가정용수의 수요량 예측을 위한 통계적 모형 비교

명성민,이두진,김화수,조진남,Myoung, Sung-Min,Lee, Doo-Jin,Kim, Hwa-Soo,Jo, Jin-Nam 한국통계학회 2011 응용통계연구 Vol.24 No.4

본 연구는 3년간 가정용수의 실측사용량 자료를 바탕으로 표본가구의 가구특성, 주택특성, 월 특성을 나타내는 항목들을 조사하여 가정 용수 수요예측모형을 개발하는 것이다. 그러나 가정용수 사용량의 분포가 왼쪽으로 치우쳐져 있는 형태를 가지므로 정규분포를 따르지 않는다. 따라서 반응변수가 정규분포를 가정하는 다중회귀모형 적용 시 추정치가 편의 되며, 모형의 설명력이 매우 낮은 결과를 초래한다. 그리고 자료의 대용량화로 인하여 오차분산이 매우 작아지므로 분산분석표에 나타나는 설명변수들의 검정 시 항상 유의하게 나타나는 결과를 초래한다. 이에 대한 대안으로 와이블 회귀모형 및 대수정규 회귀모형을 이용하여 가정 용수 수요량 예측 모형을 통계적으로 분석하고자 한다. 분석결과를 토대로 가정용수의 수요예측, 수요관리 정책수립, 수도 관련 기자재 및 시설 규격결정 등에 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. This study develops a predictive model for household water end-uses based on data that have measured household characteristics, housing characteristics and other items, surveyed over 3 years in Korea. However, the measured data was left-skewed and it was not fitted to normal distribution. The parameter estimate were biased when using a multiple regression model. In addition, the results of the testing for the model were usually of significance due to the tiny residual from a large number of observations. In order to solve the problem, we suggested log-normal regression model and Weibull regression model as alternatives. The results of this study can be utilized in the planning stages of water and waste water facilities.

지방 사립대학교 재학생의 학습몰입과 학업중단과의 관계

명성민(Sung-Min Myoung),이홍기(Hong-Ki Lee) 한국컴퓨터정보학회 2015 韓國컴퓨터情報學會論文誌 Vol.20 No.6

본 연구는 지방대학교에서 학습몰입과 학업중단과의 관계에서 대학생활적응의 매개효과를 탐색하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해 충북소재 대학생 281명을 대상으로 확증적 요인분석, Baron and Kenny 의 3단계 위계적 회귀분석 및 Sobel 검정을 적용하여 학습몰입과 학업중단에 있어 대학생활적응의 매개적 효과를 검증하였다. 분석결과 학습몰입이 높을수록 학업중단이 낮게 나타나며, 대학생활적응의 하위요인들 중 학업적응, 사회적 적응은 학습몰입과 학업중단에 미치는 영향을 부분매개하며, 대학환경적응은 완전매개 하였으며, 개인-정서적응은 매개효과가 존재하지 않았다. 본 연구결과를 바탕으로 대학생의 학습몰입을 높이고 매개변인인 대학생활적응을 증가시켜 학업중단을 낮추기 위한 학교의 지원과 환경이 필요함을 시사한다. The purpose of this study is to find out the mediation effect of college adaption for the relationship between learning flow and university dropout in local university. For this study, 281 university students in Chungbuk region were applied to assess the mediation effect of college adaption for learning flow and university dropout by using confirmatory factor analysis, hierarchical multiple regression of Baron and Kenny, and Sobel test. The results show that more learning flow tended to have more difficultly in university dropout, and it was founded that academic and social adjustment for university adaption(mediator) partially mediated the influence of learning flow (independent variable) on univeristy dropout (dependent variable), institutional adjustment was fully mediated, and personal-emotional adjustment was no mediation effect. Based on the results of this study, we suggest a implication to decrease university dropout through increasing learning flow and university adaption.

