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      • KCI등재

        Statistical Study and Prediction of Variability of Erythemal Ultraviolet Irradiance Solar Values in Valencia, Spain

        Gonzalo Gurrea,Vicente Blanca-Giménez,Vicente Pérez,María-Antonia Serrano,Juan-Carlos Moreno,Solar Radiation Group of the Universitat Politècnica de València 한국기상학회 2018 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.54 No.4

        The goal of this study was to statistically analyse the variability of global irradiance and ultraviolet erythemal (UVER) irradiance and their interrelationships with global and UVER irradiance, global clearness indices and ozone. A prediction of short-term UVER solar irradiance values was also obtained. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were included in the data set, as well as a time series of ultraviolet irradiance variability (UIV). The study period was from 2005 to 2014 and approximately 250,000 readings were taken at 5-min intervals. The effect of the clearness indices on global irradiance variability (GIV) and UIV was also recorded and bi-dimensional distributions were used to gather information on the two measured variables. With regard to daily GIVand UIV, it is also shown that for global clearness index (kt) values lower than 0.6 both global and UVER irradiance had greater variability and that UIVon cloud-free days (kt higher than 0.65) exceeds GIV. To study the dependence between UIVand GIV the χ2 statistical method was used. It can be concluded that there is a 95% probability of a clear dependency between the variabilities.A connection between high kt (corresponding to cloudless days) and low variabilities was found in the analysis of bidimensional distributions. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were also analyzed and it was possible to calculate the probable future values of UVER irradiance by extrapolating the values of the adjustment curve obtained from the Gumbel distribution.

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