논문 : 배당의 미래이익 예측력과 외국인투자자

강태구 ( Tae Goo Kang ),이창우 ( Chang Woo Lee ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2013 금융지식연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 외국인 투자자들의 지분율에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지 검증하였다. 일반적으로 배당지급은 기업의 미래이익을 예측하는 데 유용한 정보로 여겨지고 있으나, 이에 대한 실증연구결과들은 혼재되어 있다. 또한 배당의사결정과 관련된 연구들은 투자자들의 배당선호현상에 따라 기업의 배당의사결정이 영향을 받고 있음을 제시하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정에 외국인투자자가 미치는 영향이 매우 높게 나타나고 있다. 이는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구가 높은 경우, 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래이익에 대한 사적정보의 전달수단이기 보다는 단기적으로 배당에 대한 투자자들의 요구를 반영한 결과로 나타날 수 있음을 보여준다. 나아가 이러한 배당의사결정은 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 낮게 만들 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 재검증하고, 나아가 외국인지분율에 따라 배당의 미래이익예측력이 달라지는지 검증하였다. 먼저, 배당의 미래이익 예측연구들은 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 평균회귀(mean reverting)현상과 배당증가 또는 배당감소가 이익변화에 미치는 비대칭적 영향을 고려하고 있으나, 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 변수들을 통제하지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 선행연구에서 제시되고 있는 기업규모(SIZE), 성장성(SGR), 부채비율(LEV), 그리고 연도더미를 추가하여, 이를 통제하고 난 후에도 배당의 미래이익예측력이 여전히 존재하는지 검증하였다. 둘째, 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 기업의 배당의사결정에 영향을 미치는 특정집단에 의하여 달라지는지 검증하였다. 2000년부터 2007년까지 배당지급을 한 6,720 기업-년 표본을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기본 모형뿐만 아니라 여러 통제변수를 포함한 모형에서도 우리나라 기업들의 배당변화는 미래 1년 뒤의 이익변화와 유의한 양의 관계를 나타냈으나, 미래 2년 뒤의 이익변화와는 유의하지 않았다. 또한 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 추가한 모형의 설명력(R2=0.46)이 기본모형의 설명력(R2=0.28)보다 급격히 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 이러한 관계는 외국인지분율을 통제할 경우, 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래전망에 근거하여 이루어지기보다는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구를 반영하는 수단으로 사용되고 있음을 보여준다. 즉 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정이 외국인투자자들의 배당요구를 반영하여 이루어짐을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 대부분의 선행연구들이 외국인투자자와 배당성향간의 동시적인 관계에 대한 결과들을 제시한 반면에, 외국인투자자가 우리나라 기업들의 배당의사결정에 미치는 영향과 함께 배당의 미래이익예측력의 관점에서 살펴보았다는 점에 의의가 있다. This paper investigates whether the dividend payout predicts future earnings and the predictability varies depending on the proportion of investors. Specifically, this paper examines the effect of foreign investors on the relationship between dividend change and the predictability of future earnings in Korean firms. Reasoning from the hypothesis that dividend changes convey new information about a firm`s future profitability, a dividend increase is seen as a positive signal about the firm`s future earnings and profitability. However, the results from prior studies are controversial. Some papers have suggested that dividend changes would mean different things depending on a firm`s dividend policy and the motives behind its managers` decision to pay dividends. In addition, a firm`s governance is considered as one of important factors that affects dividend policy. In the Korean security market, foreign investors owned about 38% of the stock in 2007. As the percentage of foreign ownership had grown, many researchers have analyzed the effect of this ownership on dividend policy. However, prior studies found mixed results and have focused on the association between foreign investors and the level of the dividend or dividend change. They also suggest that predictability of dividend on future earnings is influenced by applied assumption on earnings and other factors like governance as well. We revisit the dividend signaling issue in the light of the catering theory of dividends suggested by Baker and Wurgler (2004). Lintner (1956) argued that managers unwilling to change payout ratio without any important change on the firm`s future performance. Won and Kim (1992) report that managers are more likely to be concerned about the internal factors such as net income, divisible surplus, predicted future performance, and the shareholders` preference for dividend policy. More importantly, several studies suggest that the foreign investors have a significant effect on the Korean market. Park (2004) reports that foreign investors` participation in firms generally pushes up the dividend payments while pulling down investments made in facilities no matter which industry a company is in. Sul and Kim (2006) show that those companies whose majority shareholders are foreign investors tend to pay higher dividends than others whose majority shareholders are domestic investors. In contrast to negative effect of foreign investor, there are empirical studies claiming positive impact of foreign investor in Korean market. Ahn, Shin, and Chang (2005) suggest that foreign investors prefer firms with lower information asymmetry. The study also shows that foreign investors can effectively monitor the management of firm in lessening information asymmetry. Similarly, Park and Lee (2006) suggest that foreign investors` participation in investment of domestic firms can help them make more efficient management decision by improving their corporate governance. Thus, Park and Lee claim that it is problematic to generalize the negative role of foreign investors in the Korean market. Based on this argument, we predict that if foreign investors play an effective monitoring role in a dividend policy, dividend change for firms with higher level of foreign investors is a good indicator in predicting future earnings than for firms with lower level of foreign investors. However, if foreign investors play a negative role in dividend decision process, predictability of dividend decreases. We test this prediction by using the modified model with several control variables that can affect earnings changes. Using 6,720 observations from 1993 to 2007, we find that the dividend change predicts future earnings for next one year relative to the dividend change year. Specifically, the coefficient on RDIV is 0.045 (t=6.85) and this indicates the dividend increases is a good indicator in predicting future earnings. When it comes to model specification, adjusted R2 of modified model is greater than that of the basic model, which means that the modified model is well specified in explaining earnings changes. The result of the effect of foreign investors on predictability of dividend is not significant. This finding implies that managers, on average, decide to pay dividend as a response to demand from foreign investors.

