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나일용,Na, Il-Yong 한국군사과학기술학회 2013 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.16 No.5
Reliability analysis and prediction of next failure time is critical to sustain weapon systems, concerning scheduled maintenance, spare parts replacement and maintenance interventions, etc. Since 1981, many methodology derived from various probabilistic and statistical theories has been suggested to do that activity. Nowadays, many A.I. tools have been used to support these predictions. Support Vector Regression(SVR) is a nonlinear regression technique extended from support vector machine. SVR can fit data flexibly and it has a wide variety of applications. This paper utilizes SVM and SVR with combining time series to predict the next failure time based on historical failure data. A numerical case using failure data from the military equipment is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. Finally, the proposed approach is proved meaningful to predict next failure point and to estimate instantaneous failure rate and MTBF.
야전 운용자료를 이용한 비 모수 통계 기반의 신뢰도 분석 기법 및 활용 방안 연구
나일용,Na, Il-Yong 한국군사과학기술학회 2010 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.13 No.4
In this paper, we introduced non-parametric statisticals method that could analyse the field data and proposed application ways such as repair-part demand forcasting, MTBF estimation and trend analysis, identity comparison with two populations using the analytical results. In addition, we applied that to real field data which has been collected for about ten years from K series tracked vehicle. After that, we compared the results with those using traditional parametric statistical method, and verified the usability of them.