급성 췌장염의 시대적 변화

김배영(Bai Young Kim),김효종(Hyo Jong Kim),정형근(Hyung Keun Chung),김영관(Young Kwan Kim),동석호(Seok Ho Dong),김병호(Byung Ho Kim),이정일(Jung Il Lee),장영운(Young Woon Chang),장린(Rin Chang) 대한내과학회 1993 대한내과학회지 Vol.45 No.5

Background: According to the rapid changes in social environment such as increasing alcohol consumption and the marked improvement in diagnostic technique, we expect that there have been major changes in various aspects of acute pancreatitis during the recent 12 years in Korea. Methods: The medical records of 317 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed from 1980 through 1992 were reviewed about clinical, laboratory and radiological findings in the three different time period. Results: 1) There has been an increasing incidence in male sex about three folds. 2) There has been an increasing trends in the duration of hospitalization. 3) A significant increase was observed in the proportion of patients with alcoholic pancreatitis in the three different time period; 26.9%, 45.7%, 50.7% respectively. 4) The complication rates have been slightly increased in the three different time period; 46.3%, 47.1%, 59.1% respectively. But, the type of complications has not been changed. 5) There is increasing severity in non-gallstone group, but no significant differences in gallstone group. There is a declining trends in the number of patients with muld severity index, but increasing trend in the number of patients with moderate severity index in non-gallstone group. 6) There was no significant differences in mortality rate. Conclusions: There has been major changes in the etiology ans severity of acute pancreatitis from 1980 through 1992. Especially, significant increase in the proportion of patients with alcoholic pancreatitis was observed in the three differnt time period. These results might be due to socioeconomic changes.

기후 및 사회·경제 변화를 고려한 한강 유역의 물이용 취약성 평가

박혜선,김혜진,채여라,김연주 대한토목학회 2017 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.37 No.6

Assessment of vulnerability of water use to climate change include a variety of climate change scenarios. However, in most future vulnerability studies, only the climate change scenarios are used and not the future scenarios of social and economic indicators. Therefore, in this study, we applied the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario and Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathway (SSP) developed by IPCC to reflect the future. We selected indicators for estimating the vulnerability of water use, and indices were integrated with a multi-criteria decision making approach – Technique for Order of Preference bySimilarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The indicator data utilized national statistics and reports, social and economic scenarios, and simulated results from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which reflects climate change scenario. Finally, we derivedthe rankings of water use vulnerability for the short-term future (2020) and mid-term future (2050) within the Han River watershed. Generally, considering climate change alone and considering climate change plus social and economic changes showed a similar spatial distribution. In the future scenarios, the watershed rankings were similar, but showed differences with SSP scenario in some watersheds. Therefore, considering social and economic changes is expected to contribute to more effective responses to climate change. 수자원 분야에서 기후변화 취약성 평가 연구는 미래를 반영하는 기후변화 시나리오를 다양한 방법으로 적용하고 있다. 하지만 대부분의 미래취약성 평가 연구에서 미래 사회 및 경제 변화는 반영되지 않고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 통합적인 미래 시대상을 반영하기 위하여 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)에서 개발한 Reprensentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 기후 변화 시나리오와 함께 공동 사회·경제 경로 시나리오(Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathway, SSP)를 적용하고자 하였다. 취약성 평가는 현재 상황 뿐 아니라 미래 시나리오를 반영하기에 적절한 지표를 선정하고 다기준 의사결정기법인 TOPSIS (Technique for Order Performance bySimilarity to Ideal Solution)를 활용하여 각 지표를 통합하는 방법으로 진행하였다. 지표 자료는 국가 통계 및 보고서, 기후변화 시나리오가 반영된 SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형의 모의 결과, 사회·경제 시나리오를 활용하였으며, 최종적으로 주요 수계인 한강 유역의 단기 미래(2020)와 중기 미래(2050)에 대한 중권역별 물이용 취약성 순위를 도출하였다. 전반적으로 기후변화만 적용한 결과와 사회·경제 변화를 함께 적용한 결과는 유사한 공간분포를 보였으나, SSP 시나리오에 따라 일부 유역에서 차이를 보였다. 미래 시나리오 적용 시 유역의 순위변동성이 유사하게 나타났으나 일부에서는 SSP 시나리오 적용 유무에 따른 차이를 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 기후변화 취약성 분석 시 사회·경제 시나리오 활용가능성을 확인하였고, 이에 사회·경제 변화를 고려하는 것이 보다 효과적인 기후변화 대응에 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Riahi, Keywan,van Vuuren, Detlef P.,Kriegler, Elmar,Edmonds, Jae,O’Neill, Brian C.,Fujimori, Shinichiro,Bauer, Nico,Calvin, Katherine,Dellink, Rob,Fricko, Oliver,Lutz, Wolfgang,Popp, Alexander,Cuaresm Elsevier 2017 Global environmental change Vol.42 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO<SUB>2</SUB> to more than 120 GtCO<SUB>2</SUB> per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6W/m<SUP>2</SUP> that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2°C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> We present an overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which were developed as a community effort over the last years. </LI> <LI> The SSPs comprise five narratives and a set of driving forces. </LI> <LI> Our SSP scenarios quantify energy and land-use developments and associated uncertainties for greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. </LI> <LI> We conduct an SSP mitigation analysis, and estimate mitigation costs. We find that very low climate targets might be out of reach in SSPs featuring high challenges. </LI> <LI> The SSPs are now ready for use by the climate change research community. </LI> </UL> </P>

