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박윤호(Park Yun-Ho),김경보(Kim Kyung-Bo),허수영(Her Soo-young),이영미(Lee Young-Mi),허종철(Huh Jong-Chul) 한국태양에너지학회 2010 한국태양에너지학회 논문집 Vol.30 No.6
In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of wind speed and wind direction at different locations in Jeju area using past 10 years observed data and used them in our wind power forecasting model. Generally the strongest hourly wind speeds were observed during daytime(13KST∼15KST) whilst the strongest monthly wind speeds were measured during January and February. The analysis with regards to the available wind speeds for power generation gave percentages of 83%, 67%, 65% and 59% of wind speeds over 4㎧ for the locations Gosan, Sungsan, Jeju site and Seogwipo site, respectively. Consequently the most favorable periods for power generation in Jeju area are in the winter season and generally during daytime. The predicted wind speed from the forecast model was in average lower(0.7㎧) than the observed wind speed and the correlation coefficient was decreasing with longer prediction times (0.84 for 1h, 0.77 for 12h, 0.72 for 24h and 0.67 for 48h). For the 12hour prediction horizon prediction errors were about 22∼23%, increased gradually up to 25∼29% for 48 hoursp redictions.