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Steady-State Analysis and Trade Balance Convergence Rate of ASEAN Member Countries
Agus Maolana HIDAYAT1,Rina INDIASTUTI2,Budiono BUDIONO3,Ferry HADIYANTO4 한국유통과학회 2021 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.8 No.6
The international trade role of a country depends on its economic condition, international economic openness, and cooperative orientation in its trade. This research analyzes AFTA free trade relating to the steady-state, disparity, and the ASEAN members’ trade balance convergence rate. The data used was taken from UNCTAD, ASYB, and Central Bank of Indonesia. The analysis model used was the most appropriate from Common, Fixed Effect Model (FEM), Random Effect Model (REM), and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). ASEAN members’ balance trade reached a different steady-state for every country, therefore convergence pattern did not take place, and the divergence pattern occurred in trade balance among the member countries. The divergent trade balance was due to the different early economic conditions, macroeconomic development, trade openness, and trade facilities and infrastructures in each country. It was also due to the ASEAN intratrade cooperative role and low investment coming from intra-ASEAN foreign investment. To promote trade and lower divergent trade balance, it is necessary to promote intra-ASEAN trade and create a conducive situation for foreign capital investors.
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