중국의 비공식적 경제 제재

조형진,Cho, Hyungjin 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2021 Analyses & alternatives Vol.5 No.1

As the strategic competition between the United States and China for global hegemony intensifies, China is using economic sanctions against other countries more and more frequently. Republic of Korea, which has China as its largest trading partner but is an ally of the United States, is more likely to be a target of economic sanctions, as seen in China's retaliation toward its deployment of a THAAD missile-defense system. Against the background, this paper analyzes China's economic sanctions, especially focusing on its informality. China does not publicly declare economic sanctions in most cases, such as Korean one, in which the trade structure is in its favor and can take advantage of its position as a big buyer with huge markets. However, China responds in a more open and formal manner when it is related to its core interests, when it is impossible to exert substantial sanctions effect and when mutual disputes intensify and cannot maintain informality. Korea, which is vulnerable to China's informal economic sanctions, should prepare for them by analyzing the characteristics of China's economic sanctions in depth and thinking about various strategies and measures in advance. 미국과 중국의 전략적 경쟁이 격화되면서 중국을 비롯하여 전세계적으로 경제 제재가 더욱 빈번하게 사용되고 있다. 미국의 동맹국이면서도 중국을 최대 교역국으로 두고 있는 한국은 중국의 사드(THAAD) 배치에 대한 보복에서 보듯이 향후에도 경제 제재에 맞닥뜨릴 가능성이 높다. 이러한 배경에서 본 논문은 비공식성을 중심으로 중국의 경제 제재를 분석한다. 중국은 경제 제재를 거의 인정하지 않는다. 대부분의 경우, 중국은 한국의 사드 배치 사례처럼 거대한 시장을 가진 구매자로서의 지위를 적극 활용하여 비공식적으로 경제 제재를 시행한다. 핵심이익과 관련되어 있거나 유리한 무역구조를 활용할 수 없어 실질적인 제재 효과를 발휘할 수 없는 경우, 그리고 상호 분쟁이 고조되어 비공식성을 유지할 수 없을 때에만, 공식적인 대응을 한다. 중국의 비공식적 경제 제재에 취약한 한국은 무역구조를 개선하는 것과 함께 비공식성을 비롯한 중국의 경제 제재가 갖는 특성을 심도 있게 분석하면서 다양한 전략과 방안을 통해 이에 대비해야 할 것이다.

금융제재가 달러패권질서에 미치는 영향

한영빈 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.2

The purpose of this study is to verify the practical validity of financial sanctions, which has recently emerged as the most powerful form of economic sanctions preferred by U.S. foreign policy tool. Based on the theoretical discussion, analyse this study the trend of de-dollarization appearing in connection with financial sanctions and argue that the effectiveness of financial sanctions erode the dollar financial hegemony, which is the source of its power can be degraded, so that its effectiveness could not be so great as most people likely think about. After World War II, there has been an increasing tendency in the international community to favor economic sanctions over the use of military force as an effective means of foreign policy. Among these economic sanctions, a distinct feature that has recently appeared is the remarkable increase in the frequency of use of financial sanctions. The country that favors financial sanctions most is the United States. The reason is that they believe that the power of their own dollar financial hegemony can exert deadly pressure on other countries. Financial sanctions favored by the United States are said to have increased the effectiveness of sanctions by upgrading the pressure of sanctions to the next level. Nevertheless, financial sanctions have a side that underestimates the cost. This problem is found in the signs that the backlash from not only countries subject to financial sanctions but also many countries with interests in these countries is leading to a tendency to de-dollarization. This study will try to see how likely this de-dollarization trend is to offset the effectiveness of financial sanctions.

