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Railway system is consisted of resources such as rail-line, signalling system, and railcars. It is necessary to efficiently utilize these limited and expensive resources as much as possible up to given line capacity. So far, we treat the line capacity as the criteria for evaluating investment alternatives or for restricting train frequencies, and this criteria is calculated statical and experimental numerical formula. But, line capacity has special attribute that changes dynamically according to operational conditions, so there is a need of new line capacity estimation system. In this paper, we present systematic line capacity analysis model. The proposed model has three main components ; TPS(tain performance simulator), PES(parameter evaluation simulator), LCS(line capacity simulator).
In the railway system, transportation plan corresponds to a master plan for transport services. This service plan must be constructed to minimize operational cost or maximize revenue considering transportation demands and resource capacities in the railway operation company, and it includes several sub-planning activities such as train operation frequency plan, train (schedule) plan, train capacity assignment plan, and rolling stock requirement plan. In these sub-planning processes, train can be considered as a product for providing customer services, and customer demands and operational advantages must be considered. In this paper, we present an effect estimation system for the train capacity pattern in a train schedule, and the effect of capacity pattern can be expressed as minimum spilled demand, minimum train service cost, and maximum train revenue or profit.
There are two methodologies to increase transport capacity of railway. The one is to invest railroad equipment or vehicles, and the other to improve operation efficiency through operation optimization. All of these is intended to increase transport capacity by improving line capacity. So far, we treat line capacity as the criteria for evaluating investment alternatives or for restricting train frequencies, and this criteria is calculated statical and experimental numerical formula. But, line capacity has special attribute that change dynamically according to operational condition, so there is a need of new line capacity estimation system. The Purpose of this paper is to present a new line capacity estimation system based on the probability simulation and its applications.