고추, 마늘의 경쟁력제고사업 효과분석

홍승지,김병률 충남대학교 농업과학연구소 2006 농업과학연구 Vol.33 No.1

This study attempts to investigate the possible extent that main spicy vegetables' competitiveness can be improved through various measures. More widely open the agricultural market becomes, more important enhancing the competitiveness of domestic agricultural products is especially in high tariff products such as red-pepper and garlic. Up to date, numerous measures have been applied to those products for enhancing the competitiveness by government, regional agencies, and producer's organizations. However, there is few studies about how much the competitiveness can be improved as a whole from implementing the diverse methods. Following the results, the competitiveness of red-pepper and garlic can be improved up to 70% and 50% respectively by reducing production costs.

2013년 낙농업 전망

홍승지 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 세계농업 Vol.152 No.-

고추의 정부 비축물량 방출이 냉동고추 수입에 미치는 영향

홍승지,장희수,한석호 경상국립대학교 농업생명과학연구원 2020 농업생명과학연구 Vol.54 No.2

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of the government's release of red pepper stock on the import of frozen peppers. The main results of the vector autoregressive model estimation and Granger causality test are as follows. First, The government's release of red pepper stock did not have a significant effect on the suppression of imports of frozen pepper. If the government released 520 tons to the market, imports of frozen peppers decreased by about 440 tons (88 tons calculated as dried peppers). Second, domestic wholesale prices had a one-way causal relationship that affects only the amount of frozen red pepper imports. According to the impulse response function estimates, if the wholesale price rose by 730 won per 600g, the amount of frozen red pepper imports increased by about 440 tons (88 tons calculated as dried red pepper), but even if the amount of frozen red pepper imports increased by 5,100 tons (1,020 tons calculated as dried red pepper), the wholesale price decreased by only 35 won. Third, government release had a certain impact on stabilizing wholesale prices. If the government's release increased by 520 tons at a certain time, wholesale prices fall by about 220 won. Therefore, it could be desirable to operate the pepper’s Tariff Rate Quotas and government’s stock with a focus on domestic price stabilization rather than focusing on import control of pepper-related items such as frozen pepper. 본 연구에서는 정부의 고추 비축물량 방출이 냉동고추 수입에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 분석하고자 하였다. 벡터자기회귀모형 추정과 그랜저 인과성 검정의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 정부 보유물량의 방출이 냉동고추 수입억제에 큰 영향을 미치지 못하고 있다는 점이다. 정부 보유물량을 특정 시점에 520여 톤 시장에 방출할 경우 냉동고추 수입량은 약 440톤 정도(건고추 환산 88톤) 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 국내 도매가격은 냉동고추 수입량에만 영향을 미치는 일방향성 인과관계를 갖는다는 것이다. 충격반응함수 추정결과에 따르면 특정 시점에 도매가격이 730원 정도 상승하면 냉동고추 수입량은 약 440여 톤(건고추 환산 88톤) 증가하지만, 냉동고추의 수입량이 5,100여 톤(건고추 환산 1,020톤) 증가하더라도 국내 도매가격은 35원 감소하는 데 그치고 있다. 셋째, 정부 방출물량은 국내 도매가격의 안정화에 일정 수준 영향을 미치고 있다는 점이다. 특정 시점에 정부 방출물량이 520여 톤 증가하면, 도매가격은 220원 정도 하락하는 것으로 나타났다. 이상과 같은 연구결과를 토대로 볼 때 정부의 국내산 건고추 비축물량과 Tariff Rate Quotas의 운영은 냉동고추 등 고추 관련 품목의 수입억제에 초점을 맞추기보다는 국내 가격안정에 초점을 두고 운영하는 것이 바람직하다고 판단된다.

식품 제조업체의 국산 고추 이용률 영향 요인 분석

홍승지,이을경,김성훈 경상대학교 농업생명과학연구원 2017 농업생명과학연구 Vol.51 No.2

Even though the red pepper is one of the most important seasoning vegetables in Korea, the volume of usage of domestic red pepper has shrunk due to decrease in consumption. Thus, researchers and government officers need to seek for solutions to extend usage of domestic red pepper of food processing industry which consumes considerable amount of it. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors of the usage of domestic red pepper in food processing companies using cross-tabulation analysis and multiple regression model and to find the implications for promoting the usage of domestic red pepper. The results of studies present that specific characteristics of food processing companies affect the usage of domestic red pepper, including size of sales, shape of company, food product processed by company, human organization for purchase of food material, registered trademark, and support of government. This study also suggests that government needs to offer more supporting programs to sauce industry and improve the system of program to promote the usage of domestic red pepper.

The Value of Information on the Optimal Hedging Strategy

홍승지 한국농업경제학회 2010 農業經濟硏究 Vol.51 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relative value of improved information of the mean and volatility of hog prices for making producer-marketing decisions. The producer's decisions are derived in an expected utility maximization framework in which marketing strategies consist of various combinations of futures contracts and put and call options. Based on the results, the value of better information is negative in certainty equivalent terms especially when the producer has only better information about volatility. Therefore, his choice of the optimal strategy under better information can be divergent from the optimal strategy that he might choose under the true information. This result suggests that without both mean and volatility expectations decision maker can be misled to undesirable directions.

