논문 : 배당의 미래이익 예측력과 외국인투자자

강태구 ( Tae Goo Kang ),이창우 ( Chang Woo Lee ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2013 금융지식연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 외국인 투자자들의 지분율에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지 검증하였다. 일반적으로 배당지급은 기업의 미래이익을 예측하는 데 유용한 정보로 여겨지고 있으나, 이에 대한 실증연구결과들은 혼재되어 있다. 또한 배당의사결정과 관련된 연구들은 투자자들의 배당선호현상에 따라 기업의 배당의사결정이 영향을 받고 있음을 제시하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정에 외국인투자자가 미치는 영향이 매우 높게 나타나고 있다. 이는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구가 높은 경우, 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래이익에 대한 사적정보의 전달수단이기 보다는 단기적으로 배당에 대한 투자자들의 요구를 반영한 결과로 나타날 수 있음을 보여준다. 나아가 이러한 배당의사결정은 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 낮게 만들 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 재검증하고, 나아가 외국인지분율에 따라 배당의 미래이익예측력이 달라지는지 검증하였다. 먼저, 배당의 미래이익 예측연구들은 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 평균회귀(mean reverting)현상과 배당증가 또는 배당감소가 이익변화에 미치는 비대칭적 영향을 고려하고 있으나, 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 변수들을 통제하지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 선행연구에서 제시되고 있는 기업규모(SIZE), 성장성(SGR), 부채비율(LEV), 그리고 연도더미를 추가하여, 이를 통제하고 난 후에도 배당의 미래이익예측력이 여전히 존재하는지 검증하였다. 둘째, 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 기업의 배당의사결정에 영향을 미치는 특정집단에 의하여 달라지는지 검증하였다. 2000년부터 2007년까지 배당지급을 한 6,720 기업-년 표본을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기본 모형뿐만 아니라 여러 통제변수를 포함한 모형에서도 우리나라 기업들의 배당변화는 미래 1년 뒤의 이익변화와 유의한 양의 관계를 나타냈으나, 미래 2년 뒤의 이익변화와는 유의하지 않았다. 또한 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 추가한 모형의 설명력(R2=0.46)이 기본모형의 설명력(R2=0.28)보다 급격히 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 이러한 관계는 외국인지분율을 통제할 경우, 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래전망에 근거하여 이루어지기보다는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구를 반영하는 수단으로 사용되고 있음을 보여준다. 즉 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정이 외국인투자자들의 배당요구를 반영하여 이루어짐을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 대부분의 선행연구들이 외국인투자자와 배당성향간의 동시적인 관계에 대한 결과들을 제시한 반면에, 외국인투자자가 우리나라 기업들의 배당의사결정에 미치는 영향과 함께 배당의 미래이익예측력의 관점에서 살펴보았다는 점에 의의가 있다. This paper investigates whether the dividend payout predicts future earnings and the predictability varies depending on the proportion of investors. Specifically, this paper examines the effect of foreign investors on the relationship between dividend change and the predictability of future earnings in Korean firms. Reasoning from the hypothesis that dividend changes convey new information about a firm`s future profitability, a dividend increase is seen as a positive signal about the firm`s future earnings and profitability. However, the results from prior studies are controversial. Some papers have suggested that dividend changes would mean different things depending on a firm`s dividend policy and the motives behind its managers` decision to pay dividends. In addition, a firm`s governance is considered as one of important factors that affects dividend policy. In the Korean security market, foreign investors owned about 38% of the stock in 2007. As the percentage of foreign ownership had grown, many researchers have analyzed the effect of this ownership on dividend policy. However, prior studies found mixed results and have focused on the association between foreign investors and the level of the dividend or dividend change. They also suggest that predictability of dividend on future earnings is influenced by applied assumption on earnings and other factors like governance as well. We revisit the dividend signaling issue in the light of the catering theory of dividends suggested by Baker and Wurgler (2004). Lintner (1956) argued that managers unwilling to change payout ratio without any important change on the firm`s future performance. Won and Kim (1992) report that managers are more likely to be concerned about the internal factors such as net income, divisible surplus, predicted future performance, and the shareholders` preference for dividend policy. More importantly, several studies suggest that the foreign investors have a significant effect on the Korean market. Park (2004) reports that foreign investors` participation in firms generally pushes up the dividend payments while pulling down investments made in facilities no matter which industry a company is in. Sul and Kim (2006) show that those companies whose majority shareholders are foreign investors tend to pay higher dividends than others whose majority shareholders are domestic investors. In contrast to negative effect of foreign investor, there are empirical studies claiming positive impact of foreign investor in Korean market. Ahn, Shin, and Chang (2005) suggest that foreign investors prefer firms with lower information asymmetry. The study also shows that foreign investors can effectively monitor the management of firm in lessening information asymmetry. Similarly, Park and Lee (2006) suggest that foreign investors` participation in investment of domestic firms can help them make more efficient management decision by improving their corporate governance. Thus, Park and Lee claim that it is problematic to generalize the negative role of foreign investors in the Korean market. Based on this argument, we predict that if foreign investors play an effective monitoring role in a dividend policy, dividend change for firms with higher level of foreign investors is a good indicator in predicting future earnings than for firms with lower level of foreign investors. However, if foreign investors play a negative role in dividend decision process, predictability of dividend decreases. We test this prediction by using the modified model with several control variables that can affect earnings changes. Using 6,720 observations from 1993 to 2007, we find that the dividend change predicts future earnings for next one year relative to the dividend change year. Specifically, the coefficient on RDIV is 0.045 (t=6.85) and this indicates the dividend increases is a good indicator in predicting future earnings. When it comes to model specification, adjusted R2 of modified model is greater than that of the basic model, which means that the modified model is well specified in explaining earnings changes. The result of the effect of foreign investors on predictability of dividend is not significant. This finding implies that managers, on average, decide to pay dividend as a response to demand from foreign investors.

