http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
계절 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 화장수요예측: 수원시를 중심으로
김혁우 ( Hyugwoo Kim ),이필도 ( Phildo Lee ) 한국보건정보통계학회(구 한국보건통계학회) 2017 보건정보통계학회지 Vol.42 No.4
Objectives: Main objective of this study was to estimate crematory facility demand of Suwon city, using Seasonal ARIMA Model. This study aims to estimate the demand based on the number of currently operating crematory facilities, dividing into inward district and outward district of Suwon city. Methods: As the construction of crematory facilities is greatly in need of supply along with the increasing funerals, it requests more accurate estimation of the demand in specific area. This study employed Seasonal ARIMA Model which is useful to deal with time series data with small size and various patterns, instead of the Gompertz curve and logistic curve frequently used in the past. This study did analyses in four steps, discrimination of stationarity (balance for average and dispersion), identification of functions (ACF, PACF), model diagnostic (estimation of parameter), and decision (forecasting of crematory facilities). Results: First, the demand of cremation in inward district of Suwon was estimated to be 4,051 persons in 2017 and to be 5,129 persons in 2022 using the ARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,0)S=12 Model, which is to be increased 31.8 percent points compared to that of 2016. Second, the demand of cremation in outward district of Suwon was estimated to be 6,731 persons in 2017 and 7,060 persons in 2022 using the ARIMA (0,0,3)(1,1,1)S=12 Model. Altogether the users of crematory facilities were estimated to be 10,782 persons in 2017 and 12,189 persons in 2022, which shows increasing trend of 3 to 4 percent points every year. Conclusions: This study proved that Seasonal ARIMA Model is a proper tools to estimate the crematory facility demand in specific area. Demand and supply of crematory facilities should be estimated based on reliable statistics and data. Suwon city should provide more facilities to meet the increasing need of cremation. For this, Suwon city should input more investment for improving of quality of facilities and coordination of the number.
이필도 ( Phi Do Lee ),박복순 ( Bok Soon Park ),김혁우 ( Hyu Gwoo Kim ) 한국보건정보통계학회 (구 한국보건통계학회) 2011 한국보건정보통계학회지 Vol.36 No.2
Objectives: The purpose of this study is to explore how to use the estimation of supply and demand on burial and cremation for planning the long-term strategies of funeral facilities. Methods: This study consists of three directions. First, the population and the number of deaths were estimated, and how to estimate future population and the future number of deaths for potential users was explained. Second, the burial rate and cremation rate were estimated respectively, and how to use the Gompertz curve, to estimate potential users was explained. Third, using the results obtained, in the past, the supply and demand on funeral facilities were estimated. This includes the annual estimation of supply and demand on burial facilities and private enshrinement facilities. Results: The funeral facilities in Gyeonggi-do were analyzed and the types of installation were presented. In this in- depth research, most of all, the space for cemetery is relatively limited in Gyeonggi-do. There are sufficient urn facilities compared with the cemetery facilities in 2008. Conclusions: The solution to reduce inconvenience due to the lack of cemetery facilities needs to be found, and the natural ways to minimize damage and how to install green burial should be considered. The utilization of the Gompertz Curve has proved effective on the estimation of funeral facilities.