실험적으로 당뇨병을 유발시킨 개에 있어서 혈당량과 Hemoglobin A₁ 농도의 변화의 시간적인 상관관계

이창우,김본원,Lee, Chang-woo,Kim, Bonn-won 대한수의학회 1998 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.38 No.4

Fifteen mongrel dogs (14 male and 1 female) were injected intravenously with 30mg of streptozotocin and 50mg of alloxan monohydrate per kilogram of body weight to induce diabetes mellitus. Before treatment with streptozotocin and alloxan fasting serum glucose concentration was determined every other day or thrice a week (Monday, Wednesday, Friday) for 3 months. Among 15 dogs 4 dogs developed diabetes mellitus and survived more than 9 weeks without injection of insulin. After treatment fasting serum glucose and hemoglobin $A_1$ concentrations of the 4 dogs were determined every other day or thrice a week. Fasting serum glucose concentration increased acutely from 24 hours after treatment and then showed severe fluctuation. Hemoglobin $A_1$ concentration increased gradually until 7~9 weeks after treatment and then showed very slow increase afterwards. Correlation of hemoglobin $A_1$ to fasting glucose concentration was relatively weak(r = 0.10~0.80). Hemoglobin $A_1$ and fasting glucose concentration of preceding 7 week showed very high correlation (r = 0.98~0.99). It was indicated that hemoglobin $A_1$ concentration in chemically induced diabetic dogs reflects mean glucose concentration of preceding 7~9 weeks.