전자간이 있던 산모에서 분만 5일후 발생한 뇌실질내 출혈 - 증례보고 -

이창우,김용석,박문선,하호균,이종선,정호,김주승,Lee, Chang-Woo,Kim, Yong-Seog,Park, Moon-Sun,Ha, Ho-Guyn,Lee, Jong-Sun,Jung, Ho,Kim, Joo-Seung 대한신경외과학회 2001 Journal of Korean neurosurgical society Vol.30 No.3

Intracranial hemorrhage due to preeclampsia in the postpartum woman is rarely documented. Generally, the incidence of stroke is increased during pregnancy and early postpartum. Preeclampsia is considered a main cause of both nonhemorrhagic and hemorrhagic stroke. We present a 32-year-old woman who had intracranial hemorrhage at 5 days postpartum. At admission, her consciousness was semicomatose with elevated blood pressure. Computerized tomography revealed intracranial hemorrhage on right frontal lobe. Additional angiography did not reveal abnormal vascular lesion. Emergency craniectomy with hematoma removal was done. However, the patient showed no recovery and died 2 weeks later. We conclude that postpartum care of preeclampsia is important to prevent intraparenchymal hemorrhage. Relative high risk of stroke during the postpartum period suggests a causal roles for the large decrease in blood volume or the rapid changes in hormonal status that follow a live birth or stillbirth, perhaps by means of hemodynamics, coagulative, or vessel wall changes.

저출력 레이저 조사가 치은염증에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

이창우,김기석,Lee, Chang Woo,Kim, Ki Suk The Korean Academy of Orofacial Pain and Oral Medi 1987 Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain Vol.12 No.1