고추의 정부 비축물량 방출이 냉동고추 수입에 미치는 영향 분석

홍승지,장희수,한석호 경상대학교 농업생명과학연구원 2020 농업생명과학연구 Vol.54 No.2

본 연구에서는 정부의 고추 비축물량 방출이 냉동고추 수입에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 분석하고자 하였다. 벡터자기회귀모형 추정과 그랜저 인과성 검정의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 정부 보유물량의 방출이 냉동고추 수입억제에 큰 영향을 미치지 못하고 있다는 점이다. 정부 보유물량을 특정 시점에 520여 톤 시장에 방출할 경우 냉동고추 수입량은 약 440톤 정도(건고추 환산 88톤) 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 국내 도매가격은 냉동고추 수입량에만 영향을 미치는 일방향성 인과관계를 갖는다는 것이다. 충격반응함수 추정결과에 따르면 특정 시점에 도매가격이 730원 정도 상승하면 냉동고추 수입량은 약 440여 톤(건고추 환산 88톤) 증가하지만, 냉동고추의 수입량이 5,100여 톤(건고추 환산 1,020톤) 증가하더라도 국내 도매가격은 35원 감소하는 데 그치고 있다. 셋째, 정부 방출물량은 국내 도매가격의 안정화에 일정 수준 영향을 미치고 있다는 점이다. 특정 시점에 정부 방출물량이 520여 톤 증가하면, 도매가격은 220원 정도 하락하는 것으로 나타났다. 이상과 같은 연구결과를 토대로 볼 때 정부의 국내산 건고추 비축물량과 Tariff Rate Quotas의 운영은 냉동고추 등 고추 관련 품목의 수입억제에 초점을 맞추기보다는 국내 가격안정에 초점을 두고 운영하는 것이 바람직하다고 판단된다. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of the government's release of red pepper stock on the imports of frozen pepper. The main results of the vector autoregressive model estimation and Granger causality test are as follows. First, The government's release of red pepper stock did not have a significant effect on the suppression of imports of frozen pepper. If the government released 520 tons to the market, imports of frozen pepper decreased by about 440 tons (88 tons calculated as dried red pepper). Second, domestic wholesale prices had a one-way causal relationship that affects only the amount of frozen red pepper imports. According to the impulse response function estimates, if the wholesale price rose by 730 won per 600g, the amount of frozen red pepper imports increased by about 440 tons (88 tons calculated as dried red pepper), but even if the amount of frozen red pepper imports increased by 5,100 tons (1,020 tons calculated as dried red pepper), the wholesale price decreased by only 35 won. Third, government release had a certain impact on stabilizing wholesale prices. If the government's release increased by 520 tons at a certain time, wholesale prices fall by about 220 won. Therefore, it could be desirable to operate the pepper’s Tariff Rate Quotas and government’s stock with a focus on domestic price stabilization rather than focusing on import control of pepper-related items such as frozen pepper.

양념채소류 TRQ의 최적도입시기에 관한 연구

홍승지,박재홍 한국농업정책학회 2005 농업경영정책연구 Vol.32 No.3

This study attempts to investigate potentially more efficient ways to import strategies about spicy vegetables` TRQ for state trading enterprise. Mainly, this study investigates the optimal import timing by evaluating the importing system currently operated by state trading enterprise. For that, the importing price, domestic price, and storage costs for each product are taking into account. Based on findings, this study suggests alternative importing strategies for state-operated trade on spicy vegetables` TRQ.

6차산업화 제품의 소비자 만족도와 구매의도에 관한 연구

홍승지 한국지역개발학회 2019 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.31 No.5

The purpose of the study is to analyze the satisfaction and purchase intention of the 6th industrialized product users and find implications that can help to increase consumption of the 6th industrialized products. To this end, a survey was conducted on consumers who have purchased the 6th industrialized products, and bivariate probit and seemingly unrelated bivariate probit models were estimated. The results show that the awareness of the importance of agriculture, the subjective knowledge level of the 6th industrialized products, and the safety recognition of the 6th industrialized food are found to have a statistically significant effect on consumers’ satisfaction and purchase intention. The results imply that the promotion and the food safety improvement of the 6th industrialized products should be taken into account for developing the 6th industrialization policies.

세계 담배가공산업 동향

홍승지 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 세계농업 Vol.158 No.-

The development of a duck farm management and marketing standard diagnostic checklist

홍승지,허무열,이철휘 충남대학교 농업과학연구소 2018 Korean Journal of Agricultural Science Vol.45 No.4

This research was done to develop a standard management checklist for duck farmers. To this end, experts in commercial duck farming participated in making a blueprint for a standard management checklist. This expert group consisted of ten members which included the researcher, a professor, an extension advisor and leading farmers in commercial duck farming. By collecting knowledge on commercial duck farming from these experts, a management performance index was made, and checking factors were designated. As a result of this expert survey, management outcome indicators and subdivision evaluation indicators were established. To confirm these results, a first stage Delphi expert survey was carried out. As a result, the experts were not in agreement with the farming scale of 1 - 4 levels and 2 levels in the management outcome indicators. Additionally, the experts were not in agreement on the choice of feed in the feeding management and the cooperative management system as well as the utilization of agricultural information in managing the business. The factors that did not have the same opinion among experts were surveyed by a second Delphi survey asking whether experts approve the requested value. As a result of the second Delphi survey, all factors have an approval rate that have a value of more than 90%. Finally, a standard management checklist was established based on the research result.