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- 저자 : Long-Fei Guan (검색결과 4 건)
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Triffin Dilemma and International Monetary System : Evidence from Pooled Mean-Group Estimation
Long Fei Guan,Wee Yeap Lau 한국유통과학회 2017 한국유통과학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2017 No.-
This study utilizes the panel data set of four major international currencies, USD, JPY, EUR and GBP from 1973 to 2013 with Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) estimator, to re-examine whether Triffin dilemma still exists through investigating the relationship between the reserve share, current account balance and real effective exchange rate. The evidence from the result indicates that Triffin dilemma exists only in the long run, and shows that in the long-run, current account balance is proportionate to the increased real effective exchange rate while varies inversely with the reserve shares. However, the estimation for the short-run is not significant to prove the existence of Triffin dilemma. In addition, we investigated the non-dollar panel sample and found that the international monetary system still suffers from Triffin dilemma even without the dollar. To overcome Triffin dilemma, three steps are suggested to be taken and in the longer time, a supranational currency is used to replace all the currencies in the world.
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Triffin Dilemma and International Monetary System : Evidence from Pooled Mean Group Estimation
Long-Fei Guan,Wee-Yeap Lau 한국유통과학회 2018 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.5 No.2
This study is motivated based on concern from some renowned scholars and central bankers whom have raised the issue of the sustainability of the International Monetary System (IMS). Using the panel data set of four major international currencies, USD, JPY, EUR and GBP from 1973 to 2013 with Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, to re-examine whether Triffin dilemma still exists through investigating the relationship between the reserve share, current account balance and real effective exchange rate. The evidence from the result indicates that Triffin dilemma exists only in the long run, and shows that in the long-run, current account balance is proportionate to the increased real effective exchange rate while varies inversely with the reserve shares. However, the estimation for the short-run is not significant to prove the existence of Triffin dilemma. In addition, we investigated the non-dollar panel sample and found that the international monetary system still suffers from Triffin dilemma even without the dollar. To overcome Triffin dilemma, immediate step such as having currency swap mechanism is recommended. In medium term, a multi-polar Monetary System is suggested, and in the longer time, a supranational currency will be used to replace all the currencies in the world.
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Cheng Xu,Shi-Ping Yang,Yuan Zhang,Ling-Long Tang,Guan-Qun Zhou,Xu Liu,Yan-Ping Mao,Rui Guo,Wen-Fei Li,Lei Chen,Ai-Hua Lin,Ying Sun,Jun Ma 대한암학회 2018 Cancer Research and Treatment Vol.50 No.3
Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of neutropenia during the first cycle of induction chemotherapy (IC-1) on survival in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC). Materials and Methods Eligible patients (n=545) with LANPC receiving IC+concurrent chemoradiotherapy were included. Based on nadir neutrophil after IC-1, all patients were categorized into three groups: no/grade 1-2/grade 3-4 neutropenia. Five-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were compared between groups and subgroups stratified by IC regimen. We also explored the occurrence of IC-1–induced myelosuppression events and the minimal value of post-treatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (post-NLRmin). Univariate/multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the effect of IC-1–induced neutropenia, timing of neutropenia, number of myelosuppression events, and high post-NLRmin on OS/DFS. Results Grade 1-2/grade 3-4 neutropenia were associated with poorer OS/DFS than no neutropenia (all p < 0.05); OS/DFS were not significantly different between patients experiencing grade 1-2 vs. 3-4 neutropenia. Neutropenia had no significant effect on OS/DFS in patients receiving docetaxel–cisplatin–5-fluorouracil (TPF). Grade 1-2 (grade 3-4) neutropenia negatively influenced OS/DFS in patients receiving cisplatin–5-fluorouracil (PF) (PF and docetaxel– cisplatin [TP]; all p < 0.05). Neutropenia, two/three myelosuppression events, and high post-NLRmin ( 1.33) was most frequent on days 5-10, second and third week of IC-1, respectively. After adjustment for covariates, IC-1–induced neutropenia, two/three myelosuppression events, and post-NLRmin 1.33 were validated as negative predictors of OS/DFS (all p < 0.05); timing of neutropenia had no significant effect. Conclusion Occurrence of neutropenia, number of myelosuppression events, and high post-NLRmin during PF/TP IC-1 have prognostic value for poor survival in LANPC.
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Jia-Wei Lv,Xiao-Dan Huang,Yu-Pei Chen,Guan-Qun Zhou,Ling-Long Tang,Yan-Ping Mao,Wen-Fei Li,Ai-Hua Lin,Jun Ma,Ying Sun 대한암학회 2018 Cancer Research and Treatment Vol.50 No.2
Purpose Conditional survival (CS) provides important information on survival for a period of time after diagnosis. Currently, information on CS patterns of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking. We aimed to analyze survival rate over time and estimate CS for NPC patients using a national population-based registry. Materials and Methods Patients diagnosed with NPC between 1973 and 2007 with at least 5-year follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method. Results For 7,713 patients analyzed, adjusted baseline 5-year overall survival improved significantly from 36.0% in patients diagnosed in 1973-1979, 41.7% in 1980-1989, 46.6% in 1990- 1999, to 54.7% in 2000-2007 (p < 0.01). CS analysis demonstrated that for every additional year survived, adjusted probability of surviving the next 5 years increased from 66.7% (localized), 54.0% (regional), and 35.3% (distant) at the time of diagnosis, to 83.7% (localized), 75.0% (regional), and 62.2% (distant) for patients who had survived 5 years. Adjusted 5-year CS differed among age, sex, tumor histology, ethnicity, and stage subgroups initially, but converged with time. Conclusion Treatment outcomes of NPC patients have greatly improved over the decades. Increases in CS become more prominent in patients with distant disease than in those with localized or regional disease as patients survive longer. CS provides more dynamic prognostic information for patients who have survived a period of time after diagnosis.
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