레이저의 의학적 이용은 고출력 레이저의 외과적 이용과 더불어 많은 진전을 하게 되었다. 근래에는 인체에 손상을 주는 고출력 레이저 외에도 조직의 파괴없이 인체조직에 유용한 효과를 줄 수 있는 저출력 레이저에 대한 연구가 적극적으로 시도되고 있다. 본 연구는 치은염을 가진 13명의 대상에 대해 Split-mouth design으로 대조군 및 실험군을 설정하여 실험군의 치은에 저출력 레이저(Biotherapy dental Laser 3DL)를 격일로 4회 조사한 후 plaque index, pocket depth, sulcus bleeding index, supragingival과 subgingival plaque의 bacterial morphotype의 비율 및 광학현미경을 통한 조직학적 염증 침윤상을 측정 평가하여 다음과 같은 결과를 얻었다. 1) 레이저 조사후 SBI(p<0.01)는 감소하였으나 PI는 별다른 변화가 없었다. 2) 레이저 조사에 따라 spirochetes(p<0.01)를 포함하여 motiles(p<0.05, p<0.01)은 감소된 반면 nommotiles(p<0.05, p<0.01) 증가하였다. 3) 레이저 조사 치은에서는 염증세포 침윤이 Dental(p<0.05) 및 oral(p<0.01) 양측 모두 감소되었다.

장대도로터널의 자연환기력 예측 사례연구

이창우,김상현,길세원,조우철,Lee, Chang-Woo,Kim, Sang-Hyun,Gil, Se-Won,Cho, Woo-Chul 한국터널지하공간학회 2009 한국터널지하공간학회논문집 Vol.11 No.4

장대터널의 환기 및 방재시스템 설계시 주요한 요소설계인자 중 하나인 자연환기력은 그 중요성에도 불구하고 관련 영향변수들의 상호관계는 정량화가 매우 복잡하여, 자연환기력에 의한 유입 자연풍에 관한 설계기준을 정량적 근거하에서 제시하고 있지 못하다. 최근 발생한 터널화재에 의한 문제 및 터널 이용자에 의한 보다 나은 공기질에 대한 요구 등으로 터널 환기시스템의 최적화가 시급히 필요하며, 따라서 최적화의 주요 설계인자인 자연환기력에 대한 연구가 절실히 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 국내 최장대 도로터널로 계획된 인제터널(연장 10.9 km)을 대상으로 자연환기력의 예측을 목적으로 하였다. 지형적 요인에 의한 외부풍의 풍압에 기인하는 자연환기력의 최대 가능수준을 예측할 수 있는 기압장벽고의 개념을 적용하여 외부풍에 의한 자연환기력을 추정하고 터널내외부 공기 밀도차로 인한 굴뚝효과에 따른 자연환기력을 동시에 분석하였다. One of the key design factors for the ventilation and safety system at extra long tunnel is the airflow velocity induced by the natural ventilation force. Despite of the importance, it has not been widely studied due to the complicated influencing variables and the relationship among them is difficult to quantify. At this moment none of the countries in the world defines its specific value on verified ground. It is also the case in Korea. The recent worldwide disasters by tunnel fires and demands for better air quality inside tunnel by users require the optimization of the tunnel ventilation system. This indicates why the natural ventilation force is necessary to be thoroughly studied. This paper aims at predicting the natural ventilation force at a 11 km-long tunnel which is in the stage of detailed design and will be the longest vehicle tunnel in Korea. The concept of barometric barrier which can provide the maximum possible natural ventilation force generated by the topographic effect on the external wind is applied to estimate the effect of wind pressure and the chimney effect caused by the in and outside temperature difference is also analyzed.

