대표농도경로 (RCP) 시나리오에 따른 회야강 유역의 미래 유출 및 유사 변화 분석

황창수(Hwang, Chang Su),최철웅(Choi, Chul Uong),최지선(Choi, Ji Sun) 대한공간정보학회 2014 대한공간정보학회지 Vol.22 No.3

본 연구는 미래 기후변화 및 토지피복변화가 유역 내 유출량과 유사량의 거동에 가져올 영향을 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 기상자료는 IPCC 5차 평가보고서를 위해 새롭게 논의된 RCP 시나리오 중 서로 상반되는 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 기후전망 (2011~2100년) 이 사용되었으며, 토지피복지도는 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 사회ㆍ경제 스토리라인과 로지스틱 회귀모형 (LR)을 이용하여 개발 된 모델에 의해 구축되었다. 기후변화만 고려한 경우, 토지피복변화만 고려한 경우, 기후변화 및 토지피복변화 모두 고려한 경우의 세 가지 시나리오를 설정하고, 각 시나리오에 따른 유출량 및 유사량을 모의한 결과 계절적으로 매우 명확한 변화를 나타내었다. 기후변화는 봄과 겨울에 유출량을 증가시키고 여름과 가을에 유출량을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났으며, 유사량 역시 유출량과 동일한 변화의 양상을 보였다. 토지피복변화는 유출량을 증가시키는 반면 유사량은 감소시키며, 이는 도시화로 인한 불투수 면적의 증가에 의한 것으로 판단된다. 토지피복변화는 기후변화에 비해 유출량에 적은 영향을 끼치나, 기후변화에 의해 초래된 유출량 문제를 더욱 극대화 시킬 수 있다. 따라서 지속적인 수자원 관리를 위하여 기후변화의 잠재적 영향을 파악하고, 토지피복변화에 따른 적절한 수자원 대응 정책 마련이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a socialㆍeconomic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it"s required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

기업집단의 최고경영자 퇴출이 계열사 전략변화에 미치는 영향

김수정(Su Jung Kim),김창수(Chang Su Kim) 한국전략경영학회 2015 전략경영연구 Vol.18 No.2

계열사 최고경영자 교체현상은 기업집단의 내부노동시장을 통한 인적자원 활용뿐만 아니라 외부노동시장을 통한 인력충원을 수반하게 된다. 본 연구는 기업집단을 연구대상으로 한정 하여 기업집단 내 계열사 최고경영자가 기업집단 외부로 퇴출되는 현상이 계열사 수준의 전략변화도에 미치는 효과를 살펴보고, 이러한 전략변화도 효과가 승계유형 및 재벌집단 여부에 의해 어떻게 조절 되는지를 분석하였다. 이는 기업집단의 최고경영자 활용과 퇴출현상을 살펴봄에 있어 기업집단의 내부노동시장 활용이 갖는 긍정적인 측면과 부정적인 측면을 동시에 살펴보기 위한 것이다. 이와 같은 연구배경 하에 71개 기업집단에 속한 119개 계열사를 대상으로 2001년부터 2010년 간 발생한 270개 최고경영자 교체사례를 추적?분석하였다. 실증분석 결과, 계열사 최고경영자가 기업집단 외부퇴출 형태로 교체될 경우 해당 계열사의 전략변화도는 커지는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 최고경영자 외부퇴출과 계열사 전략변화도 간의 정(+)의 관계는 외부승계의 경우 강화되며 재벌집단의 경우 약화되는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 기업이 외부시장을 통해 최고경영자를 충원함으로써 전략변화를 모색하고 조직의 경직화를 예방할 수 있음을 보여준다. 하지만, 비재벌집단과 비교하여 재벌집단에 구조적 관성이 더 크게 존재하며 이러한 구조적 관성이 전략적 변화를 저해할 수 있음을 시사한다. This study examines the effect of CEO weeding-out in Korean business groups on strategic change of their affiliates and further investigates the moderating role of outside succession and chaebol dummy on the relationship. Using the sample of KOSPI 200 firms belonging to business groups between 2001 and 2010, we found the positive relationship between the CEO weeding-out and strategic change. We also found a positive interaction effect of CEO weeding-out and outside succession on strategic change. This result supports the idea that the strategic change effect is amplified when CEO weeding-out is combined with outside succession. In contrast, it turned out that the effect of CEO weeding-out on strategic change is lower in chaebol-affiliates than in non-chaebol affiliates. Perhaps, chaebol-affiliates are likely to show lower strategic changes in spite of CEO weeding-out, due to structural inertia existing in chaebol groups.

Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

Lee, Jae-Bum,Cha, Jun-Seok,Hong, Sung-Chul,Choi, Jin-Young,Myoung, Ji-Su,Park, Rokjin J.,Woo, Jung-Hun,Ho, Changhoi,Han, Jin-Seok,Song, Chang-Keun Elsevier 2015 Atmospheric environment Vol.106 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global–regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996–2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R<SUP>2</SUP> values (0.4–0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016–2025 (the 2020s), 2046–2055 (the 2050s), and 2091–2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2–8 ppb, −3 to 8 ppb, and −7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Change in ozone level is determined by the combination of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC emissions. </LI> <LI> Ozone level over East Asia would get worse in the near future (the 2020s) than far future. </LI> <LI> A high-concentration event generally increases and more frequently occurs in the future. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developing country depends more on emissions change. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developed country depends more on climate change. </LI> </UL> </P>

안전상비의약품 판매 이후 중독환자 특성 변화

김창영,이의중,이성우,김수진,한갑수,Kim, Chang Yeong,Lee, Eui Jung,Lee, Sung Woo,Kim, Su Jin,Han, Kap Su 대한임상독성학회 2018 대한임상독성학회지 Vol.16 No.1

Purpose: On November 15, 2012, sales of OTC (Over-The-Counter) drugs began at convenience stores, which changed the accessibility of some drugs. As a result, the exposure and access patterns of these drugs could have changed. In this study, we reviewed the changes in the characteristics of drug poisoning patients because of the reposition of nonprescription drugs according to the revised Pharmaceutical Affairs Act. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted to evaluate changes in characteristics of drug poisoning patients between 2008 and 2016. A registry was developed by an emergency medical center in a local tertiary teaching hospital, and patients who visited the center were enrolled in this registry. We compared two periods, from 2008 to 2012 (Pre OTC) and from 2013 to 2016 (Post OTC), for type of intoxicant, time from poisoning to visiting the emergency center, intention, psychiatric history, previous suicidal attempt, alcohol status, and emergency room outcomes. The primary outcome was the number of patients who took acetaminophen and NSAIDs (nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs). Secondary outcomes were ICU admission rate, mortality rate, and number of patients who visited the ER when the pharmacy was closed after taking acetaminophen and NSAIDs (nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs). Results: Among 1,564 patients, 945 and 619 patients visited the emergency room during pre and post OTC periods. The number of patients with acetaminophen and NSAIDs poisoning decreased from 9.2% to 6.1% (p=0.016). The ICU admission rate and mortality rate in the emergency room did not show significant results in the relevant patient groups, and so was the number of patients visiting ER when the pharmacy was closed taking acetaminophen and NSAIDs. Conclusion: Despite the sales of nonprescription drugs at convenience stores, the number of acetaminophen and NSAIDs poisoning patients decreased.

미디어 패러다임의 변화에 따른 서비스디자인 접점의 미디어 활용에 관한 연구: 트랜스미디어, 웹2.0, 웹3.0의 특성 중심으로

이수정 ( Su Jeong Yi ),임한울 ( Han Wool Yim ),장동련 ( Dinr Yun Chang ) 한국기초조형학회 2014 기초조형학연구 Vol.15 No.1