SSP 시나리오를 활용한 기후변화 민감 곤충 서식지 변화와 취약성 평가

이재호,이진,윤성수,이재석,서창완 (사)지오에이아이데이터학회 2024 GEO DATA Vol.6 No.4

Climate change significantly impacts the distribution and habitat suitability of insects,particularly those highly sensitive to environmental fluctuations. This study evaluatedthe habitat changes of 12 climate-sensitive insect species in South Korea under sharedsocioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, using random forest(RF) models. Bioclimatic variables, including annual mean temperature (BIO1) andannual precipitation (BIO12), were identified as key contributors to habitat suitabilitychanges. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with receiver operatingcharacteristic (ROC) values exceeding 0.8 for five species, such as Papilio helenusand Argynnis hyperbius, while six species, including Sympetrum pedemontanumelatum, exhibited lower predictability due to data distribution challenges. The resultsrevealed that SSP2-4.5 allowed more stable or expanding habitats for certain species,such as Argynnis hyperbius and Lampides boeticus, where habitat areas significantlyincreased by 2070. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 showed drastic habitat reductions for mostspecies, including Camponotus kiusiuensis and Sympetrum pedemontanum elatum,with some habitats shrinking by over 90% by 2090. The study underscores theimportance of climate variables, with temperature and precipitation consistentlyinfluencing habitat changes across species. This research provides critical insightsinto the ecological risks posed by climate change and emphasizes the necessity ofmitigation strategies. While some species demonstrate adaptive potential undermoderate scenarios, others face severe vulnerabilities under extreme climateconditions. These findings offer valuable guidance for biodiversity conservation andpolicy-making, highlighting the need for integrated approaches that account fornon-climatic factors such as land-use changes.

기후변화와 대기오염으로 인한 건강영향 연구: 사회경제적 변수에 따른 사망영향

배현주,하종식,임유라 한국환경연구원 2011 기본연구보고서 Vol.2011 No.-

Mortality and morbidity related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change. This study aims to (1) examine whether temperature modified ozone effects on mortality, (2) explore whether such effect modification varies with socioeconomic status (SES), and (3) predict the number of excess death at mid-century(2054~2056) due to temperature and ozone under a climate change. We used a time-series approach to explore weather temperature modified the association between ozone and mortality in Seoul during 1999-2009 in summer. In order to examine the interactive effect between temperature and ozone on mortality, we fitted a response surface model controlling the time-trends and meteorological variables. To quantitatively estimate the ozone-health outcome associations across different temperature levels, we separately fitted the stratification model. For a 10 ppb increase in ozone concentration, the contributions of mortality were 0.40%, 0.30%, and 1.61% corresponding to all, low (below the threshold temperature) and high (above the threshold temperature) levels of temperature among persons 30 years of age and older. Results show that in general, in summer, temperature significantly and positively modified the ozone-mortality association. We analyzed that socioeconomic status might itself play a role in the mortality associated with exposure to ozone and temperature. We examined whether SES, as marked by education, measure at individual level, modified the association of ozone-temperature with mortality in Seoul, Korea. When the temperature was high, for a 10 ppb increase in ozone concentration, the contributions of mortality were 2.42%, 1.98%, 1.46% for the low, middle, and high individual SES group, respectively. We examined whether SES, as marked by composite deprivation index, measure at regional level, modified the association of ozone-temperature with mortality in Seoul, Korea. When the temperature was high, for a 10 ppb increase in ozone concentration, the contribution of mortality were 1.89%, 1.56%, 1.54% for the low, middle, high regional SES group, respectively. Our analysis suggest that stratified by individual and regional SES, the effect of ozone-temperature on mortality tended to increase in the low SES. The relative risks of mortality during summer were applied to climate and ozone projections to calculate number of deaths above the baseline(2010) expected during projected summer in 2054~2056. The excess death due to ozone and modification effect of ozone and temperature was estimated in Seoul. The excess death due to modification effect of ozone and temperature was 2.4~2.7 times higher than the excess death due to ozone. The results of this study show that public health interventions aimed at protecting population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among the low SES.

