, the data predicting job replacement caused by the Fourth Industrial Revolution are combined with the data from the 20th Korea Labor and Income Panel study in order to estimate the social cost of job replacement using the concept of poverty gap according to the scenarios based on the years 2020 and 2025. In addition, social demographic characteristics of groups vulnerable to reduced disposable income due to job replacement are identified. According to the analysis, social costs arising from job replacement are estimated at 6.6 trillion won in 2020 and 8.3 trillion won in 2025. Besides, those with relatively high earned income (whose labor market experience is long and the quality of job is high) tend to be vulnerable towards reduced disposable income due to job replacement. The financial sustainability of the social policy system should be strengthened through readjustment of taxation systems and social insurance systems that take into account industries, income classes, household composition, etc. to cope with declining unemployment and earned income since job replacement by technological innovation could be a threat not only to the existing vulnerable, but also to the middle class. Further studies are required to analyze the social impact of the emergence of new jobs created by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the effects of the overhaul of the taxation system, such as robot taxes. 본 연구는 4차 산업혁명이 유발하는 일자리 대체의 사회적 영향을 파악하기 위하여, 빈곤갭 개념을 적용하여 기술혁신에 의한 직무대체의 사회적 비용을 추계하였다. 이를 위하여, 4차 산업혁명에 의한 일자리 대체를 전망한 자료와 제20차 한국노동패널 원자료를 결합하여 일자리 대체가 유발할 사회적 비용을 시나리오별로 추산하였다. 또한, 일자리 대체로 인한 가처분소득 감소에 취약한 집단의 사회인구학적 특성을 파악하였다. 분석 결과, 4차 산업혁명에 의한 직무대체로 발생하는 사회적 비용은 2020년 6.6조원, 2025년 8.3조원으로 추산되었다. 또한, 상대적으로 근로소득이 높은 계층(노동시장 이력이 길고, 일자리의 질이 높은 경우)이 일자리 대체로인한 가처분소득 감소에 취약한 것으로 추정되었다. 기술혁신에 의한 일자리 대체가 기존 취약계층뿐만 아니라 중산층에게도 위협적일 수 있으므로, 실업 및 근로소득 감소에 대응하기 위한업종, 소득계층, 가구구성 등을 고려한 과세체계 및 사회보험제도 정비를 통해 사회정책의 재정적 지속가능성을 강화해야 한다. 후속 연구에서는 4차 산업혁명에 의한 새로운 일자리의 출현과 로봇세 등 과세체계의 개편 효과를 고려한 사회적 영향을 분석할 필요가 있다.

인공지능과 로봇기술의 노동시장 파급효과 분석을 위한 일자리 대체가능성 지수의 개발

구교준,김지원,최영빈,김규환,홍지은 서울대학교 한국행정연구소 2024 행정논총 Vol.62 No.3

The impact of artificial intelligence and the Fourth Industrial Revolution on employment is projected to be profound. These technologies are distinguished by their ability to automate not only routine and non-cognitive tasks but also cognitive and non-routine tasks. However, existing research has predominantly focused on the automation of routine non-cognitive tasks. This study aims to address the limitations of prior research by offering a more comprehensive analysis of the future labor market taking into account the combined effects of artificial intelligence and robotics technologies. To achieve this, the study utilizes ONET data from the United States. This outlines the abilities and skills required for various job roles and additionally incorporates expert survey evaluations of how robotics and artificial intelligence can replace these skills and abilities, thereby deriving an AI job replacement index for each occupation. The study analyzes the anticipated changes and current status of the labor market in South Korea as well as potential future impacts based on this index. The analysis reveals that over half of the jobs in the South Korean labor market are at risk of being replaced. Furthermore, there has been a declining trend in the proportion of jobs with high replacement potential over the past decade. Conversely, while jobs that are difficult to replace represent the smallest share of the labor market, their proportion has gradually increased. The findings of this study highlight the importance of policy efforts to mitigate labor market imbalances between occupations and facilitate job transitions, such as strengthening mechanisms that ease occupational shifts.

