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홍문현,정상섬 한국지반공학회 2019 한국지반공학회논문집 Vol.35 No.10
This study describes a prediction method for rainfall-induced landslides and subsequently debris flows in a regional scale areas. Special attention is given to the calculation of the propagation of debris flows by considering rainfall infiltration into soil slopes and soil entrainments by debris flows. The proposed method was verified by comparing the analytical results and the measured ones reported by the previous research. As a result, predictions and observations were quite similar in terms of the front position, the velocity, volume and momentum of debris flows. Even when applied to natural mountain slope with complicated terrain, numerical results and observations were similar. At last, the combined analysis of landslides and debris flows were conducted. The landslides prediction showed a predictive rate of about 83%, and the result of the final volume of debris flow showed an error rate of 3%. As a result, the proposed combined method for landslides and debris flows overcomes the problem of separating the landslides analysis and the debris flows simulation. Especially, the proposed method can analyze the effects of rainfall on entrainments by debris flows as well as rainfall-induced landslides and the behavior of debris flows.
선행강우를 고려한 산사태 유발 강우기준(ID curve) 분석
홍문현,김정환,정경자,정상섬 한국지반공학회 2016 한국지반공학회논문집 Vol.32 No.4
This study was conducted to suggest a landslide triggering rainfall threshold (ID curve) for landslide prediction byconsidering the effect of antecedent rainfall. 202 rainfall data including domestic landslide and rainfall records wereused in this study. In order to consider the effect of antecedent rainfall, rainfall data were analyzed by changing InterEvent Time Definition (IETD) and IETD based ID curve were presented by regression analysis. Compared to the findingsof the previous studies, the presented ID curve has a tendency to predict the landslides occurring at a relatively lowrainfall intensity. It is shown that the proposed ID curve is appropriate and realistic for predicting landslides throughthe validation of proposed ID curve using records of landslides in 2014. Based on this analysis, it is found that thelonger IETD, the greater the effect of antecedent rainfall, and the steeper the gradient of ID curve. It is also foundthat the rainfall threshold (intensity) is higher for the short period rainfall and lower for the long period rainfall.