‘내 것(mine)’의 힘: 주관적 사회경제적 지위와 친환경 행동의 관계에서 심리적 주인의식의 효과

권용주,박현아 한국마케팅학회 2026 마케팅연구 Vol.41 No.1

기후변화로 인하여 현대인들은 폭염, 폭우, 허리케인 증가 등 극한의 기상현상을 경험하고 있으며, 저지대 도시 시민들은 지구 온난화로 인한 해수면 상승으로 생존권까지 위협받는 등 복합적인 위기에 처해 있다. 이러한 상황 에서는 기후변화의 시계를 조금이라도 늦출 수 있도록 전 세계의 정부, 기업, 시민 등 다양한 구성원들의 노력과 실천이 절실하다. 생태계의 지속가능성을 위한 시민들의 친환경 행동을 촉진하기 위해서는 어떠한 특성의 소비자 가 무슨 심리적 동기를 가지고 친환경 행동에 참여하는지 규명할 필요가 있으며, 학계에서도 시민들의 친환경 행 동의 다양한 선행변수와 심리적 기제를 연구한 바 있다. 본 연구에서는 친환경 행동의 선행 요인으로 주관적 사 회경제적 지위의 역할에 주목하였으며, 이들의 관계를 설명하는 심리적 기제로 환경에 대한 개인적 주인의식을 제안했다. 구체적으로, 본 연구에서는 주관적 사회경제적 지위가 높을수록 친환경 행동이 증가할 것이며, 이러한 관계는 환경을 내 것(mine)으로 경험하는 개인적 주인의식이 설명할 수 있을 것으로 예상하였다. 이러한 가설을 검증하기 위해 두 가지 연구를 수행하였다. 연구 1에서는 서울서베이 패널 데이터를 활용하여 주관적 사회경제 적 지위가 높을수록 친환경 행동이 유의하게 증가되는 효과를 확인하였다. 연구 2에서는 온라인 설문조사를 통 해 이러한 효과를 재검증하였으며, 개인적 주인의식이 주관적 사회경제적 지위와 친환경 행동 간의 관계를 매개 한다는 점을 확인하였다. 이를 통해, 본 연구는 기존 연구에서 주목된 바 없는 새로운 메커니즘을 통하여 사회경 제적 지위와 친환경 행동의 관계를 설명함으로써 시민들의 친환경 행동을 촉진할 수 있는 새로운 심리적 동기를 밝혔다는 데 이론적 공헌도가 있다. 또한, 실무적으로는 주관적 사회경제적 지위가 높은 개인에게는 자기중심적 동기에 기반한 맞춤형 전략이 필요함을 보여줌으로써 기후 위기 대응을 위한 정책과 캠페인 설계에 중요한 시사 점을 제공한다. Due to climate change, modern individuals are increasingly exposed to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and more frequent hurricanes, while residents of low-lying cities face life- threatening risks from rising sea levels caused by global warming. In this context, collective efforts from governments, corporations, and citizens worldwide are urgently needed to slow the pace of climate change. To effectively promote citizens’ pro-environmental behaviors and enhance ecosystem sustainability, it is essential to understand which consumer characteristics foster such behaviors and through what psychological motivations they act. Prior research has examined various antecedents and psychological mechanisms of pro-environmental behavior. Building on this literature, the present research focuses on subjective socioeconomic status (SES) as a key antecedent and proposes psychological ownership of the environment as the central mechanism that explains this relationship. Specifically, we hypothesize that individuals with higher subjective SES will engage more in pro-environmental behaviors and that this relationship will be explained by the extent to which they experience the environment as “mine.” Two studies were conducted to test these predictions. Study 1, using Seoul Survey panel data, confirmed that higher subjective SES is significantly associated with increased pro-environmental behavior. Study 2, an online survey experiment, replicated this effect and demonstrated that psychological ownership of the environment mediates the relationship between subjective SES and pro-environmental behavior. Together, these findings make a theoretical contribution by identifying a previously unexplored psychological mechanism that links socioeconomic status to pro-environmental behavior, thereby revealing a new motivational pathway for encouraging citizens’ environmental engagement. From a practical standpoint, the results suggest that individuals with higher subjective SES may respond more effectively to self-focused, ownership-based appeals, offering meaningful implications for designing policies and campaigns aimed at addressing the climate crisis.

