[NEW YEAR ESSAY 2024] 홍성열 마리오아울렛 회장 : 불가능한 것을 가능케 한 ‘역발상’

홍성열 중앙일보에스 2024 Forbes Korea = 포브스 코리아 Vol.2024 No.1

해외건설공사 EPC/Turnkey 계약조건 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출 - FIDIC Silver Book 2017년 개정판 기준으로 -

홍성열,제재용,서성철,박형근,Hong, Seong Yeoll,Jei, Jae Yong,Seo, Sung Chul,Park, Hyung Keun 한국건설관리학회 2022 한국건설관리학회 논문집 Vol.23 No.6

Recently, the global construction market is expected to grow at an annual average of 4.8% by 2025 and the risk of overseas construction is also expected to increase accordingly. In particular, domestic construction companies intensively participated in the EPC(Engineering, Procurement, Construction)/Turnkey project, but as a result of failing to respond to contractual risks, they have suffered losses of trillions of won in overseas business since 2013. Nevertheless, there have been not many studies on the derivation of EPC/Turnkey's contractual key risk sub-clauses. Therefore, in this study, the key risk sub-clauses were studied for the conditions of the 2017 Silver Book contract issued by the International Consulting Engineering Federation(FIDIC). To this end, 30 experts with more than 10 years of experience in international construction contracts were formed as a panel to conduct a Delphi survey on 170 sub-clauses of 21 clauses of FIDIC Silver Book to derive 62 main risk sub-clauses. In addition, the RPN(Risk Priority Number) was finally calculated using the FMEA(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) technique, and 25 key risk sub-clauses within the Critical Risk range were derived. Through the results of this study, the practical point of view is able to refer to the contract provisions to be carefully reviewed at the bidding and contract signing stage in overseas construction projects. From an academic point of view, it provides direction and basic knowledge of how to study the contract fields used in overseas construction EPC/Turnkey projects.

수형자와 교정공무원의 심리 역동적 관계

홍성열 한국교정학회 2006 한국교정학회 학술발표회 논문집 Vol.2006 No.6

矯正敎育에서 基礎必修 科目

홍성열 한국교정학회 2009 한국교정학회 학술발표회 논문집 Vol.2009 No.12

범죄의 다양성과 포악성은 많은 사람들의 우려를 낳고 있다. 그래서 재범의 가능성을 갖는수형자의 교육에 관심이 높아 간다. 사람들의 사고와 행동을 수정하기 위한 두 측면은 우리들 스스로 경험해서 얻는 정적 혹은 부적 결과 그리고 의도적으로 계획된 교육프로그램이다. 그리고 그런 교육의 배경에는 성격이론이 포함된다. 성경의 3가지 큰 유목 중에서 현재와 미래에 큰 비중을 두고, 자유의지를 강조하는 Kantian 이론이 수형자의 교육을 위해서 필요하다. 물론 그런 교육 前에 수형자들의 현재 심리적 문제, 수형자와 교정공무원과의 역학관계를 이해하는 것이 요구된다. 그러나 현재 실시되고 있는 교정교육은 그러한 측면을 간과하거나 혹은 외면하고 있다. 본 글은 수형자들이 자신의 문제를 직접 다루고, 스스로 해법을 찾는 교육의 중요성을 강조한다. 또한 수형자와 교정공무원의 역학관계를 이해토록 해서 서로가 어떤 관계 속에 있는지를 알도록 하는 교과목이 교정교육에 포함되기를 바란다. 한편 교육의 효과는 오랜 세월이 지나서 나타나는 경우도 허다하다. 다시 말하면, 정책입안자가 대기 만성적 태도를 가지고 교정교육의 변화를 시도하기를 바라는 것이 본 글의 목적이다. The variety and ruthless of crimes are generating the anxiousness and fearfulness of Korean people, And then the concern of education about prisoners who have possibility of re-crimes is being increased. The two aspects to correct person's thoughts and behaviors are the effects on positive and negative experiences which persons meets in social world and the educational programs which are be intentionally planned. The personality theories under such educational programs are hidden. Among the big categories of personality theories, the Kantian one which stresses the free will of human, and the tense of the present and future is need to be included for the education to prisoners. In addition to such context, the psychological problems as prisoners and the dynamics between prisoner and correctional officials need to be involved on the curriculums of correctional education. However, the existing programs see slightly or have not concern to such points. This paper strongly points the importance of the educations that prisoners deal with their own psychological problems and seek the solutions by own self. Also, the subjects which help an understanding about the dynamics between prisoners and correctional officials expect to be contained on the education. The effects of education to change the thoughts and behaviors of human come very lately and can not be easily visualize comparing with other ones. The policy makers need to remember that points and to try the change on correctional education.

