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- 저자 : 허준영 ( Joonyoung Hur ) (검색결과 3 건)
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허준영 ( Joonyoung Hur ),박철범(논평),우진희(논평) 한국금융연구원 2021 한국경제의 분석 Vol.27 No.2
This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts of changes in demographic structure for Korea. To this end, I augment the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Getler (1999) with distorting taxes and fiscal rules responding to the government debt-to-GDP ratio. By incorporating expected demographic changes from 2020 to 2067, this paper attempts to net out their implications for the Korean economy and its fiscal soundness. In doing so, three alternative scenarios are considered which reflect potential changes in the macroeconomic environment or policy responses to the demographic shift: (1) alternative productivities; (2) delayed retirement ages; and (3) changes in the fiscal authority's policy preference between promoting macroeconomic performance and stabilizing government debt. The main empirical results are as follows. First, productivity enhancement has a positive impact on macroeconomic performance, but a negative impact on the debt-to-GDP ratio. Second, a delayed retirement age tends to reduce the projected debt-to-GDP ratio. Finally, if the fiscal variables respond to the debt-to-GDP ratio more weakly than at present, both the projections for both GDP and the debt-to-GDP ratio are higher than the case without the policy change. This finding indicates a trade-off between economic performance and fiscal soundness. The empirical results also show that the trade-off of policy changes is more pronounced for distorting taxes than for government outlays. An implication of this finding is that the appropriate tool to achieve fiscal soundness hinges critically upon the fiscal authority's preference between promoting economic performance and managing government debt. If the latter objective is preferred, distorting taxes are a better tool to manage the debt-to-GDP ratio. This conclusion, however, is reversed when the former is the main concern of fiscal policy-lowering government debt by retrenchments of government outlays is likely to mitigate the adverse economic effects of the policy.
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대안적 정부지출 변수의 구축을 통한 재정정책의 거시경제 효과 분석
김세훈 ( Se Hun Kim ),허준영 ( Joonyoung Hur ),천소라(논평),김원기(논평) 한국금융연구원 2024 한국경제의 분석 Vol.30 No.3
본고는 재정정책의 거시경제효과 시산을 위해 기존에 사용되지 않았던 한국재정정보원이 제공하는 분야별 프로그램 결산 자료를 사용하여 우리나라 정부지출 중 외생적 지출 부분을 식별하였다. 해당 자료를 바탕으로 정부지출을 목적별로 구분한 후, 정부지출 요소 중 경기변동과 관련된 경우와 예측가능성이 높은 부분들을 내생변수로, 그 외의 부분을 외생변수로 정의하여 외생적 정부지출 자료를 구축하였다. 이렇게 구축된 자료를 구조적 벡터자기회귀(Vector Autoregressive, VAR) 모형 중 Proxy VAR 모형을 사용하여 외생적 정부지출 증가의 경기부양 효과를 도출하였다. 분석 결과 1원 외생적 정부지출 증가가 최대 1.05원의 GDP 증대 효과를 나타내는 것으로 추정되었으며, 이는 축차적 VAR 모형을 사용한 우리나라 기존 문헌에서의 정부지출 승수에 비해 약 두 배 정도 큰 값이다. 이러한 결과는 우리나라의 재정지출이 경기부양에 있어서 효과적임에도 그 기능이 상대적으로 과소평가 되어왔을 수 있음을 시사한다. This paper constructs a variable for the exogenous components of government spending in Korea by utilizing sector-specific program accounts provided by the Korea Fiscal Information Service, which have not been previously employed in assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Based on the data, government spending is categorized into three components by purpose: (1) endogenous components driven by contemporaneous macroeconomic fluctuations; (2) highly predictable components; and (3) the remaining components. The exogenous components of government spending are defined as the third category. We integrate the constructed variable into a proxy vector autoregressive (VAR) model to examine the impact of government spending changes on the macroeconomy. We find that an increase in government spending displays a significant expansionary effect in the short run. In particular, our empirical results show that a one-won increase in exogenous government spending is estimated to have a maximum effect of increasing GDP by 1.05 won. This value is approximately twice as large as the multiplier in previous literature for Korea that employed a recursive VAR model. This finding implies that the effectiveness of government spending in boosting the economy in Korea may have been relatively underestimated.
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곽노선 ( Noh-sun Kwark ),허준영 ( Joonyoung Hur ) 한국국제경제학회 2024 국제경제연구 Vol.30 No.4
This study examines the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy transmission channels: the interest rate channel, asset price channel, and lending (credit) channel. Using a Bayesian VAR model, we analyze the impact of a policy rate increase on aggregate output and consumer prices. By blocking each channel, we compare their effects on output and inflation. Results indicate that the channels operate simultaneously and are challenging to separate. However, using historical decomposition and semipartial regression coefficients, we assess the relative importance of each channel. Findings suggest that the lending channel plays a significant role in changes to aggregate output, while the asset price channel influences inflation. Additionally, a comparison of pre- and post-global financial crisis periods reveals that the lending channel is consistently crucial for GDP, whereas its influence on CPI is greater before the crisis. After the crisis, the asset price channel becomes more significant for CPI changes.
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