세탁기 및 화장실 용수 수요량에 대한 예측모형 연구

명성민(Sung-Min Myoung) 한국정보전자통신기술학회 2019 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지 Vol.12 No.4

본 연구는 5년간의 세탁기 및 화장실 용수의 실측 자료를 기반으로 표본가구의 가구 및 주택, 월 특성들을 나타내는 변수들을 조사하여 위의 두 가지 용수에 대한 수요예측모형을 개발하는 것이다. 그러나 반응변수인 세탁기 및 화장실 용수의 분포를 확인한 결과 양의 왜도, 즉, 왼쪽으로 치우친 형태로 정규분포를 따르지 않기 때문에 다중회귀모형 적용 시 추정치가 편의되는 문제가 있다. 따라서 이에 대한 대안으로 세탁기 및 화장실 용수 수요 예측모형을 와이블 및 대수정규회귀모형으로 가정하고, 3가지 모형을 적용하여 최적모형을 제시하고 이에 대한 해석을 제시하였다. 그 결과 와이블 분포를 가정한 회귀모형이 가장 적합하다고 나타났으며, 이에 대한 각 용수별 예측모형을 제시하고 해석하였다. 그 결과 두 용수 모두 공통적으로 실거주인원이 용수사용에 가장 큰 영향을 주는 인자로 나타났다. 분석결과를 토대로 세탁기 및 화장실 용수의 수요를 예측시 실거주인원에 대한 고려가 필요하다는 점을 시사하며, 예측모형을 통한 관리부서에서 장기적으로 물 수요관리에 대한 정책수립, 수도 관련 시설 규격 및 기자재 결정 등의 기초자료로 활용 할 수 있을 것이라 판단된다. 추후 연구에서는 1인 가구등과 같은 실태를 반영한 독립변수들을 고려한 실측연구 등이 필요할 것이다. This study develops a prediction model for toilet and laundry water end-uses based on surveyed data which measured housing and household characteristics of 140 households over 5 years in Korea. Classical regression model assuming a normal distribution was not appropriate and estimated parameters were biased, because the distribution of measured water-uses was left-skewed. As an alternative to this problem, we considered the distribution of weibull and lognormal for each water-uses, and three regression models were compared using log-likelihood and scale parameter. As a result, weibull regression were chosen to be appropriate for both water-uses and also presented the factors that affect each water-use. This results expect that an insight is provided on water resources utilization and theoretical support role for effective water resource management.

신뢰도 연구에서 급내상관계수와 관련한 표본수 결정 방법 비교

한수연,남정모,명성민,송기준,Han, Soo-Yeon,Nam, Jung-Mo,Myoung, Sung-Min,Song, Ki-Jun 한국통계학회 2010 응용통계연구 Vol.23 No.3

신뢰도 연구는 한 명의 평가자가 연구 대상을 반복 측정하거나 여러 명의 평가자가 한 대상을 평가할 때 평가자 내, 평가자 간 일치도를 알아보는 연구로 임상 의학 분야에서 빈번하게 쓰이고 있다. 이 같은 신뢰도 연구에서 적절한 표본수, 평가자수 및 반복수를 결정하는 것은 비용과 시간 측면에서 보다 더 효율적인 연구를 할 수 있게 해주는 중요한 요인이다. 본 연구의 목적은 신뢰도 연구에서 측정치가 정량적일 때 쓰이는 신뢰도 계수인 급내상관계수(ICC)와 관련한 기존의 표본수 산출 방법들을 비교분석하여 적절한 표본수나 반복수를 결정할 때 그 지침을 제공하는데 있다. 기존 논문에서 제시한 Walter 등 (1998), Giraudeau와 Mary (2001), Saito 등 (2006) 그리고 Bonett (2002)의 방법들을 비교하였다. 임의효과 일원배치 모형일 때 같은 조건에서 가장 적은 양의 정보를 필요로 하는 방법을 찾는 목적으로 요인을 변화시켜 가면서 표본수, 반복수, 신뢰구간 폭을 비교한다. 비교해 본 결과, 가장 작은 수의 표본을 필요로 하는 방법은 Giraudeau의 방법, 가장 작은 수의 반복을 필요로 하는 방법은 Saito의 방법으로 나타났다. 가장 많은 수의 표본과 반복을 필요로 한 방법은 Bonett의 방법이었다. 정도는 Giraudeau의 방법이 가장 높았고 Walter, Saito, Bonett 순으로 정도가 떨어졌다. In medical practice and research, the problem of assessing reliability between two or more quantitative measures is quite common. Intraclass correlation coefficient(ICC) is commonly used to scale of reliability. Some methods were developed to calculate the required number of subjects, raters or replicates in one-way or two-way random ANOVA models. This paper, studies and compares the performance of four methods such as Walter et al. (1998), Giraudeau and Mary (2001), Saito et al. (2006) and Bonett (2002). In order to compare the efficiency of methods we compare the number of subjects, replicates and the width of confidence interval of ICC needed for some specific ICC values. In the case of subject size, Giraudeau's method is the best. In case of the number of replicates, Saito's method was superior to others. The width of confidence interval of ICC was narrower for Giraudeau's method than any others.