Statistical analysis of the employment future for Korea

Lee, SangHyuk,Park, Sang-Gue,Lee, Chan Kyu,Lim, Yaeji The Korean Statistical Society 2020 Communications for statistical applications and me Vol.27 No.4

We examine the rate of substitution of jobs by artificial intelligence using a score called the "weighted ability rate of substitution (WARS)." WARS is a indicator that represents each job's potential for substitution by automation and digitalization. Since the conventional WARS is sensitive to the particular responses from the employees, we consider a robust version of the indicator. In this paper, we propose the individualized WARS, which is a modification of the conventional WARS, and compute robust averages and confidence intervals for inference. In addition, we use the clustering method to statistically classify jobs according to the proposed individualized WARS. The proposed method is applied to Korean job data, and proposed WARS are computed for five future years. Also, we observe that 747 jobs are well-clustered according to the substitution levels.

Does Automation Raise Enthusiasm or Worry?

( Taewoo Nam ) 한국행정학회 2018 한국행정학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2018 No.동계

This study explores what influences citizen attitudes about job replacement by robotic automation and about policy options addressing the replacement effect. To that end, Pew Research Center’s 2017 American Trends Panel Wave data are analyzed. The juxtaposition between enthusiasm and worry about impacts of job replacement by robotic automation creates a bi-dimensional view of citizen attitudes, thereby manifesting four attitudinal categories: optimism (high enthusiasm and low worry), pessimism (low enthusiasm and high worry), skepticism (low enthusiasm and low worry), and hybrid (high enthusiasm and high worry). The regression-based analysis predicts whether an individual belongs to each attitudinal category and the degree to which he or she supports policy options (guaranteed income, robot quotas, extra pay for human interaction, and national program for displaced workers) with awareness, perceived likelihood, and expected positive outcomes of job replacement. This analysis also found that attitudes differ with ideology and partisanship considerably.

정형대체 기술진보와 해외 업무위탁이 한국의 고용양극화에 미치는 영향

이재혁,심명규,양희승 한국노동경제학회 2026 노동경제논집 Vol.49 No.1

This paper analyzes the impact of Routine-Replacing Technological Change (RRTC) and the increasing offshore outsourcing on occupational labor demand from 2005 to 2019 in South Korea. Both factors can reduce the demand for middle skilled job, which involves simple repetitive -routine- tasks and can be done abroad remotely, leading to job polarization. According to the empirical analysis, based on structural model by Goos et al. (2014), a 1-standard deviation difference in routine intensity corresponds to a 0.4-percent point reduction in growth in labor demand within all industries, while a higher level of offshorability does not have a significant effect. These results suggest that the main cause of job polarization in Korea is RRTC.

“우리는 러다이트가 아니다”: 이미지 생성 AI와 일러스트레이터들의 사회기술적 저항

배연우,하대청 한국과학기술학회 2025 과학기술학연구 Vol.25 No.3

As generative AI expands into artistic domains traditionally reliant on human creativity, tensions between creators and AI developers have intensified. In particular, image-generating systems like Midjourney and NovelAI have trained on hundreds of millions of images sourced from the internet, producing outputs that closely resemble those of human illustrators. In response, the illustrator community has voiced strong criticism and, in some cases, resorted to countermeasures such as Nightshade and Glaze—programs designed to disrupt indiscriminate image scraping. However, certain developers and online communities have dismissed these actions as reckless and emotional resistance, likening them to the historical Luddite movement. This paper argues that such a framing—pitting technological rationality against creators’ rights—oversimplifies the issue. Instead, it reinterprets the conflict through the lens of sociotechnical assemblages. By analyzing the shared norms of the illustrator community, this study reveals the deeper, multilayered foundations of their resistance. Drawing on interviews with practicing illustrators in South Korea and analyses of related social media discussions, the research demonstrates that illustrators’ critique and direct actions against AI stem from their own internal norms, professional practices, and labor ecology, all of which lend legitimacy to their stance. The findings highlight how illustrators’ collective norms of valuing originality stand in opposition to developers’ instrumental pursuit of imitation, and how their precarious working conditions and the “so-so imitation” quality of current AI technologies have shaped their resistance strategies. Ultimately, the paper contends that illustrators’ resistance represents a form of sociotechnical resistance—a demand for respect in the face of “disrespectful technologies.” It further argues that the current stage of generative AI, far from being neutral, risks deepening the stratification of artistic labor. The study concludes by calling for a slower, more attentive ethnographic observation of this ongoing sociotechnical experiment, rather than premature judgments framed by the discourse of job replacement.