여우에 있어서 돼지 간 급여에 의한 비타민 A 과잉증의 집단발생

이창우,박응복,성재기,권오경,이경갑,정용탄,송본 관,Lee Chang-Woo,Bak Ung-Bok,Sung Jai-Ki,Kweon Oh-Kyeong,Lee Kyoung-Kap,Jung Young-Tane,H. Matsumoto 한국임상수의학회 1991 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.8 No.1

Hypervitaminosis A occurred in about 30% of foxes of five farms in Choongcheongbukdo-province from October 1989 to February 1990. Clinical signs were loss of appetite, retarded growth, lameness. Radiological changes were decreased density of the long bones, especially fibula, and osteophytes developed either on the lateral condyle of humerus or ulnar just below the semilunar notch. Pathological change was the development of exotosis as is evidenced by radiological examination. Pig liver and lung consisted 30∼55% of feeds from March 1989 to February 1990. The serum concentrations of vitamin A in 2 affected foxes were 45,900 and 47,300 IU/d$\ell$ and the concentrations of vitamin A in the liver were 8,760 and 10,842 IU/gm respectively. It is concluded that the high level of vitamin A in the pig liver and the large amount of pig liver in the feed composition are the etiology of the disease.

유전공학 Porcine Somatotropin의 투여가 돼지의 건강에 미치는 영향

이창우,박응복,장병선,김남중,이병권,Lee Chang-Woo,Bak Ung-Bok,Chang Byoung-Sun,Kim Nam-Joong,Lee Byung-Gueon 한국임상수의학회 1992 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.9 No.1

Safety of recombinant porcine somatotropin administration on pig was studied using 32 Landrace x Yorkshire crossbred pigs. The starting body weight ranged from 55.5kg to 65.3kg. Eight pigs were allotted to each low dose group of sustained releasing rPST(SL), high dose group of sustained releasing rPST(SH), daily injection group of rPST(DI), and control group(C). Pigs in SL group and SH group were injected subcutaneously twice in 3 week-interval with 1000$\mu\textrm{g}$ and 2000$\mu\textrm{g}$ of sustained releasing rPST per kg body weight, respectively. Pigs in DI group were injected intramuscularly with 100$\mu\textrm{g}$ of rPST everyday for 6 weeks. Blood was collected from anterior vena cava just before the first treatment, and at four weeks and six weeks of experiment. Hematological parameters and blood chemical parameters indicating liver function, kidney function, electrolyte metabolism, mineral metabolism and lipid metabolism were determined. Necropsy and urinalysis were performed after final blood collection. The results were summarized as follows, and it is concluded that rPST administration does not affect pig health negatively. 1. rPST administration did not affect kidney function as manisfested by BUN, creatinine and urinalysis. 2. rPST administration did not affect liver function as manisfested by total protein, albumin, serum AST activity serum ALT activity serum ALP activity, serum LDH activity, serum GGT activity and serum SDH activity. 3. rPST administration did not affect skeletal muscle, cardiac muscle and brain as manifasted by serum AST activity and serum LDH activity. 4. rPST administration increased blood glucose level within normal range. 5. rPST administration did not affect lipid metabolism as manisfested by triglyceride, cholesterol, and phospholipid concentrati on. 6. rPst administration dia not affect mineral metabolism as manisfested by calcium, phosphorus, magnesium and iron concentration. 7. rPST administration did not affect electrolyte metabolism as manisfested by Na, K, chloride concentration. 8. rPST administration did not affect erythrocyte count, leukocyte count, thrombocyte count, and plasma fibrinogen level.

전자간이 있던 산모에서 분만 5일후 발생한 뇌실질내 출혈 - 증례보고 -

이창우,김용석,박문선,하호균,이종선,정호,김주승,Lee, Chang-Woo,Kim, Yong-Seog,Park, Moon-Sun,Ha, Ho-Guyn,Lee, Jong-Sun,Jung, Ho,Kim, Joo-Seung 대한신경외과학회 2001 Journal of Korean neurosurgical society Vol.30 No.3

