http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
- 中文 을 입력하시려면 zhongwen을 입력하시고 space를누르시면됩니다.
- 北京 을 입력하시려면 beijing을 입력하시고 space를 누르시면 됩니다.
RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : 황호선(Hoseon Hwang) (검색결과 2 건)
- 무료
- 기관 내 무료
- 유료
-
황호선(Hoseon Hwang) 동아시아국제정치학회 2013 국제정치연구 Vol.16 No.1
The global imbalance - accumulation of massive current account deficit and consequent growing external debt of the US - is the most serious factor to threaten the stability of the world economy. The persistent current deficit of US, which is dependent upon the inflows of foreign capital, cannot persist indefinitely and the correction of the global imbalance is inevitable sooner or later. Then what effect does the correction of the global economy have on the growth of the US and the world economy? The analysis based on the linked growth model shows that exchange rate adjustment should have only a limited effect on the correction of global imbalance and that the correction of the imbalance should proceed by changes in domestic autonomous demand of the nations involved. The adjustment to the imbalance by changes in autonomous demands tends to have extensive impact on the growth of the nations involved by the effect of foreign linked multiplier. In the international economy, there is an inherent asymmetry in adjustment mechanism of balance-of-payment disequilibrium. Because of this asymmetry, the global imbalance should be corrected by deficit country, which is the US, with deflationary measures. This deflationary adjustment of the US inevitably drags down the growth of the world economy by linked multiplier effect. By contrast, if the relevant nations prevent the working of asymmetric adjustment mechanism and initiate reflationary adjustment by surplus countries to the global imbalance successfully with their policy coordination, the adjustment to the imbalance should lead the world economy to a higher growth, a type of complementary growth. With the global imbalance, a most dangerous risk of the world economy, and the dismal prospect in economic growth ahead, the world faces a most difficult task. It stands on the turning point whether it could proceed to a prosperous complementary economic growth with a successful policy coordination or be dragged to a low and stagnant economic growth with the US deflationary adjustment to the global imbalance.
-
환율이 한·독 무역수지에 미치는 영향: 산업차원의 분석
우타이우프라센 ( Utai Uprasen ),황호선 ( Hoseon Hwang ) 한국세계지역학회 2017 世界地域硏究論叢 Vol.35 No.3
환율의 무역수지에 역할에 대한 지금까지의 연구는 환율변화의 무역수지에 대한 효과에 대해 실증적 결론을 내리지 못하고 있다. 이런 불확실한 실증연구결과의 주된 원인에는 실증연구에서 교역품과 교역국을 함께 모으는 분석방식에서 유래하는 합산편향문제가 있다. 본 연구는 한국과 유럽연합 23개국 가운데 한국의 최대교역국인 독일 간 무역수지에 대한 환율의 영향을 살펴보려 한다. 본 연구에서는 한·독 간 교역에 있어 SITC 3자리 개별산업 수준에서 97상품에 대해 분석을 시도하였으며 ARDL모형을 사용하여 분석하였다. 실증연구는 유로화에 대한 원화의 실질하락은 단기적으로, J곡선 효과보다는, 한국의 대독일 무역수지를 즉각 향상시키는 효과를 나타내고 있다. 장기적으로는 원화의 실질하락이 무역수지에 대한 긍정적 효과는 (97개 산업 중) 23개 산업에서 나타나고 있다. 본 연구의 실증적 결론이 한국의 무역에 대한 정책적 함의는 매우 중요하다. 본 연구의 결과는 환율정책이 여전히 한·독 간 무역수지를 관리하는 주요 정책수단이라는 것을 보여준다. 그러나 12개 산업에서 원화의 실질하락이 단기적으로 무역수지를 악화시키는 J곡선 효과를 나타내고 있는 것으로 볼 때, 환율정책이 매우 조심스럽게 사용되어야 한다는 점을 연구결과는 지적하고 있다. The existing literature pertaining to the role of exchange rate on trade balance exhibits the mixed empirical results. A significant argument for the inconclusive findings is the aggregation bias from clustering of trading products and trading partners in the analysis. This study examines the effect of exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Korea and Germany which is the largest trade partner of Korea among the 28 EU countries. The analysis is conducted at 3-digit level of 97 SITC industries, using annual data between 1971 and 2016 with ARDL model employed in the study. Our findings indicate that a real depreciation of Korean Won (KRW) against Euro (EUR) causes an instant improvement on Korea’s trade balance with Germany in general rather than creating a J-Curve effect in the short run although a J-Curve phenomenon is detected in a few industries. In the long run, a real depreciation of KRW will bring about a positive effect on trade balance in the long run at least in 23 industries which account for 18.57 per cent of Korea’s total trade share with Germany. In addition, the empirical results from the total trade balance support the argument on aggregation bias. The empirical results of our study are crucial for policy implication of Korea. Our findings indicate that exchange rate policy is still a significant tool to manage the trade balance between Korea and German. However it has to be pointed out that the policy needs to be implemented cautiously since a real depreciation will come together with a J-Curve effect in 12 industries which deteriorates the trade balance in the short run.
KCI
DBpia연관 검색어 추천
이 검색어로 많이 본 자료
활용도 높은 자료