矯正敎育에서 基礎必修 科目

홍성열 한국교정학회 2009 矯正硏究 Vol.- No.45

The variety and ruthless of crimes are generating the anxiousness and fearfulness of Korean people, And then the concern of education about prisoners who have possibility of re-crimes is being increased. The two aspects to correct person's thoughts and behaviors are the effects on positive and negative experiences which persons meets in social world and the educational programs which are be intentionally planned. The personality theories under such educational programs are hidden. Among the big categories of personality theories, the Kantian one which stresses the free will of human, and the tense of the present and future is need to be included for the education to prisoners. In addition to such context, the psychological problems as prisoners and the dynamics between prisoner and correctional officials need to be involved on the curriculums of correctional education. However, the existing programs see slightly or have not concern to such points. This paper strongly points the importance of the educations that prisoners deal with their own psychological problems and seek the solutions by own self. Also, the subjects which help an understanding about the dynamics between prisoners and correctional officials expect to be contained on the education. The effects of education to change the thoughts and behaviors of human come very lately and can not be easily visualize comparing with other ones. The policy makers need to remember that points and to try the change on correctional education. 범죄의 다양성과 포악성은 많은 사람들의 우려를 낳고 있다. 그래서 재범의 가능성을 갖는수형자의 교육에 관심이 높아 간다. 사람들의 사고와 행동을 수정하기 위한 두 측면은 우리들 스스로 경험해서 얻는 정적 혹은 부적 결과 그리고 의도적으로 계획된 교육프로그램이다. 그리고 그런 교육의 배경에는 성격이론이 포함된다. 성경의 3가지 큰 유목 중에서 현재와 미래에 큰 비중을 두고, 자유의지를 강조하는 Kantian 이론이 수형자의 교육을 위해서 필요하다. 물론 그런 교육 前에 수형자들의 현재 심리적 문제, 수형자와 교정공무원과의 역학관계를 이해하는 것이 요구된다. 그러나 현재 실시되고 있는 교정교육은 그러한 측면을 간과하거나 혹은 외면하고 있다. 본 글은 수형자들이 자신의 문제를 직접 다루고, 스스로 해법을 찾는 교육의 중요성을 강조한다. 또한 수형자와 교정공무원의 역학관계를 이해토록 해서 서로가 어떤 관계 속에 있는지를 알도록 하는 교과목이 교정교육에 포함되기를 바란다. 한편 교육의 효과는 오랜 세월이 지나서 나타나는 경우도 허다하다. 다시 말하면, 정책입안자가 대기 만성적 태도를 가지고 교정교육의 변화를 시도하기를 바라는 것이 본 글의 목적이다.

[P-30] 경기도 경안천 어류군집 특징

홍성열,양영헌,김동수 한국수산과학회 양식분과 2011 한국수산과학회 양식분과 학술대회 Vol.2011 No.6

전과자와 범죄의 심각성에 대한 지각1)

홍성열 한국교정학회 2006 矯正硏究 Vol.- No.32

범죄의 심각성 지각이 높으면 전과자에 대한 부정적 태도를 갖게 되고 나아가서 재범율 상승의 원인이 된다. 이런 논리적 사고를 입증하기 위해서 대학생 253명에 대한 집단조사를 2004년 실시하였다. 분석결과를 보면 응답자들은 범죄를 심각하게 생각하고 있었으며, 또한 자신이 범죄 피해자가 되거나, 범죄자가 될 것이라는 응답도 다소 높은 편이었다. 자신에 대해서 그렇게 생각하는 이유는 자신의 의지가 약해서, 험악한 사회적 영향을 배제하기 어려워서 같은 것들이었다. 또한 전과자에 대해서 어떤 특별한 이유 없이 부정적 태도를 나타내었다. 교도행정은 수형자들의 재사회화를 위해서 갖가지 프로그램을 실시하고 있지만, 일반 시민들의 전과자에 대한 부정적 태도를 약화 내지는 소멸시키지 않는 한 모든 노력은 허사가 되고 만다. 그런 이유에서 정부는 일반 사람들이 전과자에 대해서 긍정적 태도를 유도하기 위헌 방안을 모색해야 한다. In the case that the perception for seriousness toward crimes and the attitude toward an ex-convict are very negative, the rate of re-crime will be also increased, For proving such a logical thinking, the group survey was conducted with university students as respondents. The result of analysing data showed that respondents perceived seriously the crimes and had negative attitudes toward ex-convicts. The respondents also thought they would be a sufferer from crimes and a convict in the future, The reasons why they had such thoughts were that they had weak will and then were influenced by the harmfully societal environment. The respondents' attitudes toward ex-convicts were very negative. Such attitudes will hardly make for ex-convict to adopt in society, Accordingly they will be apt to do crime again because of their poor adaptation. The administration of correction is operating a lot of programs for re-socialization of prisoners. However if correctional officers do not get rid of citizen's negative attitudes toward ex-convicts, all of their effort will be worthless. Therefore such the correctional administration has to aim leading the citizens' positively personal relation to the ex-convicts.

