북한의 사회·경제구조와 현황

최수영 한국전략문제연구소 1996 전략연구 Vol.3 No.2

North Korea appears to be undergoing considerable changes. In particular, social and economic changes which are unfavorable to North Korea, are noticeable. Due to economic stagnation after the mid-1980s and economic recession in the 1990s, the economy has deteriorated. In addition, this economic crisis incurred a lot of absurdities and deviant activities in the society and economy. Judging from this situation, some reports say that North Korea stands on the brink of collapse and that the collapse is only a matter of time. The North Korean people are suffering from triple difficulties, that is, food, energy and foreign currency shortages. The deep-seated problems of the North Korean economy are the structural dilemma and inefficiency which have been accumulated since the mid-1960s. Breakup of economic relations with other socialist countries is one of the major causes of economic recession in North Korea in the 1990s. Joint venture projects and limited opening policies, such as Rajin-Sonbong Free Economic and Trade Zone, which North Korea tried to avoid the economic stagnation, failed to attain the desired result This also aggravated its economic difficulties. Even the nature gave disasters to North Korea, namely the three bad floods in the summer of 1995. Present structure of the social class in North Korea is a product of the social control policy which sustain the North Korean society. For the past twenty years, the social status of the people has generally improved on the surface. However, considering the privilege of the nucleus class, which actually rules the North Korean society, has remained unchanged. We can realize how difficult and hard it is to rise in social status in North Korea. The North has consolidated a structure which is thoroughly ruled by the nucleus class, more particularly a certain power elite. Even in such a society in North Korea, office workers and professional workers, who are called the "new middle class" or "working intellectuals," grew larger in numbers and improved in their knowledge. The North Korean authorities is worrying that these intellectuals may possibly convert into critics or unstable forces against the North Korean regime. Judging from such an anxiety, we can say that they brought more likelihood that North Korea will change. In addition, real earning differentials between nucleus class and non-nucleus one widened further apart. Even urbanization and improvement in education could possibly exert an undesirable effect on North Korea because it has been a strictly controlled society. With deteriorating economy, North Korean people cannot live on daily rations provided by the state. Under this serious situation, the people themselves cannot but seek self-help to make up with shortage of daily necessities and low-quality food. In this process, people begin to learn capitalistic means of living, as well as trends of individualism and materialism proliferated. Bribery became daily practice among all the people ranging from common citizen to senior officials. Pilferage and embezzlement are prevalent. Such deviant activities of North Koreans were not limited within domestic problems but extended to breaking away from their regime for exile abroad. Another noticeable phenomenon since the mid-1990s, which is different from the past, is the increasing number of escapees including people in high class. Escapees, who were the North Korean elites before, imply clear evidence that something is wrong with the North Korean regime. Peasants are rarely estranged from their regime because their mobility is restricted more than other classes. Worsening economic difficulties transformed the North Korean socio-economic structure into a dual structure between official and non-official spheres. In addition, non-official one grew larger. Expansion of non-official sphere hinders fulfillment of state's plan, and it subsequently reproduces on an enlarged scale laxity and instability in the North Korean regime. A typical example of non-official sphere relates with the black market and high prices in peasants' market where some trade is allowed. Sufferers from this dual structure consist of common people who are politically, economically and socially inferior. In the past, the biggest complaint of non-nucleus class was disadvantage in politics, but they are now suffering directly from the disadvantage in material side attributed to the dual structure of society and economy. It is, therefore, possible that a conflict could emerge between nucleus class, beneficiaries of the dual structure, and non-nucleus one, the victims of the same structure. Such a class conflict is considered direct factor which will weaken binding and controlling power of the socialist system. Kim Jong-il regime could, therefore, possibly be in an early stage of crisis which is very similar to that of East" European communist countries that collapsed in the late 1980s. We can not, however, conclude at present that this crisis will lead to a collapse of the entire North Korea. In spite of those adverse conditions, the party's control - with militarized measure - is intact. The military is still strong and people are accustomed to hardships. The North Korean regime is, therefore, expected to survive yet under deteriorating and unstable situations.