AI 비서에 대한 직무 종사자와 관리자의 인식 유형 연구

이선미,윤혜정 한국지식경영학회 2018 지식경영연구 Vol.19 No.2

The purpose of this study was to investigate the perception about AI assistants and the differences between two groups, workers(secretaries) and supervisors(bosses), using the Q-methodology which has an advantage in understanding the types of subjective perceptions. Through literature reviews and interviews, 34 Q-samples were extracted, and then Q-sorting was conducted by P-samples(20 workers and 15 supervisors). As a result of Q-sorting, the types and characteristics of AI assistants perceived by each P-sample were explained. The perception of the workers divided into five distinct types, and the perception of the supervisors was divided into three distinct types. The most crucial factors in distinguishing between workers and supervisors' perceptions depend on whether they are capable of performing certain tasks and whether they can replace existing secretarial jobs. This study, as the primary research on AI assistants, can help to redefine the work that can be replaced by AI and the work that only people can do, and thus to establish education, recruitment, and training plans.

기술혁신에 따른 직무대체의 사회적 영향 탐색 : 사회적 비용 추계와 사회적 인식 검토를 중심으로

이채정(LEE, Chae-jeong),조희찬(CHO, Hee-chan),장윤정(CHANG, Yoon jeong) 강원대학교 사회과학연구원 2021 사회과학연구 Vol.60 No.1

4차 산업혁명에 따른 지능정보사회의 도래는 노동과 고용관계를 다각도에서 변화시킬 것이라는 예측이 지배적이다. 전통적으로 인간에 의해 행해지던 생산활동을 네트워크, 인공지능, 로봇 등 혁신적 기술이 빠르게 대체하게 되어, 기술혁신의 영향에 취약한 분야에 종사하던 인간은 실직하거나, 급여가 감소하여 소득수준이 낮아지는 등의 변화에 처하게 된다는 것이다. 본 논문은 이러한 관점에서 진행된 기존의 기술혁신에 따른 직무대체율 연구에 기반하여, 직무대체가 일어날 경우 소득수준 하락으로 인해 한국 사회에 필요하게 될 공공부조 증가분과 조세수입 및 사회보험료 감소분를 추계하고, 직무대체로 인한 소득 감소와 사회적 인식의 관계를 탐색하였다. 2018년 기준의 직종별 직무대체율을 한국노동패널 원자료의 소득정보에 적용하여 추계한 결과, 빈곤비용은 42∼54% 증가하며, 소득세수는 45∼57% 감소하고, 사회보험료수입은 10∼16% 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 자산 및 소득 수준이 낮고, 가구의 경제상태를 부정적으로 인식하는 경우 직무대체로 인한 가처분소득 감소폭도 클 것으로 분석되었다. 뿐만 아니라, 직무대체로 인한 가처분소득 감소폭이 큰 가구 중에서도 자산수준이 낮은 가구에서는 5년 뒤 삶의 질에 대한 주관적 전망이 낮아지지만, 자산수준이 높은 경우에는 삶의 질에 대한 전망에 유의한 영향이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석 결과는 직무대체에 의한 국가의 사회지출 투입 재원 감소가 현행 사회보장체계 유지에 부정적인 영향을 미치며, 실직과 급여 감소 등에 의해 양극화 문제가 심화할 수 있음을 시사한다. The advent of the intelligent information society, as a result of the fourth industrial revolution, is often perceived as a threat that will redefine a wide range of jobs. Technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots penetrate the domain of tasks that were regarded as highly sophisticated for machines to emulate and may lead to extensive technological unemployment. This study estimates the amount of increase needed in public assistance in Korean society due to the anticipated decrease in tax revenue and social insurance premiums from automation. Using the data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study and the predicted level of unemployment from former studies, we show that the poverty cost is expected to increase by 42-54%. Moreover, income tax revenue is estimated to decrease by 45-57%, while social insurance premiums decrease by 10-16%. Households with low income or assets were more vulnerable to the reduction in disposable income due to job displacement. This study also shows that the subjective outlook for the quality of life of wealthy households was not as significantly affected by the decreased disposable income due to automation as that of households with fewer assets. These results suggest that the job replacement by technological innovation may undermine the upkeep of the current social security system and worsen income inequality.