성동구내 어린이집 어린이의 알레르기 질환과 허약아의 실태 및 관련성에 대한 보고

박유진,윤지연,명성민,Park, You-Jin,Yoon, Ji-Yeon,Myoung, Sung-Min 대한한방소아과학회 2010 대한한방소아과학회지 Vol.24 No.2

Objectives The purpose of this study is to find the relationships between the allergy and weakness in children in Seong-Dong district. Methods 802 day care centers children were participated for survey on allergic disease, risk factors, and weakness. From the result, we analyzed the relationships between the aforementioned factors. Results 1. 802 children were participated for the survey. We eliminated survey answers with unclear answers, and selected 792 survey sheets as our final subject of study. The age of majority of subjects(720 children) were between one to six years old, and the others were under the age of one and over seven. 2. The prevalence rate of asthma in a lifetime was 6.69%, allergic rhinitis was 14.87%, atopic dermatitis was 28.82%, allergic conjunctivitis was 6.29%, food allergies was 9.58%, and drug allergies was 1.4%. In 2009, the prevalence rate of allergies during treatments is 6.69% for asthma, 13.41% for allergic rhinitis, 13.64% for atopic dermatitis, 4.13% for allergic conjunctivitis, 5.23% for food allergies, 0.96% for drug allergies. 3. The significant risk factors were types of dwelling, pet with fur, dirty environments without vacuum cleaners, the numbers of times bed covers were washed, frequency of air ventilation, changes in body after moving, family history. 4. The distribution of the number of children with weakness within the five visceras were respiratory weakness, digestive weakness, psychoneurologic weakness, neuromotor weakness, and urogenital weakness in the order of most to the least. More specifically, children who only has respiratory weakness were the majority, while children who have respiratory and digestive weaknesses, children who have respiratory, digestive, and psychoneurologic weaknesses, children who have respiratory and psychoneurologic were followed. 5. With the exception of children with urogenital weakness, Most of the children with respiratory weakness, digestive weakness, psychoneurologic weakness, and neuromotor weakness had been treated for allergies in 2009, while children who were diagnosed with allergic diseases at least once in their lifetime most likely had weak respiratory, digestive or psychoneurologic systems. Conclusions The results of this study showed that there was a correlation between children with weak viscera and children with allergic diseases. However, further research would be necessary.

성동구내 어린이집 원아 부모의 소아 한방치료에 대한 인식 및 이용에 관한 조사 연구

박유진,이슬지,윤지연,명성민,Park, You-Jin,Lee, Seul-Ji,Yoon, Ji-Yeon,Myoung, Sung-Min 대한한방소아과학회 2011 대한한방소아과학회지 Vol.25 No.1