FIDIC 표준하도급 계약조건 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출

홍성열,제재용,서성철,박형근 대한토목학회 2022 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.42 No.3

Recently, domestic small and medium-sized subcontractors participating in the overseas construction market are suffering from the continuous loss and damage due to the insufficient recognition of the importance of risk Sub-Clauses among conditions of subcontracts. Therefore, the need to derive risk Sub-Clauses for conditions of the subcontract has been raised, but until now, previous studies havebeen conducted focusing on deriving risk Sub-Clauses for standard conditions of contract for construction between the Employer and the Contractor. In this study, 52 risk Sub-Clauses were derived on the basis of the influence size of the Sub-Clauses through the Delphitechnique targeting 94 Sub-Clauses of conditions of standard subcontract for construction edition 2011, issued by the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC) and In addition, 33 key risk Sub-Clauses were finally derived through the PI Risk Matrixby Probability and Impact. The results of this study provide will useful information on key risk Sub-Clauses that need to be reviewed in advance to minimize contractual risks at the stage of bidding and signing contracts for overseas subcontract construction projects. 최근 해외건설시장에 참여하고 있는 국내 중소하도급업체들은 하도급계약조건 중 리스크 세부조항의 중요성을 인식하지 못하여 지속적인 손해와 피해를 받고 있다. 따라서 하도급계약조건의 리스크 세부조항 도출의 필요성이 제기되었지만, 지금까지 선행연구는 발주자와 시공자간 표준건설계약조건의 리스크 세부조항 도출 위주의 연구만 수행하였다. 본 연구에서는 국제컨설팅엔지니어연맹(FIDIC)에서 발행한 2011년 표준하도급 계약조건 94개 세부조항을 대상으로 델파이기법을 통해서 세부조항의 영향력 크기를 기준으로 52개의 리스크 세부조항을 도출하였다. 또한, 최종적으로 발생도 및 영향도의 PI Risk Matrix를 통해서 33개의 핵심 리스크 세부조항을 도출하였다. 이러한 본 연구결과는 해외 하도급 건설공사 입찰 및 계약 체결 단계에서 계약적 리스크 최소화를 위해서 선행 검토가 필요한 핵심 리스크 세부조항에 대한 유용한 정보를 제공 할 것이다.

부부 영화관 : 헌신발과 함께 본 사랑영화, "2046"

홍성열 한국해사문제연구소 2004 (月刊)海洋韓國 Vol.2004 No.11

가족계획 우수.부진지역 사례연구

홍성열,김태일 한국인구학회 1981 한국인구학 Vol.4 No.1

This study was conducted to compare the characteristics of high performane areas for family planning with that of low performance areas and to find factors which strongly affected contraceptive practice behavior. For the study, eight areas were selected from 274 rural family planning canvassing areas of Korean Population Policy and Program Evaluation Study, which was an action study operated in all areas of Cheju Island from July 1, 1976 until December 31,1979. As a first step of the action study, Cheju Island was devided up 318 family planning canvasser areas Each area was consisted of 200 households in rural district and 300 households in urhan one Duriog the period of project, each canvassing area had been managed by a female family planning canvasser, selected by director of health center considering several individual conditions needed for family planning activities Basic activities of canvassers were to counsell all the eligihie couples in own charged area about family planning methods and also to distribute contraceptives such as condoms and oral pills. In case couples desire to accept sterilization including vasectomy and tubal-ligation, the canvassers played a linking role connecting potential client with family planning field workers. Canvassng areas shows significant differentce in performance for family planning, nevertheless they are supposed to have almost the same conditions regarding family planning distribution channel. Because the purpose of the Cheju project was to eliminate all the problems that existed in governmental distribution system, that is to remove geographic, economic, cognitive and administrative barriers Accumulated performances of family planning methods accepted by residents in each area were calculated by eligible women aged 14-49. And then canvassing areas were ranked according to performance score. Consequently, 4 areas in extremely high and low family planning performance areas were selected respectively. Major results were obtained by comparing characteristics of high performance area with that of low performance areas, which are as follows: 1. The mean number of living children was about the same both in high and low performance areas for family planning. But respondents' mean age (38.5) in high performance areas was higher than that (37.0) in low performance areas 2. Respondents' perception in the expectant educational level of others' children in high performance areas was higher than that in low performance areas, although respondents educational level, monthly expenditure and ratio of children in high school and above was not different. 3. Ratio of ownerships of TV and newspaper in high performance areas was highen than that in low performance areas 4. The duration of canvasser' charge in high performance areas was longer than that of low performance areas, showing the fact that canvassers didn't move cut in high performance areas 5. In high performance areas, canvassers' houses were relatively located in the center part of the village. And so villagers resided in near distances from the anvasser's house 6. 4H clubs' activities in high performance areas were more active than those in low performance areas Therefore it was assumed that cohesiveness of community in high performance areas were stronger than that in low areas. 7. Canvassers' family planning practice rate was higher than that in low performance areas, and also canvassers' human relationship was more sociable than that of canvassers in low performance areas. 8. Fourteen variables which showed relatively high significance level in $X^2$ and F test were selected as independent variables for stepwise regression analysis. According to the results of regression analysis. five of 14 variables-distributors education level ($R^2$=.4439), duration of distributor's charge ($R^2$=.6166), 4H club activities ($R^2$=.6697), canvasser's contraceptive practice ($R^2$=.7377) and