기술의 발달로 인한 미디어 패러다임의 변화에 의해 사용자들의 라이프스타일과 커뮤니케이션 방식이 진화하고 있다. 사용자들은 다양한 서비스를 접할 때에 이러한 변화가 반영되기를 요구하고 있다. 이를 위해 사용자의 변화된 라이프스타일을 이해하고 니즈를 충족시키는 최적의 경험을 서비스와 사용자가 만나는 접촉점에서 이끌어 내는 것이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구는 서비스디자인 접점(touchpoints)에 있어서 급변하는 미디어 상황과 사용자의 양상을 반영할 수 있는 미디어의 활용을 모색하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 이론적 고찰을 통하여 미디어 패러다임의 변화 특성을 9가지의 요인으로 도출하였고 이를 성격적 특성으로 카테고리화하였다. 또한 접점으로써 활용 가능성이 높은 사례들을 수집하여 변화 특성을 중심으로 분석하였다. 분석한 결과, 접점의 미디어 활용에 있어 미디어의 ``기술적 특성``은 서비스의 목적에 따라 ``사용자의 행위``를 자극하고, 이러한 자극이 ``사용자의 경험``을 유도하는 것을 발견할 수 있었다. 또한 서비스디자인 접점에서의 미디어 활용은 사용자 경험 특성인 ``감각체험, 감성, 몰입`` 세 요소를 자극시켜 사용자의 서비스 경험을 긍정적으로 고취시키는 역할을 할 수 있다는 것을 발견하였다. 본 연구는 패러다임의 과도기적 현상을 보이는 현시대에 있어 서비스디자인 접점의 미디어 활용을 위해 필요한 변화 특성들을 제시함으로써 향후 접점에서 미디어 패러다임의 변화를 반영할 수 있는 기틀을 마련했다는 점에서 의의가 있다. 접점에 있어 패러다임의 변화 특성과 다양한 미디어 활용의 적절한 접목은 사용자의 욕구를 더욱 효과적·긍정적으로 충족시키고 총체적 경험을 실현시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. Recently user`s lifestyle and way of communication have evolved according to the change of paradigm with development of technology, therefore the user claims these were reflected in the various services that they meet. To respond to the change, it is demanded to understand their changed lifestyle and satisfy their needs with a touchpoint between the service and users to give them perfect experience. Therefore this study seeks out rapidly changing trend and using of media that can reflect the aspects of users in a service design touchpoint. For this, this study establishes the characteristics of changes in media paradigm as nine factors and categorizes them into their traits. The more likely cases as a touchpoint are also collected and analyzed based on characteristics of their changes. As a result, technological traits of media stimulate users` behavior according to purpose of service and it can be founded that their experiences happen by this. Also, touchpoint of service design can make their experience positive by stimulating three factors of its traits-sense, experience, sensitivity, and flow. This study is meaningful that it paves the way for a reflection of media paradigm shift on future touchpoint by suggesting characteristics of changes that are needed to using of media in service design touchpoint. It is expected that a proper combination of characteristics of paradigm shift and utilization of various media to be more effective for users, satisfy their needs positively and realize their total experience.

장기간 숙성에 따른 죽초 및 목초액의 이화학적 변화

구창섭,문성필,박상범,권수덕 한국목재공학회 2002 목재공학 Vol.30 No.4

졸참나무, 맹종죽 및 소나무로부터 제조한 미정제 죽초 및 목초액을 약 1년 간 저장하고, 이들의 이화학적 변화를 주기적으로 분석하였다. pH, 유기산·용해타르 함량 및 비중은 전 숙성기간 중 큰 변화가 관찰되지 않았다. 그러나 색차의 경우 7∼10개월 사이에서 현저한 변화를 나타내었다. 또한 이 기간동안에 이들 죽초 및 목초액의 색깔은 연한 노랑 띤 오렌지색에서 자주색과 오렌지색으로 크게 변화하였다. 죽초 및 목초액 중 유기산 및 중성 성분(dihydro-2(3H)-furanone, furfural, furfuryl alcohol, 2-hydroxy-1-methyl-1-cyclopenten-3-one, 1-hydroxy-2-propanone, methanol)들의 함량은 3개월 간격으로 주기적인 증감을 나타내었다. 특히 유기산류와 중성 성분들의 관계는 0.92 정도의 높은 상관관계를 나타내었다. 페놀류의 함량은 비록 유사한 주기적인 증감이 관찰되었으나, 그 함량의 경우 숙성 전 기간에 걸쳐 감소하였다. Three different kinds of the crude vinegars obtained from oak(Quercus serrata), bamboo(Phyllostachys pubescens) and pine(Pinus densiflora) species were stored for approximately one year and periodically analyzed to monitor their physicochemical changes. Small changes in physical properties, such as the pH, specific gravity and amount of organic acids as well as water-soluble tar were observed in the entire course of aging period. However, the color difference of the vinegars showed a remarkable change between 7 and 10 months. In addition, these vinegars' colors changed from light yellowish orange to much deeper purple and orange during this period. The amount of organic acids and neutral compounds(dihydro-2(3H)-furanone, furfural, furfuryl alcohol, 2-hydroxy-1-methyl-1-cyclopenten-3-one, 1-hydroxy-2-propanone and methanol) in the vinegars increased or decreased periodically every three months. A good linear relationship (correlation coefficient of ca. 0.92) was obtained between the amount of organic acids and the amount of neutral compounds in such changes. However, although the amount of phenols increased or decreased periodically, its amount was decreased over the entire aging period.

