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RISS 인기검색어
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- 저자 : Jon Franczyk (검색결과 7 건)
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Franczyk, Jon,Chang, Heejun John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 2009 Hydrological processes Vol.23 No.6
<P>Climate changes brought on by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to have a significant effect on the Pacific Northwest hydrology during the 21st century. Many climate model simulations project higher mean annual temperatures and temporal redistribution of precipitation. This is of particular concern for highly urbanized basins where runoff changes are more vulnerable to changes in climate. The Rock Creek basin, located in the Portland metropolitan area, has been experiencing rapid urban growth throughout the last 30 years, making it an ideal study area for assessing the effect of climate and land cover changes on runoff. A combination of climate change and land cover change scenarios for 2040 with the semi-distributed AVSWAT (ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model was used to determine changes in mean runoff depths in the 2040s (2030–2059) from the baseline period (1973–2002) at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Statistically downscaled climate change simulation results from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM) found that the region would experience an increase of 1·2 °C in the average annual temperature and a 2% increase in average annual precipitation from the baseline period. AVSWAT simulation shows a 2·7% increase in mean annual runoff but a 1·6% decrease in summer runoff. Projected climate change plus low-density, sprawled urban development for 2040 produced the greatest change to mean annual runoff depth (+5·5%), while climate change plus higher-density urban development for 2040 resulted in the smallest change (+5·2%), when compared with the climate and land cover of the baseline period. This has significant implications for water resource managers attempting to implement adaptive water resource policies to future changes resulting from climate and urbanization. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</P>
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Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: Toward Spatially-Oriented Impact Assessmemts
Jon Franczyk,장희준 국토지리학회 2007 국토지리학회지 Vol.41 No.4
Global climate change is likely to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources. Changes in the timing and magnitude of runoff as a result of climate change will have enormous social and economic impacts on societies around the world. Regional water resource managers need to assess potential consequences and to establish adaptive water resource management strategies. In this essay, we first overview the interactions among economics, water resources, and climate change. Second, we provide a brief history of modeling in water resource management and how it has been integrated with economic models, as well as outline general considerations in the development of an integrated assessment model. We then review available economic impact assessment models under climate change. By comparing exemplary cases studies of these models, we identified a suitable model for comprehensive and spatially-oriented impact assessment. The spatial equilibrium model that takes into account various socioeconomic sectors within the basin provides a reasonable means for unraveling the coupled natural and human systems under climate uncertainty.
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장희준,배덕효,Jon Franczyk 한국환경정책·평가연구원 2006 환경정책연구 Vol.5 No.4
As global climate change is expected to influence regional water resources, water resource managers need to establish adaptive management to cope with climate change. We examined adaptive management efforts in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands. Each country is implementing different levels of adaptation efforts based on current water management practices, institutional arrangements, as well as the varying degree of water availability, current climate effects and expected climate change effects. Based on the comparison of these countries, we suggest policy implications for the sustainable water resource management of Korea under climate changes. 기후변화가 지역의 수자원에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됨에 따라 수자원 관리자들은 이에 대응한 적응전략을 수립하는 것이 필요하다. 이에 본고에서는 미국, 영국, 캐나다, 오스트렐리아, 네덜란드의 적응관리의 실태를 검토하였다. 이들 나라들은 현재의 수자원 관리관행, 제도적 장치, 기후변화의 잠재적 수자원 영향에 따라 매우 상이한 적응 관리를 하고 있다. 이들 나라들의 비교연구를 통하여 기후변화에 따른 한국에서의 지속가능한 수자원 관리를 위한 정책적 관련성을 도출하였다.
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Chang, Hee-Jun,Franczyk, Jon,Bae, Deg-Hyo Korea Environment Institute 2006 환경정책연구 Vol.5 No.4
기후변화가 지역의 수자원에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됨에 따라 수자원 관리자들은 이에 대응한 적응전략을 수립하는 것이 필요하다. 이에 본고에서는 미국, 영국, 캐나다, 오스트렐리아, 네덜란드의 적응관리의 실태를 검토하였다. 이들 나라들은 현재의 수자원 관리관행, 제도적 장치, 기후변화의 잠재적 수자원 영향에 따라 매우 상이한 적응관리를 하고 있다. 이들 나라들의 비교연구를 통하여 기후변화에 따른 한국에서의 지속 가능한 수자원 관리를 위한 정책적 관련성을 도출하였다. As global climate change is expected to influence regional water resources, water resource managers need to establish adaptive management to cope with climate change. We examined adaptive management efforts in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands. Each country is implementing different levels of adaptation efforts based on current water management practices, institutional arrangements, as well as the varying degree of water availability, current climate effects and expected climate change effects. Based on the comparison of these countries, we suggest policy implications for the sustainable water resource management of Korea under climate changes.
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( Hee Jun Chang ),( Jon Franczyk ),( Deg Hyo Bae ) 한국환경정책평가연구원 2006 환경정책연구 Vol.5 No.4
기후변화가 지역의 수자원에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됨에 따라 수자원 관리자들은 이에 대응한 적응전략을 수립하는 것이 필요하다. 이에 본고에서는 미국, 영국, 캐나다, 오스트렐리아, 네덜란드의 적응관리의 실태를 검토하였다. 이들 나라들은 현재의 수자원 관리관행, 제도적 장치, 기후변화의 잠재적 수자원 영향에 따라 매우 상이한 적응관리를 하고 있다. 이들 나라들의 비교연구를 통하여 기후변화에 따른 한국에서의 지속가능한 수자원 관리를 위한 정책적 관련성을 도출하였다. As global climate change is expected to influence regional water resources, water resource managers need to establish adaptive management to cope with climate change. We examined adaptive management efforts in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands. Each country is implementing different levels of adaptation efforts based on current water management practices, institutional arrangements, as well as the varying degree of water availability, current climate effects and expected climate change effects. Based on the comparison of these countries, we suggest policy implications for the sustainable water resource management of Korea under climate changes.
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