학교 규모 변화와 교육격차의 구조적 메커니즘에 관한 탐색적 분석

문지영(Jiyoung Moon) 한국교육재정경제학회 2025 교육재정경제연구 Vol.34 No.4

본 연구는 학교 규모의 절대적 크기보다는 학교 규모 변화율이 학생 성취에 미치는 동태적 효과에 주목하였다. 특히, 사회경제적 배경(SES)과 지역 맥락(특별시 및 대도시, 중소도시, 읍·면)에 따라 그 효과가 차별적으로 나타나는지를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 한국교육종단연구(KELS 2013) 3~5차년도 패널데이터를 활용하여 국·공립 중학교 재학생 3,847명을 대상으로 이원고정효과모형을 추정하였다. 분석 결과, 학교 규모 감소율은 전체적으로 직접적 효과를 보이지 않았으나, SES와의 상호작용에서는 지역별로 뚜렷한 차이가 확인되었다. 특별시 및 대도시의 SES 하위 집단 학생은 규모 감소율이 성취에 유의한 부정적 영향을 미쳤으며, 이는 도시 공동화 현상 속에서 SES 하위 집단 학생의 집중과 자원 약화가 성취 격차를 심화시키는 구조를 반영한다. 반면, 읍·면 지역의 SES 상위 집단 학생은 규모 감소율이 긍정적 영향을 보여, 소규모화된 학급 환경에서 개별화된 학습 지원이 가정 자원과 결합하여 성취 향상으로 전환될 수 있음을 시사한다. 이러한 결과는 학령인구 감소가 단순한 학생 수 축소가 아니라, SES와 지역 맥락에 따라 교육격차를 재편하는 구조적 과정임을 보여준다. 본 연구는 학교 규모 연구의 초점을 절대적 크기에서 변화율로 확장함으로써, 학령인구 감소 시대의 교육격차 이해에 새로운 해석 틀을 제공한다. This study examines the dynamic effects of school size change—rather than absolute school size—on student achievement, with particular attention to heterogeneity by socioeconomic status (SES) and regional context (metropolitan and special cities, mid-sized cities, and town/rural areas). Using panel data from Waves 3–5 of the Korean Educational Longitudinal Study (KELS 2013), the analysis draws on a sample of 3,847 students enrolled in public middle schools and estimates two-way fixed effects models. The results indicate that school size decline shows no significant average effect on achievement; however, pronounced regional heterogeneity emerges in interaction with SES. In metropolitan and special cities, school size decline is associated with significantly lower achievement among students from low-SES backgrounds, suggesting that enrollment contraction in urban contexts may intensify socioeconomic concentration and resource weakening, thereby widening achievement gaps. By contrast, in town and rural areas, school size decline is positively associated with achievement among high-SES students, indicating that smaller school and class environments may enhance learning when combined with strong family resources and individualized instructional support. Taken together, these findings suggest that declining enrollment is not merely a demographic trend but a context-dependent process that may reconfigure educational inequality across socioeconomic and regional settings. By shifting the analytical focus from school size levels to rates of change, this exploratory study offers a new interpretive framework for understanding educational inequality in an era of demographic decline.

사회경제적지위와 코로나19 관련 일상생활변화, 염려 및 개인방역수칙

김우종,이은영,차예인,허현,홍선주 한국생활환경학회 2022 한국생활환경학회지 Vol.29 No.2

The purpose of study is to assess the association between socioeconomic status and daily life changes, concerns, and precautionary behaviors related to COVID-19 using data drawn from the 2020 Community Health Survey. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed. The finding indicates that low socioeconomic status was associated with high daily life changes due to COVID-19. However, high socioeconomic status was associated with high concerns about COVID-19. Low socioeconomic status was associated with high level of practice of hand-washing to prevent infection, but there was no consistent results in the compliance of COVID-19 precautionary behavior. The results suggested that individuals need to be provided with information and prevention measures related to COVID- 19, as well as a physical and social environment in which individuals can implement COVID-19 precautionary behavior.