북한의 지하자원 수출실태 분석과 정책적 시사점

최수영 한국경제연구원 2015 한국경제연구원 정책연구 Vol.2015 No.30

본 보고서에서는 북한의 대중국 지하자원 수출이 감소하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 북한의 대중 지하자원 수출액은 2013년 18.4억 달러로 최대치를 기록했지만, 2014년에 들어 15.2억 달러로 감소했다. 북한의 대중 수출 품목 중 지하자원이 차지하는 비중도 2013년 63.2%에서 2014년 53.7%로 줄었다. 최수영 한경연 초빙연구위원은 “2013년을 기준으로 북한의 대중 수출액은 29.1억 달러였는데 그 중 지하자원 품목의 수출액은 18.4억 달러로 전체 대중 수출의 절반 이상을 차지하고 있다”며, “북한의 총수출 감소현상은 대중 자원수출액 감소가 크게 작용한 결과”라고 주장했다. 최근 2015년 3분기까지도 주력 수출품목인 광물자원의 대중 수출 감소 현상이 이어지고 있다. 보고서는 “북한이 2010년에 들어 플러스 성장을 거둘 수 있었던 것은 풍부한 지하자원과 양질의 노동력을 활용해 중국과의 무역을 확대했기 때문”이라며, “북한의 대중 지하자원 수출 감소가 지속되면 외화확보에 큰 타격을 입을 수 있다”고 주장했다. 2013년 북한의 대중 수출액은 29.1억 달러로 총 수출액 32.1억 달러의 90.5%였으며 2014년 북한의 총 수출액 대비 대중수출액 비중은 89.8%였다. 최 초빙연구위원은 특히 2010년 ‘5·24 조치’ 이후 북한이 남북교역 중단에 따른 경화 수입 감소분을 만회하기 위해 대중국 수출 확대에 집중하면서 북한이 경제운용에 필요한 외화를 확보할 수 있었다고 설명했다. 그는 또 “중국의 자원 수요 증가와 원자재 국제가격 상승이 북한의 대중 지하자원 수출 확대를 견인했는데, 최근 중국의 경제성장률이 하락하면서 자원 수요가 감소하고 환경규제가 강화되는 등 수출 환경이 개선될 여지가 낮은 것으로 보인다”고 설명했다. 보고서는 다만 북한의 총 수출에서 지하자원이 차지하고 있는 비중이 50% 이상을 넘어서고 있기 때문에 여전히 광물자원 수출은 북한의 주된 외화 획득원으로 볼 수 있다고 주장했다. 실제로 개성공단의 북한 노동자에 지급되는 임금은 연간 약 1억 달러인데 반해, 북한의 무연탄 수출액은 연간 10억 달러 이상에 달하는 것으로 나타났다. 최 초빙연구위원은 “북한의 4차 핵실험과 장거리 미사일 발사로 유엔을 통한 강도 높은 대북제재 결의안이 마련되고 있는 가운데, 국제사회의 대북경제제재는 북한의 주된 외화 획득 통로인 대중국 지하자원 수출을 차단할 때 실효성을 높일 수 있다”며, 중국의 대북제제 참여가 시급하게 필요하다고 주장했다.

집단지성을 활용한 폴리매스(Polymath) 활동 사례

최수영,구아현,고호경,Choi, Suyoung,Goo, A-Hyun,Ko, Ho Kyoung 영남수학회 2021 East Asian mathematical journal Vol.37 No.4

Education for the future society should emphasize the experience of sharing, coexisting, and solving problems in cooperation with each other in the community. Accordingly, in addition to the problem-solving capability, which is the ultimate goal of mathematics education, it is necessary to strengthen the capability to solve unstructured problems through collaboration. This study attempted to suggest that solving complex problems through collaboration is used in school classes or gifted education by introducing polymath that solves problems using collective intelligence. Accordingly, a target problem was set and an example of polymath in which community members exert each other's intelligence to solve the problem. In addition, by investigating the perceptions of students who have experienced polymath, positive aspects and improvements of polymath were suggested. Through this, this study can contribute to revitalization of mathematics teaching and learning methods using collective intelligence.