5·18민주화운동이 지역경제에 미친 경제적 영향 분석: 통제집단합성법(SCM)을 이용한 접근

류덕현,서동규 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.2

본 연구는 통제집단 합성법(Synthetic Control Method, SCM)을 사용해 518민주화운동이 광주/전남지역에 미친 부정적 충격을 계량경제학적으로 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 통제집단 합성법은 미시계량경제학의 이중차분법과 유사한 방법론으로 국가, 지역 등의 거시집계변수들에 적용하여 특정 사건의 인과관계 규명을 위해 처치집단과 통제집단의 사건 이후의 성과차이를 계량하는 데이터 중심 추계 방법론이다. 본 연구에서는 1980년 기준 광역 지방자치 단체의 지방세수 자료를 지역의 경제력에 대한 대리변수로 하고 여러 사회 경제적 지표를 통해 518민주화운동이 광주/전남 지역의 경제에 미친 영향을 분석했다. 본 연구에서는 1971년부터 2000년까지 자료를 사용하여 분석하였는데 실증 분석 결과 1980년을 기준으로 최대 17%까지 광주/전남 지역의 지방세수가 정상 경로와 비교하면 덜 걷혔다고 분석할 수 있었다. 또한 통제집단 합성법의 강건성 분석 방법인 시점이동 위약효과 분석과 공간이동 위약효과 분석을 통해서도 이러한 분석의 유의함을 확인할 수 있었다.

정서적 양극화, 정책인가 아니면 정당인가: 2020 미대선 사례

강명세 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.2

This study aims to account for electoral choice in the 2020 presidential election by focusing on social identity which forms the basis for core partisan groups. Two views compete to explain the origins of polarization, policy versus party. One emphasizes policy as more influential in choosing presidential candidates. This follows the tradition of retrospective voting theory in which voters’ choice rely on government performance. Incumbent president whose performance proves well are rewarded to be reelected. Policy performance is based on measures around distinctive preferences for government spending. Republican Individuals prefer individual responsibility to government support, while Democratic counterparts support government support. Another perspective put an emphasis on the role partisanship which favors in-party members and disfavors partisan out-groups. Interparty animosity plays the key role in determining electoral behavior. This study relies on the Views of the Electorate Research (VOTER) Survey which provides a panel data of several waves from 2011 to 2020. A comparative evaluation of two views highlights three findings. First, policy matters. Policy preferences of voters are the primary drives of political behavior. Electoral outcomes in 2020 turned out to be the results of policy considerations of voters. 53.7 percent of voters tilted toward individual responsibility voted for Trump, whereas 70.4 percent of those favorable views of government support than individual responsibility voted for Biden. Thus effects of policy correspond to a positive difference of 26.4 percent points. Second, partisanship effects are of similar extent in influencing electoral choice of candidates: Democrats are less likely to vote for Trump by 42.4 percent points, while Republicans are less likely to vote for Biden by 48.7 percent points. Third, animosity of Republicans toward Democrat core groups creates 26.5 percent points of favoring Trump over Biden. Democrat animosity toward Republican core groups creates a positive difference of 13.7 percent points of favoring Biden.

프랑스 언론의 신뢰도 위기: 저널리즘 제도의 내적 균열과 사회운동의 영향

박진우,김설아 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.2

This study examines the crisis of trust of French journalism in the context of a global decline of media credibility. First of all, in the process of a huge social movement called the ‘yellow vest’ movement that started in 2018, distrust of the French journalism was expressed in an extreme form. This study examines some external factors in terms of the historical development of the French journalism and the public's long-standing ‘criticism of journalism’. Specifically, this study first examines the quantitative indicators of trust of French journalism which were shown in Digital News Report published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism. Next, it examines the historical and institutional formation process of French journalism and public distrust that emerged along with it. And specifically, the structural crisis-economic crisis, digital transformation and intensification of competition, and deterioration of quality problems etc.-of the French journalism exposed in media coverage on social movement in 2018 is review in relation with the working process or ‘routine’ of actual news production. In conclusion, this study asserts that the various aspects of internal rifts in French journalism system, as well as external shocks (the influence of social movements), are a key factor in explaining the recent decline of trust in French journalism.

