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성장과 확산모형을 이용한 정보기술산업 시장의 중단기 수요예측
성웅현 성균관대학교 응용통계연구소 2002 통계연구 Vol.10 No.-
본 논문은 정보기술산업의 중단기 수요를 예측하기 위해서 사용되는 세가지 비선형 성장과 확산모형인 곰페르츠 성장모형, 로지스틱 성장 모형, 베스확산모형을 활용하였고, 본 논문의 주요내용은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 모수에 대한 비선형 추정과정에서 사용될 수 있는 초기값 설정 논리를 설명하였다. 둘째, 중단기 수요예측시 과소 혹은 과대 예측을 제한하기 위해서 잠재시장의 상한값 설정논리를 설명하였다. 셋째, 세가지 성장과 확산모형의 추정결과에 대한 적합도를 비교하였다. 결론적으로 이동정화 중장기 수요예측에 대하여는 로지스틱 성장모형, 소프트웨어 패키지 중장기 수요예측에는 곰페르츠 성장모형이 적합한 것으로 나타났다. This paper begins with a brief review of three kinds of non-linear growth and diffusion models and discusses the estimation procedure for parameters and compares the goodness-of-fit before concluding with an attempt at mid and short term demand forecasting. In the process of the parameter estimation in order to predict mid and short term demand, the construction of initial values of parameters and upper limit of potential market size should be considered to check the over-estimation or under-estimation of potential market size. It has been found that the logistic growth curve is adequate for demand forecasting of mobile telephone subscribers, and the gompertz growth curve is finally selected for the prediction of package software sales.
통계적 요인분석을 이용한 벤처기업의 기술경쟁력지수에 관한 연구
성웅현 한국품질경영학회 2003 품질경영학회지 Vol.31 No.2
The future will see all industries become technology-driven in the competitive global marketplace. Venture firms with deep technological roots and innovation strategies have some advantages. In this situation, existing methods for technology assessment are not enough to evaluate their relative tenchnology competitiveness. Therefore, a more useful and comprehensive approach is needed to obtain the desired outcomes for measuring the relative competitiveness of technology effectively. In this research, I applied factor analysis, which is methodology to be capable of determining the common factors and associated weights reasonably, to the development of the technology competitiveness indexes.
채웅석 한국역사연구회 2003 역사와 현실 Vol.- No.49
During the Yuan intervention period, the Koryo scholars - Choe Hae, Ahn Chuk, Yi Je-Hyon, Yi Kok etc. - started to study the Neo-Confucianism, and came to acknowledge the fact that Yuan became the cultural center and a formidable superiority throughout the world. They also believed that accepting the Yuan's world hegemony would help the Koryo dynasty to thrive once again, with the King back at the power center, and the Confucian scholars - who were depressed during the period of the military govenment - supporting the King. These scholars were fairly critical of their counterparts of the earlier generations for not promoting the Confucian philosophies enough, and maintained a generally reformative attitude toward social problems. For these scholars, the Neo-Confucian teachings, which were introduced from Yuan, served as a standard of rationality and universality, and also a basis for their reformative approaches. Yet in fear of the Koryo dynasty's total subjugation to Yuan, they were also trying to defend the political autonomy and the traditional qualities through contemplating the dynasty's history. They actually considered the Commitment made earlier by the Emperor Khubilai, which stated that there would be no changes in the Koryo ways of polity and culture, to they were claiming that the Commitment should be heeded and the Koryo culture should be preserved. But then again those things that they were so dearly trying to preserve were also what were (by themselves) deemed necessary to reform, because those qualities were not suitable for Neo-Confucianism.
기술력 평가에서 사업성수준과 기술성변수간 연관성에 관한 실증연구
성웅현 한국품질경영학회 2004 품질경영학회지 Vol.32 No.3
Technology competitiveness evaluates environmental and engineered technology and process at both the scientific and market levels. There are increasing concerns to measure the effects of the technology variables on the potential market feasibility levels. However, there are very little empirical analysis studies on that issue. This study investigates the impacts of technology variables on the levels of market feasibility based on 230 data obtained from Korea Technology Transfer Center. As various statistical analysis, the canonical discriminant model, logit discriminant model and classification model were used and their results were compared. This study results showed that major technology variables had very significant relations to discriminate high and low categories of market feasibility. Finally, this study will help building management strategies to level up the potential market performance and also help financial institutions to decide funds needed for small-sized technology firms.
Tae Oong Eom,Eun Suk Park,Jun Bum Park,Soon Chan Kwon,Hong Bo Sim,In Uk Lyo,Min Soo Kim 대한뇌혈관외과학회 2018 Journal of Cerebrovascular and Endovascular Neuros Vol.20 No.2
Objective : We investigated whether clipping or endovascular treatment (EVT) can reduce the incidence of delayed hydrocephalus. We also investigated whether additional procedures, namely lumbar drainage and extra- ventricular drainage (EVD), decrease the incidence of delayed hydrocephalus in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Materials and Methods : One-hundred and fifty-two patients who had undergone an operation for SAH were enrolled in this study. Clinical data, radiological data, and procedural data were investigated. Procedural data included the operating technique (clipping vs. EVT) and the use of additional procedures (no procedure, lumbar drainage, or EVD). Delayed hydrocephalus was defined as a condition in which the Evan's index was 0.3 or higher, as assessed using brain computed tomography more than 2 weeks after surgery, requiring shunt placement due to neurological deterioration. Results : Of the 152 patients, 45 (29.6%) underwent surgical clipping and 107 (70.4%) underwent EVT. Twenty-five (16.4%) patients developed delayed hydrocephalus. Age (p = 0.019), procedure duration (p = 0.004), and acute hydrocephalus (p = 0.030) were significantly correlated with the incidence of delayed hydrocephalus. However, the operation technique (p = 0.593) and use of an additional procedure (p = 0.378) were not significantly correlated with delayed hydrocephalus incidence. Conclusion : No significant difference in the incidence of delayed hydrocephalus was associated with operation technique or use of an additional procedure in patients with SAH. However, delayed hydrocephalus was significantly correlated with old age, long procedural duration, and acute hydrocephalus. Therefore, we recommend that additional procedures should be discontinued as soon as possible.