Intracranial hemorrhage due to preeclampsia in the postpartum woman is rarely documented. Generally, the incidence of stroke is increased during pregnancy and early postpartum. Preeclampsia is considered a main cause of both nonhemorrhagic and hemorrhagic stroke. We present a 32-year-old woman who had intracranial hemorrhage at 5 days postpartum. At admission, her consciousness was semicomatose with elevated blood pressure. Computerized tomography revealed intracranial hemorrhage on right frontal lobe. Additional angiography did not reveal abnormal vascular lesion. Emergency craniectomy with hematoma removal was done. However, the patient showed no recovery and died 2 weeks later. We conclude that postpartum care of preeclampsia is important to prevent intraparenchymal hemorrhage. Relative high risk of stroke during the postpartum period suggests a causal roles for the large decrease in blood volume or the rapid changes in hormonal status that follow a live birth or stillbirth, perhaps by means of hemodynamics, coagulative, or vessel wall changes.

Serum Protein Values of Racehorse in Korea

이창우,이성엽,이승모,엄영호,Lee Chang-Woo,Lee Sung-Yub,Lee Sung-Mo,Eom Yeong-Ho The Korean Society of Veterinary Clinics 1987 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.4 No.2

임상적으로 건강하고 휴식상태에 있는 한국 경주마의 혈청단백질치를 조사하였다. 총단백질농도는 6.5$\pm$0.3g/100ml(평균$\pm$표준편차)이였다. 알부민 농도는 3.4$\pm$0.2, $\alpha$-글로부린 농도는 0.8$\pm$0.1, $\beta$-글로부린 농도는 1.2$\pm$0.2, ${\gamma}$-글로부린 농도는 1.1$\pm$0.3g/100ml이었으며, A/G 비는 1.15$\pm$0.21이었다. 성, 연령, 계절에 따르는 혈청단백질치의 차이를 통계적으로 분석하여 보고하였다.

황산전해조에서 양극산화에 의한 다공성 알루미나 막의 제조시 첨가제의 영향

이창우,이융,강현섭,장윤호,홍영호,함영민 ( Chang Woo Lee,Yoong Lee,Hyun Seop Kang,Yoon Ho Chang,Young Ho Hong,Yeong Min Hahm ) 한국공업화학회 1998 공업화학 Vol.9 No.7

저압 초음파 분무 공정을 이용한 γ-Fe₂O₃ 나노입자의 합성

이창우,김순길,좌용호,이재성,Lee, Chang-Woo,Kim, Soon-Gil,Choa, Yong-Ho,Lee, Jai-Sung 한국분말야금학회 2007 한국분말재료학회지 (KPMI) Vol.14 No.1

This study was focused on the optimization of low-pressure ultrasonic spraying process for synthesis of pure ${\gamma}-Fe_2O_3$ nanoparticles. As process variables, pressure in the reactor, precursor concentration, and reaction temperature were changed in order to control the chemical and microstructural properties of iron oxide nanoparticles including crystal phase, mean particle size and particle size distribution. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) studies revealed that pure ${\gamma}-Fe_2O_3$ nanoparticles with narrow particle size distribution of 5-15 nm were successfully synthesized from iron pentacarbonyl ($Fe(CO)_{5}$) in hexane under 30 mbar with precursor concentrations of 0.1M and 0.2M, at temperatures over $800^{\circ}C$. Also magnetic properties, coercivity ($H_c$) and saturation magnetization ($M_s$) were reported in terms of the microstructure of particles based on the results from vibration sampling magnetometer (VSM).