리비아 대수로공사 사례로 본 사회경제적 변화에 관한 연구

Hong Chang Ki,Park Jong Young 경기대학교 재난안전연구소 2020 재난안전논문집 Vol.2020 No.1

연구목적 : 본 연구는 물 기근을 겪는 리비아에 대수로공사에 의한 담수수급(Water Demand & Supply)과 인구증가 및 도시화, 농지확장과 농산물 생산증대, 산업발전 및 경제성장 추이에 의한 사회경제적 변화(Socioeconomic Change)에 관한 연구를 목적으로 한다. 연구방법 : 리비아 대수로공사에 의한 담수공급(Water Supply) 전후(前後)의 리비아와 관련 국가들에 대한 문헌고찰과, 사례연구를 통하여 리비아의 사회경제적 변화 즉 인구증가와 도시화, 농지확장과 농산물 생산증대, 산업발전 및 경제성장 등을 연구문제로 설정하여 비교분석하였다. 연구결과 : 결과분석은 1984년 리비아 대수로공사를 시작하여 1989년부터 물 공급을 시작한 전후(前後) 기간의 리비아 물 공급은 생활용수 3.8억톤(1985)에서 8.3억톤(2005)으로, 농업용수 6.5억톤(1980)에서 46.9억톤(2000)으로, 산업용수 500만톤(1980)에서 1.8억톤(2005)으로 증가, 농지면적 382천 ha(1980)에서 470천 ha로 증가, GDP는 105억 디나(1980)에서 545억 디나(2005)로 증가하였다. 결론 : 대수로공사에 의한 담수공급(설계수량 일일 600만톤)이 인구증가 및 도시화와의 관계, 가장 많이 소비되는 지중해 연안의 농지에 농업용수의 공급 등으로 농경지 확장과 농산물 생산증대, 산업용수 공급에 의한 산업 활성화, 상수도에 의한 먹는 물 공급으로 인한 리비아인 들의 생활환경 및 수준 향상 등으로 대수공사가 리비아 경제성장에 이바지하여 긍정적인 사회경제적 변화가 일어났으며, 대수로공사 모델을 다른 유사물 부족국가에 적용할 수 있을 것이다. Purpose: This study was conducted to examine water demand & supply by the Great Man-made Project in Libya, which suffered from water famine. This study focus on how Great Man-made Project effected socially. For example, increase population growth which led to urbanization, increase production of agricultural products, industrial development and economic growth. Method: Through a study of Libya before and after the Water Supply by the Great Man-made Project, and a case study, the socioeconomic changes in Libya, such as population growth and urbanization, farmland expansion and agricultural production increase, industrial development and economic growth, were set up and analyzed as research questions. Results: The results of the analysis were through water supply from the Great Man-made Project, The results of the analysis were through water supply from the Great Man-made Project, increasing water supply from 380 million tons(1985) to 830 million tons(2005) and 650 million tons of agricultural water(1980) to 4.7 billion tons(2000), industrial water from 5 million tons(1980) to 180 million tons (2005) and increasing agricultural land area from 382 thousand ha(1980) to 470 thousand ha, GDP 10.5 billion Libyan dinars(1980) to 54.5 billion Libyan dinars(2005). Conclusion: This socioeconomic change was made by the Great Man-made Project in Libya which provided freshwater supply(design quantity about 6 million tons per day) which led to population growth and urbanization, agricultural water supply to the most consumed farmland in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, fresh water contributed to revitalize the industry by industrial water supply, and improve living conditions, and drinking water supply and this project model could be applied to other similar water shortage countries.

근로자의 사회경제적 지위 변화와 흡연량과의 관계: 성별 조절효과를 중심으로

이옥진 ( Rhee Ok-jin ),태미화 ( Tae Mi Wha ),서지은 ( Seo Ji Eun ),김주일 ( Kim Ju-ill ) 한국보건사회연구원 2013 보건사회연구 Vol.33 No.3

The aim of this study is to examine the associations between the changes of socioeconomic status(occupation, income, education level) and smoking in employees, with moderating effects of gender on these associations. Subjects of this study are 2,719 Employees from the Korea Welfare Panel Study 2008 and 2012 administered by Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and Seoul National University. The results of hierarchical regression analyses include; First, the change into blue-color employees is positively associated with smoking. Second, the effect of the changes into blue-color employees is modified by gender. These results show that the changes of occupation are noteworthy factors. And the statistically significancy of gender moderating effect suggested that female employees have a great potential in much more smoking than men because of the changes of occupation. We expect that these findings are useful to establish more adjustable antismoking policies to gender and the changes of occupation.