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      • A Study on the Regional Innovation in an Industrial Cluster : Focusing on a Traditional Textile Industry of Nishijin Area

        Tai,Hun,Lee,Soon,Goo,Hong 보안공학연구지원센터 2016 International Journal of u- and e- Service, Scienc Vol.9 No.4

        Fabric from Nishijin occupies a significant position in traditional Japanese culture and it holds a large industrial share in Kyoto City. This paper examines the regional “hollowing out” that has caused a decline in the industries surrounding Nishijin, as well as social changes, including building deterioration and regional economic stagnation and to suggest policies for regional innovation. The direction of political responses to this situation is also considered. To understand the uniqueness of Nishijin fabric and the potential that has accumulated over the process of industrial development, the structural change of Nishijin industry was investigated using statistical data from the “Nishijin Industry Survey Summary (2005, 2011).” The change in the cluster degree was also examined using Kyoto City Industry Statistics and the specialization coefficient. The implications of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the hollowing out of the manufacturing industry and regional stagnation in Nishijin can be attributed to diminished trust within the community following outsourcing and cost transfers to small Hataori. It is recommended that a new collaborative relationship be established where diverse interested parties participate from the beginning of production based on the concept of co-creation. Second, while textile manufacturing-related industries in Kyoto City are declining overall, Nishijin has experienced a relatively mild decrease, resulting in a cluster with a relatively higher degree of textile manufacturing. As long as Japanese society exists, there will be a demand for a traditional clothing. Therefore, industries should recover to bring new investment and regional innovation through reshoring. Third, a specialization coefficient analysis indicated that there exist irreplaceable products, such as materials manually woven by master craftspeople and finest quality fabricated thread.

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        The Determinants of Infant and Child Mortality in Korea: 1955-1973

        Tai-Hun,Kim 한국인구학회 1986 한국인구학 Vol.9 No.2

        In both urban and rural areas, mother's education is the most important determinant of infant mortality, maternal age and number of rooms used are the main determinants of child mortality. Previous birth interval and survival of the previous birth also significantly affect infant mortality and previous birth interval child mortality in both urban and rural areas. For both infant and child mortality previous birth interval and number of rooms used are the most general factors in urban areas; previous birth interval and mother's education in rural areas. Infant mortality is also significantly affected by sex of the child and the number of rooms used in urban areas, and by birth order in rural areas. Significant determinants of child mortality are birth order in urban areas but mother's education in rural areas. Thus, in summary, demographic factors are relatively more important for infant mortality in the rural areas and for child mortality in the urban areas; in contrast, socioeconomic factors play a role for infant mortality in urban areas and for child mortality in rural areas.


        KIM,,TAI-HUN Institute for Social Development and Policy Resear 1997 Korea Journal of Population and Development Vol.26 No.1