한국인 아급성 피부 홍반성 루푸스의 임상적 고찰

이창우,김정수 ( Chang Woo Lee,Jung Soo Kim ) 대한피부과학회 1997 대한피부과학회지 Vol.35 No.1

Background: The proportion of patients with subacute cutaneous lupus erythematosus(SCLE) is considered to be 10% among the total LE population in western countries. The morphology of LE-specific skin lesions in SCLE : appear as papulosquamous erythema or annular erythema developing mostly on the exposed areas. Among Korean patients with LE the prevalence and the pattern of cutaneous eruption of SCLE may be different from those patients of western countries. Objective : To obtain the prevalence and the morphological characteristics of cutaneous lesions in Korean patients with SCI E v;ere the main objectives. Methods : With 7 cases of SCLE, clinical dermatologic examinations for the character, the distribution, and the clinical course of those cutaneous lesions, and for t,he extent of systemic symptoms and LE-related laboratory abnormalities in each patient were performed. Results/Coeclusion. The prevalence of SCLE among Korean patients with LE or latent LE was much lower than those seen in Caucasians. The pattern of cutaneous lesions were papular/ papulosquamous erythemas with no (or rare) cases of annular erytherna among those patients diagnosed as SCLE. ~Other cl~inica! features were similar to Caucasian patients. It seems that there are some racial differences in the cutaneous manifestat.ions of LE, which may be relevant to the dissimilarities in immunogenetic backgrounds between different racial groups. (Kor J Dermtol 1997;35(1): 90-95)

의과대학 여학생 증가에 따른 수련교육 변화의 필요성

이창우,Lee, Chang-Woo 연세대학교 의과대학 2011 의학교육논단 Vol.13 No.2

Women's educational opportunities have been increasing and women's general advancement in higher education is the underlying factor behind the increasing number of female students in medical school. A number of issues affect female students and residents, including the existence of gender bias and sexual harassment, higher stress levels and lower levels of work satisfaction, the lack of role models in academic medicine, and conflict between work and family roles, including challenges surrounding having children. To what extent female and male medical students and residents make different career and life style choices is also an important issue. The shortage of doctors in surgical departments and maldistribution among specialties are of great concern in the health care system and medicine's future. We must prepare to solve these problems. New medical policies and educational approaches are needed for the future.

Serum Protein Values of Racehorse in Korea

이창우,이성엽,이승모,엄영호,Lee Chang-Woo,Lee Sung-Yub,Lee Sung-Mo,Eom Yeong-Ho The Korean Society of Veterinary Clinics 1987 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.4 No.2

임상적으로 건강하고 휴식상태에 있는 한국 경주마의 혈청단백질치를 조사하였다. 총단백질농도는 6.5$\pm$0.3g/100ml(평균$\pm$표준편차)이였다. 알부민 농도는 3.4$\pm$0.2, $\alpha$-글로부린 농도는 0.8$\pm$0.1, $\beta$-글로부린 농도는 1.2$\pm$0.2, ${\gamma}$-글로부린 농도는 1.1$\pm$0.3g/100ml이었으며, A/G 비는 1.15$\pm$0.21이었다. 성, 연령, 계절에 따르는 혈청단백질치의 차이를 통계적으로 분석하여 보고하였다.

유전공학 Porcine Somatotropin의 투여가 돼지의 건강에 미치는 영향

이창우,박응복,장병선,김남중,이병권,Lee Chang-Woo,Bak Ung-Bok,Chang Byoung-Sun,Kim Nam-Joong,Lee Byung-Gueon 한국임상수의학회 1992 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.9 No.1

Safety of recombinant porcine somatotropin administration on pig was studied using 32 Landrace x Yorkshire crossbred pigs. The starting body weight ranged from 55.5kg to 65.3kg. Eight pigs were allotted to each low dose group of sustained releasing rPST(SL), high dose group of sustained releasing rPST(SH), daily injection group of rPST(DI), and control group(C). Pigs in SL group and SH group were injected subcutaneously twice in 3 week-interval with 1000$\mu\textrm{g}$ and 2000$\mu\textrm{g}$ of sustained releasing rPST per kg body weight, respectively. Pigs in DI group were injected intramuscularly with 100$\mu\textrm{g}$ of rPST everyday for 6 weeks. Blood was collected from anterior vena cava just before the first treatment, and at four weeks and six weeks of experiment. Hematological parameters and blood chemical parameters indicating liver function, kidney function, electrolyte metabolism, mineral metabolism and lipid metabolism were determined. Necropsy and urinalysis were performed after final blood collection. The results were summarized as follows, and it is concluded that rPST administration does not affect pig health negatively. 1. rPST administration did not affect kidney function as manisfested by BUN, creatinine and urinalysis. 2. rPST administration did not affect liver function as manisfested by total protein, albumin, serum AST activity serum ALT activity serum ALP activity, serum LDH activity, serum GGT activity and serum SDH activity. 3. rPST administration did not affect skeletal muscle, cardiac muscle and brain as manifasted by serum AST activity and serum LDH activity. 4. rPST administration increased blood glucose level within normal range. 5. rPST administration did not affect lipid metabolism as manisfested by triglyceride, cholesterol, and phospholipid concentrati on. 6. rPst administration dia not affect mineral metabolism as manisfested by calcium, phosphorus, magnesium and iron concentration. 7. rPST administration did not affect electrolyte metabolism as manisfested by Na, K, chloride concentration. 8. rPST administration did not affect erythrocyte count, leukocyte count, thrombocyte count, and plasma fibrinogen level.