탈중국을 위한 대만 남향정책의 지속과 변화: 균형과 편승의 동학

김선재,김수한,Kim, Sunjae,Kim, Suhan 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.1

This paper analyzes Taiwan's 「New Southbound Policy」 from the perspective of 'balancing' and 'bandwagoning' in international politics. Specifically, it examines the changes and characteristics of 'Southbound policies' that have continued since the period of the Lee Teng-hui(李登輝) administration, and examines the meaning of the New Southbound Policy promoted by the Tsai Ing-wen(蔡英文) administration. Taiwan's foreign policy has been strongly influenced by external variables such as U.S.-China relations. Previous Taiwanese governments have actively promoted Southbound policies to advance to Southeast Asian countries such as ASEAN with the aim of 'De-Sinicization', but have not achieved much results. This is because variables such as cooperative U.S.-China relations and strong checks from China played a role at the time. In this environment, Taiwan had to pursue an appropriate 'balancing' between the United States, China, and Southeast Asian countries. However, since the inauguration of the Trump administration, strategic competition between the U.S. and China has been maximized, creating a new space for Taiwan's foreign policy. This is because the U.S. valued cooperation with Taiwan in the process of embodying the 'Indo-Pacific Strategy' to curb China's rise. The New Southbound Policy promoted by the Tsai Ing-won administration is different from the existing Southbound policies in that it seeks to link with the U.S. India-Pacific Strategy and attempts to advance to South Asian countries such as India. From an international political point of view, the Tsai Ing-won administration's New Southbound Policy can be interpreted as a 'bandwagoning' to the United States, not a balanced strategy between the U.S. and China. Strategic competition between the U.S. and China is expected to intensify for a considerable period of time in the future, and honeymoon between Taiwan and the U.S. are also expected to continue. Taiwan's bandwagoning strategy, which actively pursues a link between the New Southbound Policy and the India-Pacific Strategy, is also expected to be maintained.

미·중 패권경쟁 사이에서 싱가포르의 외교적 선택과 시사점

이장원,박기형 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

싱가포르는 미·중과 동시에 밀접한 안보·경제 관계를 맺고 있지만 또한 자주적이고 원칙적으로 대응한다. 이는 한국에도 시사점을 준다. 독립 이래 싱가포르의 지정학적 취약성은 외교정책의 주요 동인이 되었다. 싱가포르 외교의 일관된 목표는 첫째, 생존권과 발전권 확보; 둘째, 신뢰성 있고 억지력을 갖춘 국방력을 유지하고 자유롭고 개방적인 국제무역체제를 통한 경제발전과 지속가능한 번영을 확보; 셋째, 아세안에 적극 참여하여 역내 국가와의 선린우호관계를 유지하고, 지역통합 강화를 통해 싱가포르의 대외 발언권을 확보; 넷째, 동남아시아 및 아태지역의 평화적 안보환경 조성이다. 이에따라 싱가포르는 정치 안정을 통한 경제적 번영 확보, 주권 보장을 위한 자주적 균형외교, 모든 국가들과 선린우호 관계를 형성하고 적을 만들지 않는 다자주의 추구, 국제법과 규범 존중의 원칙을 바탕으로 균형 있는 비동맹의 유연한 실용외교를 전개하고있다. 싱가포르는 역내의 다른 국가들과 마찬가지로 미·중 양국과 경제·안보적으로 밀접한 관계를 맺고 있기에 미·중 패권경쟁의 영향을 받고 있다. 싱가포르는 미국의 역내 재균형 전략을 공개적으로 지지하면서도 중국에 대한 견제와는 조심스럽게 구분하고 있으며, 경제 분야 뿐만 아니라 군사안보 측면에서도 중국과 실질적인 협력을 전개하고 있다. 이중적으로 보일지 모르지만 싱가포르는 미·중 사이에서 자국의 생존과 국익을 확보할 수 있는 동태적 균형을 유지하기 위해 노력하고 있다.