        The relationships between fertility level and sex ratio was analysed with the estimation of the number of sex-selective abortions and the number of births controlled by abortion. The number of live births which experienced sex screening was estimated as 71,949. Among the 71,949 boys who experienced the sex screening, the normal live births found as male fetuses at the tests of the sex screening are estimated as 37,022. The rest (34,927) are the boys who were born after repeated induced abortion when the fetus was known to be a girl at the first sex screening. The proportion of the boys experienced sex screening to the total male births was 6.8%. The total number of births controlled by sex selective induced abortions for male births is estimated as 43,550 births, which reduced the total number of births by 2.15%. The contribution rates of fertility reduction resulted by sex selective induced abortions among the births of mothers aged 35 years and over or among the third or later births are significantly high: 7.21% and 14.97% each. We presented empirical evidence for the levels and their changes of the sex ratio in Korea, and the relationship between fertility level and sex ratio was analysed with the estimation of the number of sex-selective abortions and the number of births controlled by abortion. In Korea, the ideal number of children has dropped to under 2.0, and the total fertility rate (TFR) has reached 1.6, under the replacement level of 2.1, and continued at the same level. When any effective sex-selective abortion is available, couples will try to have a boy. This is the reason why the sex ratios of third and later births are so high. Furthermore, when a small family size is strongly desired, a couple will try to have a boy within their ideal number of children. For this reason, the recent sex ratio of the second children is also increasing sharply. In a society where the value of small family size is strong, a women will try to have a boy before the number of her children ever born is over her ideal number of children, and she will not wait to have a boy while she continue to bear. This pushes up the sex ratio at birth and pulls down the average fertility level. If we assume that there is no sex discrimination against girls and that the sex ratio at birth is 106, the total number of boys not determined through sex screening in Korea was estimated at 681,903 (table 5). Thus, the number of live births determined through sex screening was estimated at 71,949. Among the 71,949 boys identified through sex screening, the normal live births found as male fetuses at the screenings are estimated at 37,022. The rest (34,927) are boys born after repeated use of induced abortion when the fetus was identified as a girl at the first sex screening. The proportion of the boys identified through sex screening to the total male births was 6.8%, which means 68 among 1,000 boys. Therefore, we can confirm that sex screening is widly practiced in Korea, and is the main reason for the unbalanced sex ratio at birth. The male selective births by sex screening and induced abortion are generally practiced among women aged 30 years and over and for the third or later male births. The main reasons for this are that the boy preference in Korea is still strong although society has been changing for the last 40 years, and that the sex screening has been widely used since the technique was introduced. Therefore, continuous pregnancy for one or more male births in the past has been changed into the repeated pregnancy for a boy selected by sex screening and induced abortion in the present. These have been causing sex imbalance in the population and reduction of the number of births in Korea. When we assume that a woman, who has experienced induced abortion for a boy, aborts repeatedly until she bears a male fetus, the total number of births controlled by sex selective induced abortions for male births is estimated at 43,550, which reduced the total number of births by 2.15. Among the births of mothers aged 24 years or less or among the first births, the effects on fertility reduction of induced abortions decided after sex screening are not clear. However, the contribution rates of fertility reduction caused by sex selective induced abortions among the births of mothers aged 35 years and over or among the third or later births are significantly high: 7.21% and 14.97% each. The contribution rates of fertility reduction resulting in total induced abortions are as high as 10 times those by sex selective induced abortions. That is, the proportion of the effects on the fertility reduction of sex selective induced abortions is about 10% of those of total induced abortions. Ten percent of the fertility reduction resulted by total induced abortion are the effects of sex selective induced abortions.

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        시도별 장래 인구추계(1995~2020)

        김태헌(Tai-Hun Kim), 정환영(Hwan-Yeong Jeong) 한국인구학회 1999 한국인구학 Vol.22 No.1

        1995년 시ㆍ도별 인구를 기준으로 2020년까지 5년 간격으로 16개 시ㆍ도의 성ㆍ연령별 인구를 코호트조성법을 이용하여 추계하였다. 전국인구가 1995년에 4.593만명에서 5.236만명(2020년)으로 643만명이 증가하는 동안 주변지역으로 인구의 전출이 많은 서울과 부산의 인구가 감소할 것이며, 도시로의 인구 전출이 많은 강원과 전남ㆍ북의 인구도 감소할 것으로 전망하고 있다. 그러나 전국 인구증가율보다 더 빠른 증가로 전국인구에 대한 인구 구성비가 높아지는 시도는 인천, 광주, 대전, 울산을 포함하는 신흥대도시와 경기도에 불과하며, 충북과 제주의 인구구성비는 같은 수준을 유지할 것이다. 서울인구는 1.034만명(1995년)에서 2000년에 1998만명으로, 2020년에 941만명으로 감소하여 전국인구에 대한 구성비가 22.9%(1995)에서 18.0%(2020)로 감소할 것이다. 그러나 경기도의 인구는 같은 기간에 774만명(1995)에서 1.319만명(2020)으로 증가한다. 서울, 인천, 경기를 포함하는 수도권인구는 인천과 경기인구의 증가로 1995년에 2,041만명(45.3%)에서 2020년에 약 530만명이 늘어난 2.571만명으로 전국인구의 49.1%를 포함하게 된다. 그 외 대도시권의 인구는 모두 증가하였으나 주변도의 인구가 감소하거나, 증가하여도 전국평균 수준보다 낮아서 전국인구 대비 인구구성비가 대전권을 제외하고 모두 낮아졌다. We projected the population by age and sex, by 7 Special Cities and 9 Provinces for 25 years (1995~2020) based on 1995 population by region using cohort component method. For this projection, we projected ASFRs, survival ratios, sex ratios at birth, and net internal migration rates by age and sex, and by region. While Korean total population is increasing by 6,430 thousand persons from 45,930 thousand in 1995 to 52,360 thousand in 2020, the populations of two most populated Special Cities (Seoul and Pusan) and three lowest urbanized Provinces (Kangwon, Jeonnam and Jeonbuk) are expected to decrease. Only the populations of four newly developed Special Cities (Incheon, Kwangju, Taejeon and Ulsan) and Kyungki Province boarded with Seoul and Incheon will experience population increase faster than the total population. Seoul population will decrease from 10.340 thousand persons in 1995 to 9,410 thousand in 2020, which proportion to the total population will decline from 22.9% to 18.0% in same period. Since Kyunggi population, however, will increase from 7.740 thousand persons in 1995 to 13,190 thousand in 2020, the population of Capital Metropolitan Area including Seoul, Incheon and Kyunggi will increase by about 5,300 thousand persons from 20,410 thousand in 1995 to 25,710 thousand in 2020, which approaches to half of the total population in 2020.