한ㆍ일 도시가스산업의 생산성 비교분석

최인수(In Su Choi),도범성(Bum Sung Do),박창수(Chang Soo Park),박중구(Jung Gu Park) 한국가스학회 2009 한국가스학회지 Vol.13 No.2

본고는 21세기 들어 고유가와 기후변화협약에 대응하여 중요성이 더해지고 있는 한국과 일본의 도시가스기업의 생산성을 분석하였다. 맘퀴스트 생산성 지수(Malmquist Productivity Index: MPI)를 통해 1997년부터 2005년까지 한국 30개, 일본 5개 기업들의 재무제표를 활용하여 기간 전체로, 그리고 수요의 구조변화를 나타내었던 2000년을 기준으로 이전과 이후의 생산성을 평가하였다. 분석의 결과, 첫째, 1996년~2005년 전체 기간의 MPI 누적지수에서 한국의 도시가스산업이 일본보다 상위에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 기간별로 본 MPI 개선효과는 일본의 경우 1997~2000년 동안 -1.03%에서 2001~2005년 동안에는 -1.72%로 근소한 차이를 나타낸 반면, 한국의 경우에는 전반기 0.37%(금융외환위기를 경험한 98년 제외시 0.80%)이었지만 후반기에 -0.60%로 악화된 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 후반기 한국의 MPI 악화는 기술적 효율성 지수보다는 기술변화 지수가 전반기 -0.88%(98년 제외시 0.29%)에서 후반기 -1.29%로 크게 악화된 것에 기인하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이에 따라 한국의 도시가스사업은 2001년 이후 악화되고 있는 생산성 증가율과 악화의 요인이 되고 있는 기술변화를 개선하는 정책적 노력이 필요하다. This article makes a comparative analysis on the productivity in gas distribution industry between Korea and Japan, using Malmquist productivity index(MPI). The estimated MPI during 1997~2005 shows that the productivity of Korean gas distribution industry has been generally higher than that of Japanese gas distribution industry. But Korean MPI made a drastic change from positive improvement (+ 0.37) during 1997~2000 to severe deterioration (-0.60) during 2001~2005, while Japan MPI has seldom changed. This change of Korean MPI is analyzed to result from the worsening of technical change rather than technical efficiency change. According to this result, Korean gas distribution industry needs to improve the technical change.

송이 균환내 토양수분의 시공간적 변화

구창덕 ( Gu Chang Deog ),김재수 ( Kim Jae Su ),이상희 ( Lee Sang Hui ),박재인 ( Park Jae In ),안광태 ( An Gwang Tae ) 한국산림과학회 2003 한국산림과학회지 Vol.92 No.6

Water is critically important for Tricholoma matsutake(Tm) growth because it is the major component of the mushroom by over 90%. The mushroom absorbs water through the below ground hyphal colony. Therefore, the objectives of our study were to investigate spatio-temporal water changes in Tm colonies. This study was carried out at Tm fruiting sites in Sogni Mt National Park, where the below-ground fairy-ring colonies have been irrigated. To identify spatial water status within the Tm soil colony soil moisture and ergosterol content were measured at six positions including a mushroom fruiting position on the line of the colony radius. To investigate temporal soil moisture changes in the soil colony, Time Domain Reflectometry(TDR) sensors were established at the non-colony and colony front edge, and water data were recorded with CRlOX data logger from late August to late October. Before irrigation, whereas it was 12.8% at non-colony, the soil water content within Tm colony was 8.0% at 0-5cm from the colony front edge, 6.2% at 10-15cm and 6.5-7.5% at 20-40cm. And the content was 12.1% at 80cm distance from the colony edge, which is similar to that at the non-colony. In contrast, ergosterol content which is proportional to the live hyphal biomass was only 0.4pg/g fresh soil at the uncolonized soil, while 4.9 ㎍/g fresh soil at the front edge where the hyphae actively grow, and 3.8 .㎍/g fresh soil at the fruiting position, l.l ㎍/g at 20cm distance and 0.4㎍/g in the 40cm rear area. Generally, in the Tm fungal colony the water content changes were reversed to the ergosterol content changes. While the site was watered during August to October, the soil water contents were 13.5-23.0% within the fungal colony, whereas it was 14.5-26.0% at the non-colony. That is, soil water content in the colony was lower by 1.0-3.0% than that in the non-colonized soil. Our results show that Tm colony consumes more soil water than other parts. Especially the front 30cm within the hyphal colony parts is more critical for soil water absorption.