The Pursuit of the EU’s Strategic Autonomy: Motivated, but still Ambiguous

윤성욱 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

The purpose of this research is to analyse what motivates the EU for its strategic autonomy, but to explore what makes the EU still uncertain over European strategic autonomy. Even though there are still controversies over the issues regarding strategic autonomy, the EU is likely to intend to pursue its autonomous policies in various fields. The problem is, however, that it is not clear yet what the EU’s position is in terms of strategic autonomy. This results in various speculations on the possibility and necessity of the EU’s policies based on the notion of strategic autonomy, and even implications on transatlantic relations. This paper introduced various issues which motivated the EU to strengthen strategic autonomy such as rivalry competition between the US and China, the US withdrawal of the JCPOA and the Paris Climate agreement, the EU-China CAI and the AUKUS pact. The advent of the Trump administration which caused transatlantic tensions served as a momentum to add fuel to blazing up debates over strategic autonomy within the EU. In spite of these motivations, this research argues that the reasons for the EU’s ambiguous position on strategic autonomy are internal and external worries: internally, there are worries of power concentration to particular member states, notably France and Germany; and externally, the pursuit of European strategic autonomy is generally perceived to deteriorate a traditional transatlantic relationship.

지역 노동시장에서 대기업 고용 변화의 임금 효과

백명호 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

이 연구는 지역 노동시장에서 대기업 고용비율의 소득 및 임금 효과를 분석한다. 300 인 이상 규모 사업체에 종사하는 비율은 시도별로 상당한 차이를 보이며 연도별 변화추세도 상이하게 나타난다. 광역시도 패널 자료를 활용한 시도 고정효과 모형의 분석결과 대기업 고용비율과 고용규모는 1인당 지역내총생산 또는 지역총소득에 긍정적인관계를 보이는 반면 개인소득에는 아무런 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 나타난다. 또한, 대기업 고용비율과 중소기업의 평균 임금은 오히려 부정적인 관계가 있는 것으로드러난다. 이와 유사한 결과는 개인 수준의 노동패널 자료의 분석에서도 확인되는데개인 및 일자리의 특성을 통제한 개인 고정효과 모형을 추정한 결과 지역 노동시장의대기업 고용비율은 전반적으로 임금과 음의 관계에 있는 것으로 분석된다. 이러한 연구 결과는 대기업 유치 등을 통한 지역 경제의 성장이 직접적으로 개인소득 및 임금향상으로 이어지지 않을 수 있음을 시사한다. 따라서, 지역 주민의 생활수준 향상을 위한 정책을 마련하는 경우 기업 투자 유치 외에도 중소기업 종사자 및 자영업자들에 대한 영향을 고려할 필요가 있음을 보여준다.

“민주평화론”의 정치적 위상과 진화가능성

최형익 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2022 분석과 대안 Vol.6 No.3

On the academy of international politics, the theory linking democracy and foreign policy is called “the Democratic Peace.” To summarize the main argument of that theory, it claims that the countries adopting a democratic political system do not go to war each other and maintain peace. In other words, if a war breaks out, it has the implication that it will only be possible between democratic countries and anti-democratic or non-democratic countries. The United States is a representative country that has led the post-war international order based on the “the Democratic Peace.” In the process of reorganizing the international order after World War II, the United States faced the need to blockade the communist camp centered on the Soviet Union and unite the Western camp. In addition, a new foreign policy that could intervene in global affairs was required by abandoning the isolationist ideology that had long supported US foreign policy. This was called the Internationalist diplomatic line as a new foreign policy. One of the core ideologies that underpin the internationalist foreign policy of the United States is the “the Democratic Peace.” The Republic of Korea is in a desperate position to prepare a new political foundation, at the same time, implementing a strategy for international relations and diplomacy based on democracy. Two options are possible here. Will we reject the “the Democratic Peace” as a Cold War ideology, or will we preserve its core values and modify and supplement it in a more innovative form to suit with our national interests and changing international circumstances? This article seeks to explore the evolutionary potential of “the Democratic Peace” through the discussion of John Rawls’ Law of Peoples while critically exploring the political implications of “the Democratic Peace” from the latter point of view by comparing it with Kant’s ‘Perpetual Peace.’