Objectives: The purpose of this study is to examine the parental recognition and utilizing patterns of oriental medical care in children who live in Seong-Dong district. Methods 802 day-care center children's parents participated in the survey on recognition and utilizing patterns of oriental medical care, and 702 of the surveys were analyzed. Results: 1. 38.33% has received previous oriental medical treatments and most were received at the children's age under 12-24 months. Majority of the treatments took place in the clinical settings. By recommendation, some also received their treatment at the medical centers. One of the reasons why they receive oriental medical treatments was that they prefer to balance their treatment with the orental medical treatments along with the western's. 2. 53.85% of those who received oriental medical treatments were satisfied with their treatments. The effective treatment results were the major reason for the satisfaction. 3. 49.56% of those who had oriental medical treatments chose specific oriental medical facilities for the children's ailment. Most specific oriental medical facilities were local oriental medical clinics. Reputation fame were the main reason in choosing the clinics. 4. In 2009, 55.26% had received care in the specific oriental medical clinics for the diseases, such as respiratory symptoms, systemic symptoms, gastrointestinal symptoms, skin problems, neurological and psychiatric disease for infants, and respiratory symptoms, gastrointestinal symptoms, systemic symptoms, skin problems, neurological and psychiatric symptoms, urinary symptoms and musculoskeletal symptoms for toddlers. 5. The average duration of herbal treatment were 7-14 days, preferably 4-6 days, and preferred number of medical visits were once a week on Saturdays and preferred day for night cares were on Friday nights. Average treatment fee per treatment was less than 10,000 won which coincided with the preferred treatment fee per visit. 6. The very first medical institutions chosen by parents once their children are ill are the following; Western medical institutions, western medical clinics, pharmacies, oriental medical clinics, health centers, and lastly, oriental medical institutions. The major concerns in receiving oriental medical cares include pesticides in herbs and hazardous substances in heavy metals. Preferred form of oriental medicine was decoction, the negative feedback of oriental medicine was mostly due to the bitter taste of the oriental herbal decoctions. Preferred frequency of intake was twice a day with less than 10cc~20cc per single intake. Conclusions: Taken all together, we conclude that the growing recognition of Oriental Pediatric medicine is needed among parents.

유통산업에서 근로자의 조직후원인식이 직무몰입 및 조직시민행동에 미치는 영향

이홍기(Hong-ki Lee),명성민(Sung-Min Myoung) 한국컴퓨터정보학회 2015 韓國컴퓨터情報學會論文誌 Vol.20 No.1

본 연구는 조직후원의 중요성에 대한 인식을 바탕으로 조직후원인식이 조직시민행동에 미치는 영향과 효과를 규명하는데 주목적을 두고 있다. 현대사회에서 제조업에 대한 인식과 함께 조직후원인식의 비중이 높아지고 있는데, 제조업 이외의 서비스 및 유통산업에서도 조직구성원에 대한 지원 및 복지에 대한 관심을 나타낸다면 조직의 후원을 지각하게 될수록 직무에 몰입을 유발하며, 조직과 동료를 위한 자발적인 헌신과 역할 외 행동인 조직시민행동을 더욱 보이게 되어 직접적인 성과를 드러낼 수 있을 것이다. 따라서 근로자들의 성과를 높이기 위해서는 구성원들을 더 많이 후원하고 도움을 제공하며, 근로자들에게 조직이 지원하고 있다는 사실을 적극적으로 인식시킬 필요가 있다. 본 연구의 결과는 조직후원인식은 성과를 강화할 수 있으며 이를 통해 조직구성원들의 조직시민행동을 유발할 수 있다는 것을 제시한다. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence and effects of perceived organizational support on the organizational citizenship on the basis of perception of the importance of organizational support. In modern society, the perception of perceived organizational support and the manufacturing industry as well have been becoming more important, and, if, besides the manufacturing industry, the interest in the support to and the welfare of the employees could be taken in the service and distribution industries, too, the employees come to realize the organizational support, which causes them to be immersed in their duties and show more organizational citizenship for their organizations and colleagues. Accordingly, in order to enhance the employees’ outcome, the organizations should support their employees and provide help more, letting the employees perceive the support of the organization more actively. Consequently, it can be said that the perceived organizational support is able to strengthen the employees’outcome and motivate the organizational citizenship as well.