생성형 AI의 직업 대체에 관한 대학생의 인식 연구

안재영,심소연,윤혜정 한국비서학회 2024 비서·사무경영연구 Vol.33 No.1

본 연구에서는 범용 AI의 일상화를 가능하게 한 생성형 AI에 대한 대학생의 인식을 알아보고 이를 유형화하고자 하였다. 특히 생성형 AI의 업무적 역량과 직업 및 업무의 대체 가능성에 대한 대학생들의 주관적인 견해를 이해하는 데에 중점을 두었다. 먼저 YouTube 댓글과 최신 뉴스를 바탕으로 내용 분석을 수행하여 Q표본을 구축한 후, 주관적인 인식 구조를 탐색하는 데에 주로 활용되는 Q 방법론을 통해 대학생들의 생성형 AI에 대한 인식 유형을 파악하였다. 분석 결과, ‘업무보조 수단으로 인식’, ‘직업 시장의 게임 체인저로 인식’, ‘전문성을 갖춘 업무 파트너로 인식’, ‘특정 직업의 대체재로 인식’의 4개 그룹으로 유형화되었다. 본 연구결과는 대학생들이 생성형 AI가직업 시장에 가져올 수 있는 변화를 어떻게 인식하고 있는가에 대한 고찰을 통해, AI 기술의 발전이 미래 근로 환경에 가져올 변화에 대한 새로운 통찰을 얻고, 나아가 교육자, 정책 입안자, 생성형 AI 개발자에게 중요한 시사점을 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. This study examined university students' perceptions of generative AI, which enables the mainstream use of artificial intelligence (AI). In particular, this study focused on understanding undergraduate students' subjective interceptions regarding the capabilities of generative AI, and its potential job replacement content analysis was conducted based on YouTube comments and recent news to build a Q-sample. The Q-methodology was performed to categorize the perceptions of generative AI. The research findings revealed four groups: 'Perceived as an assistance tool,' 'Perceived as a game changer in the job market,' 'Perceived as a partner with expertise,' and 'Perceived as a substitute for specific occupations.' The research findings offer insights into how university students perceive the changes that generative AI could bring to the job market and provide new insights into the potential impact of AI on future work environments. Furthermore, it offers practical implications for educators, policymakers, and generative AI developers.

과학기술과 일자리 정책에 관한 연구: 신기술에 대한 인식이 일자리 인식에 미치는 영향을 중심으로

박건우,김영재 명지대학교(서울캠퍼스) 정부혁신연구소 2022 정부행정 Vol.18 No.1

Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence(AI) and robots, which are recognized as core elements of the 4th industrial revolution, have been promoting societal changes in recent years. Based on the Korea Press Foundation's 'Survey on Robots and Our Society', this study analyzed the effects of science and technology, such as AI, robots, and automation, on job change at the individual level. The results showed that interest in science and technology was partially related to the benefits of robots and job replacement, and positive perceptions about robots were found to have a significant positive effect on not only job replacement but also the consequential benefits. Therefore, to minimize the negative impact of job loss caused by the emerging technologies, it is necessary to expand strategic efforts to raise the positive perception of individuals to alleviate potential threats and concerns about the technologies. This study provides useful information to proactively respond to the potential job issuess led by emerging technologies through an anaylsis at the individual level.