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        국민연금가입자의 차별사망력

        김태헌(Tai-Hun Kim), 박경애(Kyung-Ae Park), 김순옥(Soonoak Kim) 한국인구학회 1998 한국인구학 Vol.21 No.1

        국민연금가입자의 차별 사망력을 고찰하기 위하며 국민연금가입자의 성 및 가입종별(사업장가입자 및 지역가입자) 생명표를 작성하였다. 사업장가입자에 대해서는 1994~1996년 3년 평균자료를, 지역가입자에 대해서는 1996년 단년 자료를 활용하였다. 국민연금생명표의 최저연령인 18세에서 기대여명은 사업장가입자의 경우 남녀 각각 59.5년과 67.2년으로 여자가 남자보다 7.7년이 길었다. 남녀간의 사망률 차이는 연령이 증가함에 따라 줄어드는 데, 연령증가에 따른 감소폭이 노년층에서보다 젊은층에서 큰 것으로 나타났다. 지역가입자의 경우 18세에서의 기대여명은 남녀 각각 51.4세와 61.1세로 그 차이는 사업장가입자의 경우(7.7년)보다 큰 9.7년이었다. 지역가입자에서의 성별 사망률 차이가 사업장가입자에서보다 크게 나타난 것은 남녀의 지역간 차별 이동에 의한 결과이다. 사업장가입자와 지역가입자의 연령별 기대여명을 비교하여 보면 남자의 경우 18세에서 각각 59.5년과 51.4년으로 8.1년의 차이가 있었으며, 여자의 경우 각각 67.2년과 61.1년으로 6.1년의 차이가 나타났다. 남자 평균여명의 차이가 여자보다 더 큰 것은 도농간 교육정도 차이가 여자보다 남자에게서 더욱 뚜렷한데 그 원인을 찾을 수 있다. In order to examine differential mortality, the life tables for the insured persons in national pension scheme were estimated by sex and types of coverage(the insured in workplaces vs, the insured in rural areas). The averages of 1994-1996 data are used for insured in workplaces, but 1996 data are used for insured in rural areas. Life expectancies at the age of 18 are 59.5 years and 67.2 years each for insured males and females and thus 7.7 years longer for females than males in workplaces. Sex difference in mortality reduces as age increases, and more rapidly at younger ages than old ages. For insured in rural areas, life expectancies at the age of 18 are 51. 4 years and 61. 1 years each for insured males and females and thus sex difference is 9. 7 years. The greater sex difference in mortality in rural areas can be explained by sex selective migration. The difference of life expectancy between insured in workplaces and insured in rural areas is 8. 1 years for males, and 6. 1 years for females. Because rural-urban difference in educational attainment is greater for males than females, the greater difference in life expectancy is observed for males than females.