Mixture of Expert 모형에 기반한 당뇨병 진단 분류

이홍기(Hong-Ki Lee),명성민(Sung-Min Myoung) 한국컴퓨터정보학회 2014 韓國컴퓨터情報學會論文誌 Vol.19 No.11

당뇨병은 급성합병증을 예방하고 장기간의 합병증의 위험도를 감소하기 위하여 지속적인 치료와 환자 자가 관리교육이 필요한 만성질환이다. 또한 전 세계적으로 당뇨병에 대한 유병률과 사망률이 대부분의 인구집단에서 역학적 비율에 도달하였다. 많은 연구에서 당뇨병에 대한 조기진단은 적절한 치료와 생활습관을 지키는 관리를 통하여 발병을 예방하는데 도움을 줄 수 있으며, 이를 통하여 당뇨병의 합병증을 감소시키고 생존률을 향상시킬 수 있다고 보고하고 있다. 본 연구는 PIMA Indians 당뇨 데이터에 대하여 mixture of expert 모형을 적용하여 당뇨유병환자의 여부를 분류하고, 이를 로지스틱 회귀분석, 신경망분석의 성능과 비교함으로서 그 유용성을 주장하고자 하였다. 연구결과 정확도 및 ROC 곡선, c-통계량에서 ME 모형이 다른 분류도구들에 비해서 높게 나타남을 확인할 수 있었다. Diabetes is a chronic disease that requires continuous medical care and patient-self management education to prevent acute complications and reduce the risk of long-term complications. The worldwide prevalence and incidence of diabetes mellitus are reached epidemic proportions in most populations. Early detection of diabetes could help to prevent its onset by taking appropriate preventive measures and managing lifestyle. The major objective of this research is to develop an automated decision support system for detection of diabetes using mixture of experts model. The performance of the classification algorithms was compared on the Pima Indians diabetes dataset. The result of this study demonstrated that the mixture of expert model achieved diagnostic accuracies were higher than the other automated diagnostic systems.

유아의 기질 및 성격에 따른 어머니의 스트레스 우울 수준의 차이

김지영 ( Ji Young Kim ),이지현 ( Ji Hyun Lee ),성원영 ( Won Young Sung ),명성민 ( Sung Min Myoung ),강형원 ( Hyung Won Kang ),김지훤 ( Ji Hwon Kim ) 대한한방신경정신과학회 2011 동의신경정신과학회지 Vol.22 No.3

Objectives: The purpose of this study was investigated that correlation between The Junior Temperament and Character Inventory (JTCI3-6) and Mother`s Stress Response Inventory(SRI) and Beck Depression Inventory(BDI). Methods: We investigated 48 cases of 3-6 year old infants. Mothers of infants answered that questionnaire about temperament, character of infants and stress, depression of themselves. JTCI3-6 and SRI, BDI were used to get to know that answers. Results: Infants of mothers with high stress levels were lower than infants of mothers with low stress levels in cooperativeness. Infants of mothers with high depression levels were lower than infants of mothers with low depression levels in cooperativeness. Stress of mothers was negative correlated with cooperativeness in temperament of infants. Depression of mothers was negative correlated with cooperativeness in character of infants. Conclusions: Stress and depression of mothers were negative correlated with cooperativeness in character of infants.

교통사고 염좌 환자에서 기질 및 성격에 따른 불안 우울 수준의 차이

김지영 ( Ji Youngkim ),김지훤 ( Ji Hwon Kim ),정시영 ( Si Yeong Jeong ),명성민 ( Sung Min Myoung ) 대한한방신경정신과학회 2010 동의신경정신과학회지 Vol.21 No.4

Objectives: The purpose of this study was investigated that correlation between Temperament and Character Inventory(TCI) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) , State-Trait Anxiety Inventory(STAI) in traffic accident patients. Methods: We investigated 30 cases of traffic accident patients. The patients answered that questionnaire about temperament, character and depression, anxiety. TCI and BDI, STAI were used to get to know that answers. Results: Depression is positive correlated with novelty seeking and harm avoidance in temperament. In character, depression is negative correlated with self directedness, and positive correlated with self-transcendence. Anxiety is positive correlated with harm avoidance in temperament. and negative correlated with self directedness. Conclusions: The results of correlation between TCI and BDI, STAI in traffic accident patients were consistent with previous studies in general person.