소의 혈청 Ornithine Carbamyltransferase 활성도 측정에 필요한 적합한 조건에 관한 연구

이창우,Lee Chang-Woo 한국임상수의학회 1985 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.2 No.1

The optimal conditions for the evaluation of serum ornithine carbamyltransferase activity, based on the do-termination of citrulline formed during the enzymatic reaction, were investigated and the serum ornithine carbamyltransferase activity of cattle were surveyed. Barbital-acetate buffer(70m moles/L, pH 7.0 at $37^{\circ}C$) were usea for the entire experiment. The results were as follows. 1. When the concentration of $H_2SO_4$ in color reagent exceeds 3.0 m1/100m1 the serum protein precipitated and absorbance increased. 2. The concentrations of antipyrine and diacetylmonoxime required for maximal color formation were 1g/L and 5g/L, respectively. 3. The absorbance was maximal when the reaction mixture was boiled for 25 minutes. 4. The chromogen were stable for at least 60 minutes under loon lighting condition, but decolorized rapidly under direct sunlight. 5. The minimal concentration of urease solution(Sigma Chemical Co., Type III) required for elimination of serum urea was 0, 6mg/ml. 6. When the concentration of L-ornithine solution increased up to 22m moles/L, the ornithine carbamyltransferase activity was not inhibited by zwitterion of ornithine. 7. In accordance with the increase of carbamylphosphate concentration the ornithine carbamyltransferase activity increased and the nonenzymatic citrulline production also increased slightly. 8. The standard curve of citrulline revealed linear pattern within the range of this experiment (0.1~4.0m moles/L). 9. The ornithine carbamyltransferase activities of normal cattle investigated in this laboratory were 6.85$\pm$4.38U/L (mean$\pm$SD) in cows and 2.89$\pm$2.50U/L in bulls. The range of the activities were 0.39~29.12U/L in cows and 0.06~17.34U/L in bulls.

임상유전학 교육에서 새로운 교과과정 개발의 필요성

이창우,Lee, Chang-Woo 연세대학교 의과대학 2014 의학교육논단 Vol.16 No.1

It is becoming increasingly important for medical doctors to have a thorough understanding of human genetics and the ethical, legal, and social implications of genetic testing, counseling, and treatment. As genetic engineering and technology evolves, medical doctors will find themselves called in to counsel patients about a rapidly increasing number of diseases for which genetic testing and treatments are available. Medical doctors will need to master a new set of principles and clinical skills. A lack of knowledge about these issues and problems may lead to serious, lifelong or even fatal negative effects on patients. Medical genetics has moved from the study of rare conditions to the illumination of disorders that impact the entire spectrum of medical practice. This study demonstrates several areas in which medical genetics is clearly an important tool in medical practice and the necessity of establishing new curriculum for clinical genetic education in Korea. Medical students nearing graduation may lack genetic knowledge that is essential for daily practice because genetics has little or no place in clinical teaching. Medical schools should make extensive curriculum changes to increase students' awareness of clinical genetics and its ethical implications. The medical school curriculum will need creative new approaches to keeping up with the rapid pace of evolution of clinical genetics.