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        농촌인구의 특성과 그 변화, 1960~1995

        김태헌(Tai-Hun Kim) 한국인구학회 1996 한국인구학 Vol.19 No.2

        농촌사회의 당면한 문제는 농촌인구의 극소와 잔존인구의 성ㆍ연령별 인구구조의 왜곡에서부터 제기되므로 농촌인구의 변화추세를 검토하였다. 그리고 최근 군부로의 전입과 전출인구를 비교하여 최근 농촌으로의 인구회귀현상의 실태를 분석하였다. 끝으로 농촌의 인구실태를 파악하기 위하여 실시한 농촌마을 조사자료를 분석하여 농촌으로 전입하는 인구의 영향을 밝혔고, 특성별 농촌마을의 장래를 예측하였다. 군부의 인구는 도시로의 인구전출이 지속되면서 젊은 연령층과 영유아의 인구구성비가 낮고 노인연령층이 두텁게 되었다. 산업화 이전단계인 1960년 군부의 0~4세 인구구성비는 시부보다 높았으나 농촌인구의 도시전출이 누적되면서 1975년부터 시부보다 낮아졌다. 그러나 1995년의 군부 0~4세 인구구성비가 6.2%로 5년 전보다 상승하여 시부와 차가 감소되었다. 또한 1980년대 후반에 시부에서 군부로 이동하는 인구의 연령별 구성에서 20~34세에 총이동인구의 51.8%가 집중되어 있었으며, 이들의 교육수준은 시부로의 전입 인구보다 오히려 높았다. 이러한 사실은 농촌사회의 변화로 나타나게 될 것이다. 그러나 순수농촌마을이라고 할 수 있는 보은군의 농촌마을과 원래 농업중심 마을이었으나 최근에 급속히 변하고 있는 파주군의 근교농촌마을의 인구구조를 비교한 결과 최근의 농촌인구구조의 변화와 젊은 연령층의 군부로 전입하는 현상은 일부 농촌, 특히 근교농촌의 변화에 의한 현상이지 전체 농촌인구현상의 변화라고 할 수 없었다. 이들 마을 실태조사에서 밝혀진 마을 인구구조의 특성에서 우리는 산업화나 도시의 영향을 받지 않는 순수농촌마을은 거주민의 노령화가 극단적으로 진행되어 마을 자체의 존속이 어려워지는 반면에 근교 농촌마을은 농촌의 성격이 흐려지면서 도시화 내지 산업화가 진행되는 것을 알 수 있었다. The rural problems which we are facing start from the extremely small sized population and the skewed population structure by age and sex. Thus we analyzed the change of the rural population. And we analyzed the recent return migration to the rural areas by comparing the recent in-migrants with out-migrants to rural areas. And by analyzing the rural village survey data which was to show the current characteristics of rural population, we found out the effects of the in -migrants to the rural areas and predicted the futures of rural villages by characteristics. The changes of rural population composition by age was very clear. As the out-migrants towards cities carried on, the population composition of young children aged 0~4 years was low and the aged became thick. The proportion of the population aged 0~4 years was 45.1% of the total population in 1970 and dropped down to 20.4% in 1995, which is predicted to become under 20% from now on. In the same period(1970~1995), the population aged 65 years and over rose from 4.2% to 11.9%. In 1960, before industrialization, the proportion of the population aged 0~4 years in rural areas was higher than that of cities. As the rural young population continuously moves to cities it became lower than that in urban areas from 1975 and the gap grew till 1990. But the proportion of rural population aged 0~4 years in 1995 became 6.2% and the gap reduced. We can say this is the change of the characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants in the rural areas. Also considering the compostion of the population by age group moving from urban to rural area in the late 1980s, 51.8% of the total migrants concentrates upon age group of 20~34 years and these people's educational level was higher than that of out-migrants to urban areas. This fact predicted the changes of the rural population, and the results will turn out as a change in the rural society. However, after comparing the population structure between the pure rural village of Bosun-gun and suburban village of Paju-gun which was an agriculture centered village but recently changed rapidly, the recent change of the rural population structure which the in-migrants to rural areas becomes younger is just a phenomenon in the suburban rural areas, not the change of the total rural areas in general. From the characteristics of the population structure of rural village from the field survey on these villages, we can see that in the pure rural villages without any effects from cities the regidents are highly aged, while industrialization and urbanization are making a progress in suburban villages. Therefore, the recent partial change of the rural population structure and the change of characteristics of the in-migrants toward rural areas is effecting and being effected by the population change of areas like suburban rural villages. Although there are return migrants to rural areas to change their jobs into agriculture, this is too minor to appear as a statistic effect.