만성 정신분열증 환자에서 Paroxetine과 Haloperidol 병합투여시 정신병리증상과 Haloperidol, Reduced Haloperidol 혈중농도의 변화

한창수,이민수,김표한,Han, Chang Su,Lee, Min Soo,Kim, Pyo Han 대한생물정신의학회 1996 생물정신의학 Vol.3 No.2

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors(SSRIs), as haloperidol, ore metabolized in the cytochrome P450IID6. They can cause inhibition of metabolism of antipsychotics to elevate the serum level of antipsychotics and exacerbate the extrapyramidal symptoms when co-administered with antipsychotics. Among these SSRIs, there ore a few studies about paroxetine compared to fluoxetine or sertraline. In this study, we have intended to know the drug interaction of paroxetine and haloperidol when co-administered two drugs for the chronic schizophrenics by assessing the changes of positive, negative symptoms and extrapyramidal symptoms. for this purpose, we selected 29 subjects, the chronic schizophrenics with no physical problems. They were under maintenance therapy of haloperidol. They ore randomly assigned to placebo group(n=12) and drug group(n=17) by using double blind method. And then, placebo or paroxetine 20mg were administered to the subjects of each groups during 8 week period. We have assessed their psychopathology and extrapyramidal symptoms using Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale(PANSS), Hamilton Rating Scale lor Depression(HRSD), Simpson-Angus Scale at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 weeks and serum haloperidol, reduced haloperidol levels at 0, 4, 8 weeks during the period. The results ore analysed by using repeated measure MANOVA. 27 subjects have completed the study during 8 weeks. among the subjects, 1) PANSS, HRSD ; no significant difference between groups. 2) Simpson-Angus Scale ; no significant change according to the time and no significant difference between the groups(no group and time effect). 3) Haloperidol and reduced haloperidol level ; no significant change. When co-administered paroxetine and haloperidol, there ore no significant changes of the psychopothology and no significant changes of the extrapyramidal symptoms. In this result, paroxetine seems to be not to affect the metabolism of haloperidol.

기후변화에 대응한 목재수급 정책과제

민경택(Min, Kyung-Taek),장철수(Chang, Cheol-Su),허경태(Hur, Gyong-Tae),이동필 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Wood products have many attributes that make them a smart choice when it comes to climate change. First, much of the carbon absorbed by growing trees is stored in products. Using more wood also means less fossil fuel consumption. Wood is endlessly renewable, and life cycle assessment studies show that it requires substantially less energy to manufacture than other materials such as steel and concrete. Wood buildings can be easily deconstructed and reused, which means they can continue to store carbon indefinitely. And using wood from sustainably managed forests helps to ensure that forests and their carbon storage potential continue to grow, which contribute to local community economy. This report focuses on international forest policies related to climate change and their implications to Korean forestry and the forest products sector, and some policy suggestions are made. Climate change and climate change mitigation are currently hot topics at the international level. Forest is carbon sink but also regarded as carbon emitter when it is deforested and degraded. REDD(Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) and HWP(Harvested Wood Products) are important issues at the post-Kyoto Protocol. Illegal logging is also a major issue in the wood products trade. Major developed countries adopt wood promotion policies to tackle climate change and construct a low-carbon green economy. They promote the merits and provide some technical information when using wood. In Korea, wood consumption is about 27 million cubic meters per year, and self-sufficiency of wood is 13.5%. Domestic wood is used to produce pulp and particle boards in large part. Poor forest resource structure, high cost in wood harvest, negative perceptions to harvest, and low infrastructures are challenging issues in domestic wood supply. The Korean government also adopts Low Carbon Green Growth as a policy base. The demand for wood biomass energy is increasing. These are opportunities to the wood industry. But high production cost in wood harvest and the thin wood consumption culture are weaknesses. We should establish a wood promotion strategy to overcome weaknesses and exploit opportunities. We made some policy suggestions to promote wood use as follows: 1) campaign to increase the utilization and consumption of wood in the public side 2) develop and disseminate durable wood goods, such as engineered wood 3) adopt carbon labelling to show the carbon sequestration function of wood products 4) increase wood supply through utilization of forest residues, short-rotation coppice in idle farmland, and international cooperaton 5) establish technical standards to certify the safety of wood products 6) legislate wood utilization to tackle climate change.