백서 복근에 매식된 동결 건조 및 방사선 멸균처리된 동종골의 조직 반응에 관한 실험적 연구

이창우,임창준,이동근,김수남,Lee, Chang-Woo,Yim, Chang-Joon,Lee, Dong-Kuen,Kim, Soo-Nam 대한악안면성형재건외과학회 1991 Maxillofacial Plastic Reconstructive Surgery Vol.13 No.3

In this study, the healing changes of the implanted bone and its surrounding tissues were examined on the histopathologic basis following implantation of the freeze - dried and radiation - sterilized allogeneic bone in Rectus abdominicus of the rat. This study was performed to see the tissue recations after implantation of the freeze - dried and radiation - sterilized allogeneic bone and whether osteogenesis or osteo - induction or osteo - conduction is happened. And the results were as follows : 1. The shape of the implanted allogeneic bone of the 1, 2 - week group specimen was similar to that of normal bone in light - microscopic finding and the atrophy of cellular organells was found in trans - mission electron - microscopic finding. 2. The implanted allogeneic bone was surrounded with the dense fibroconnective tissues, and infiltration of the chronic inflammatory cells gradually became increased. 3. Hyaline degeneration was observed in the surrounding tissue at the 3, 4, 6 - week group specimen. 4. Light - microscopically the resorption of implanted bone became prominent after 4 - week group and the necrosis of allogeneic bone implant became severe with loss of cell components in lacuna. 5. Electron - microscopically, the osteoclast - like cells ere fond after, 2 - week group. It is summarized that the osteo - conduction potential of the bone is remained just after implanting the freeze - dried and radiation - sterilized allogeneic bone on Rectus abdominicus of the rat, but gradually it disappeared with the gradual increse of chronic inflammatory reaction and osteoclastic activity. So it is suggested that the antigenicity of the freeze - dried and radiation - sterilized bone is remained and it has little osteo - conductive activity when it is implanted in the muscle.

표면처리에 의한 Carbon Black 의 표면물성변화

이창우,이창일,홍영호,홍인권,장윤호,함영민 ( Chang Woo Lee,Chang Il Lee,Young Ho Hong,In Kwon Hong,Yun Ho Jang,Yeong Min Hahm ) 한국공업화학회 1996 공업화학 Vol.7 No.4

카본블랙은 일반적으로 보강성, 착색성, 내후성, 내화학성 및 전기적 전도성 등의 다양한 특성을 가지고 있으나 매질과의 친화력이 낮아 이용하는데 어려움을 내포하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 카본블랙의 표면특성을 변화시켜 매질과의 친화력을 향상시키기 위하여 표면에 비교적 많은 기능기를 가지고 있는 channel black은 표면 카르복실기의 수소를 알칼리 금속과 치환하였고, 표면 기능기가 거의 존재하지 않는 furnace black은 질산으로 처리하였다. 이와 같이 표면의 특성을 변화시켜 카본블랙의 물성변화를 측정하고, 수용액 속에서의 분산특성을 연구하여 다음과 같은 결론을 얻을 수 있었다. 표면처리된 channel black의 경우 치환된 금속(Li, Na, K)의 이온반경이 증가함에 따라 입자 표면의 수화도 증가로 인하여 분산성이 향상되었고, 질산처리한 furnace black의 경우 산의 농도 및 반응온도에 비례하여 표면 기능기의 증대를 가져왔으며 반응시간에는 크게 영향을 받지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 또한 전해질 용액에서 pH 변화에 따른 제타전위를 측정한 결과 카본블랙 입자의 표면 전하밀도가 증가하고, 이에 따른 전기적 반발력 증가로 인한 분산성의 향상과 비교적 안정한 계를 이루고 있음을 확인하였다. Carbon Black has various advantageous properties such as reinforcement, tinting, weathering, chemical resistance, electrical resistance, etc., but it has poor affinity in the solution. The purpose of this study is to enhance dispersion in the aqueous solution by altering the surface characteristics. Two different treatments were applied for both channel black and furnace black respectively. Channel black was treated in alkaline solution to replace hydrogen of the carboxyl group with alkaline metal, Li, Na, K. Furnace black has few functional groups, and it was treated with HNO₃to increase the number of functional group on carbon black. It was seen that the substitution of alkaline metal on the surface of channel black enhances the degree of dispersion. Also the higher the acid concentration and reaction temperature, the more the number of some functional groups on the furnace black. Reaction time was not seen to be effective.