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        低出產水準과 강한 男兒選好觀이 社會에 미치는 影響

        金泰憲(Tai-Hun Kim) 한국인구학회 1993 한국인구학 Vol.16 No.2

        Korean fertility level has dropped since the 1960's and the speed of decline has accelerated in the 1980's. In the results, the growth rate reached to less than 1 percent in 1990 and will be 『0』 percent growth in 2021. The total population will increase to 50,586 thousand persons in 2021 and then will decrease. With the rapid fertility decline the age structure of Korean population has changed : while the proportion of child population aged 0-14 is decreasing sharply, that of old-age population aged 65 and over is increasing. Because of the recent increase of sex ratio at birth, the sex structure among the young generation has been destorted; the sex ratio at age 0-4 was as high as 112.0 in 1990. The effects of these population phenomena on Korean society are the followings: 1) Old age dependency ratio is increasing rapidly and continuously and will be about 40.0 from the 2050's. 2) Because of the rapid decline of the number of births, the absolute number of the major labour force at age 25-34 will decrease after around 2000 and then from the 2010's become less than that in 1990. 3) Since the large fertility differentials by womens's educational level have continued and the relation between the educational levels of mothers and children are very strong, level has dropped among higher educated women first when the average fertility level has declined in Korea, the average educational level of the children is may be expected to be relatively low and then the future productivity is will be also low, which causes the decline of 'quality of population'. 4) When the high sex ratio at birth (over 110 since 1986) continues, number of brides will be short by over 20 percent from the 2010s, which will bring various kinds of social problems. Threfore, the counter measures in the concrete to relieve the heavy problems are recommended as follows : 1) The extention of the birth intervals, which helps to drop the population growth rate at the same level of nember of chuldren per women. 2) The positive supports for the out-migrants, which helps to reduce the population size without any destortion of age-sex structure. 3) The different supports of family planning for the higher and lower classes, which helps to reduce the gaps between different fertility levels of the classes and to keep and improve the quality of population. 4) Population education for both students and adults, which helps to minimize the gap between the private and public requirements.

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        지역재생정책에 대한 부산진구 정당정책토론회 공적담화분석

        이태헌(Tai Hun Lee), 정하영(Ha yeong Jeong), 김나랑(Na rang Kim) 한국정책분석평가학회 2018 政策分析評價學會報 Vol.28 No.2

        '스콜라' 이용 시 소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우, 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 7시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

        부전천을 지나는 복개도로는 도로수명의 한계를 다해서 보수공사가 필요한 시점이다. 더불어 도심 재생정책에 있어서 친수공간 조성에 대한 요구도 확대되고 있다. 본 연구는 부전천 복원사업안에 대한 검토를 바탕으로 2017년 11월 8일에 이루어진 부전천 복원사업안을 주제로 한 부산진구의 정당 공동 정책토론회 내용을 녹취하여 각 화자들의 담화분석을 실시하였다. 구체적으로 코퍼스분석 방법을 통해 토론자의 발언의 핵심어를 도출하여 토론회 참가자들 간의 부전천 복원에 대한 입장의 차이를 파악하였다. 이를 통해 본 연구는 지역공공사업과 관련한 공적토론을 수치화하는 계산적 방법인 코퍼스분석을 통해 집약함으로써 공공정책분야에 빅데이터를 활용한 텍스트분석 방법론을 도입하는 학술적인 기여를 하고 있다. Busan has tolerated a reckless and unplanned development during a period of rapid growth for rapid industrialization and industrialization. A typical example is a stream covered road that had constructed in order to expand the road infrastructure to meet the rapid increase of traffic demand in the high growth period. Now is the urgent time for the restoration of rivers because it is polluting ecological environment of rivers by covering rivers. Citizens' demands on their quality of life are increasing, and the demand for the physical environment of creating a hydrophilic space is also increasing. In addition, a policy of restoring the road to the original river is implicating, and a budget has been put in place to form a river improvement plan, but the progress has been stopped due to conflicts between stakeholders. The other issue is that the covered roads are limited to the life cycle and need to be repaired. The aim of study is to investigate cognitive dissonance and different position on the Bujeon Stream Restoration Project between stakeholders who were participated in the political party policy forum which was hold on November 8, 2017. This study analyzed the forum debate among the speakers with recorded discussion.ences of perception was analyzed by applying a corpus analysis.

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