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Population and Labor Force in North Korea: Trends and Implications
Nicholas Eberstadt 한국인구학회 1991 한국인구학 Vol.14 No.2
From the standpoint of statistical data, North Korea─fromally, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)─remains a modern-day hermit kingdom. Although all centrally planned Leninist states have made a point of controlling and limiting the data they release to the outside world, North Korea’s controls have been far stricter over the past generation than those of virtually any other Communist country. Since the early 1960s, even such seemingly mundane tidbits as national population totals have been routinely and carefully suppressed. In 1989, however, Pyongyang broke a quarter century of silence by providing the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) some details about demographic and social trends within the country. These data were released as a condition for UNFPA technical assistance with the DPRK’s first-every population census, prospectively scheduled for January 1992. Though limited in scope and attended by certain ambiguities, these figures nevertheless provide a basis for reconstructing certain important trends in this largely uncharted society. This paper will review some of these findings, particularly as they pertain to North Korea’s population and labor forec.
Assessing "National Strategy" in North and South Korea
( Nicholas Eberstadt ) 한국국방연구원 1996 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.8 No.1
This paper examines the extent to which the domestic and external policies of the two Koreas can be described in terms of "national strategy." Though "national strategy" remains a problematic construct for a variety of theoretical and practical reasons, this study attempts to deploy it to describe the evolving economic, military, and security policies of the Democratic People`s Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea from the partition of the Korean peninsula in 1945 to the present. The paper proceeds through four sections. The first introduces and frames the problem. The second section examines, and attempts to describe, the "national strategy" of the DPRK. The third section does the same for the ROK`s post-partition "national strategies." The final section reviews and assesses some of the findings, and speculates about the challenges that may face national strategy in North and South Korea in the years ahead.
Economic Implications of a "Bold Switchover"in DPRK Security Policy
( Nicholas Eberstadt ) 한국국방연구원 2005 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.17 No.1
This paper examines the potentialities for a still-socialist DPRK economic policy, international financial assistance, and North Korean economic performance. it also examines the potential economic ramifications of a DPRK shift to something like "defense sufficiency," from its current "Military-First Politics"stance, positing that the DPRK would remain as an independent socialist state on the Korean peninsula. The study points to three basic findings: 1) North Norea`s recent dismal economic performance cannot be explained in terms of the generic inefficiencies of communist economies, but rather must be understood as the consequence of Pyongyang`s particular and peculiar interpretation of "socialism with Korean characteristics," in which hyper-militarization of the economy and international extortion based on military menace, figure centrally; 2) considerable new sources of Western aid would be available for Pyongyang for a genuine "bold switchover" in DPRK security policy, and even more could be found to support a shift to market-oriented economic reforms; and 3) to judge by "structural growth equations" of international economic patterns, North Korea`s economic performance would likely be much better than today after a "bold switchover" in military/security policy, even if Pyongyang continued to embrace communist central economic planning.