실태조사로 본 주 52시간 근무제 안착을 위한 건설정책 과제

최수영,Choe, Su-Yeong 한국건설관리학회 2019 건설관리 : 한국건설관리학회 학회지 Vol.20 No.1

비중격 만곡증과 부비동의 비정상적 영상 소견: 전산화 단층촬영의 임상적 역할

최수영,전소영,임화성,김성완,민진영 대한비과학회 2021 Journal of rhinology Vol.28 No.1

Background and Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of incidental paranasal sinus (PNS) opacification in nasal septal deviation (NSD) using computed tomography (CT) and to identify contributing factors. Subjects and Method: We analyzed 216 patients who underwent septoplasty for the correction of NSD and who underwent preoperative PNS CT. We assessed the prevalence of incidental PNS opacification in these patients and determined the type of NSD according to Mladina classification. We also evaluated whether the direction of NSD affected the presence of PNS opacification on CT, and whether the presence of PNS opacification was associated with other rhinologic symptoms. Results: Of 216 patients with NSD, 86 showed opacified PNS on CT. According to Mladina classification, NSD patients were classified as type I (24.1%), type II (36.1%), type III (20.8%), type IV (5.6%), type V (9.7%), type VI (2.3%), or type VII (1.4%). Patients with type II NSD showed a significantly higher incidence of PNS opacification compared with other types of NSD (p=0.001). However, the direction of NSD did not significantly influence the presence of incidental PNS opacification. Furthermore, regardless of the presence of PNS opacification, there was no significant difference in rhinologic symptoms such as olfactory dysfunction, among others. Conclusion: We found that incidental PNS opacification on CT was common in NSD patients, especially in patients with type II NSD. Thus, we suggest that CT evaluation of patients with NSD may be helpful for assessing comorbid PNS pathologies as well as objectively identifying nasal septal deformities.

신념화를 위한 정의적 · 위계적 교수 - 학습목표 개발

최수영 국방정신전력원 2015 정신전력연구 Vol.0 No.46

주거공간 가연물의 화재하중 산정방법의 비교연구

최수영,김정용,남동군,김성찬 한국화재소방학회 2013 한국화재소방학회논문지 Vol.27 No.6

As a preliminary study to evaluate the reliability of the calculation method of fire load for residential furniture combustibles,the present study estimates the fire load considering the volume data obtained by the 3D geometrical information of combustibles and material properties based on the literature survey and sample burning test. A kitchen sink cabinet, couch and workstation were investigated for estimating its fire load and real fire test have been performed to measure total energy released from the combustibles. Based on total energy measured from real fire test, the relative error of the estimated fire load due to literature survey and measured material properties showed 6~120% and less than 20%, respectively. It shows that the estimation error of fire load are greatly affected by its material properties as well as geometrical information of combustibles and the present study will be able to contribute to accurate estimation of fire load. 본 연구는 주거공간 내 가연물의 화재하중 산정방법의 신뢰성을 평가하기 위한 연구로서 가연물의 3차원 형상정보를통해 체적을 산정하고 문헌조사와 시편실험을 통해 얻은 가연물의 물성을 적용하여 화재하중을 산정한다. 대상 가연물은주방 싱크대, 가정용 소파, 책상 세트이며 실화재 실험을 통해 가연물에서 방출되는 총열방출량을 측정하였다. 실화재 실험에서 측정된 총열방출량을 기준으로 문헌조사에 기초하여 계산된 화재하중은 6~120% 정도의 상대오차를 보였으나 시편실험에 기초한 화재하중은 20% 이내로 나타났다. 본 연구는 화재하중 평가의 오차가 형상정보뿐만 아니라 가연물의재료 물성에 큰 영향을 받는다는 사실을 보여주고 있으며 이러한 연구를 통해 화재하중 산정기법을 향상시키는데 기여할 수 있다.

통일에 대비한 남북한 에너지 협력방안

최수영,Choe, Su-Yeong 대한석유협회 1996 석유와 에너지 Vol.1996 No.4

후판 절곡 Z형 보의 내부 휨 반경에 따른 연성거동

최수영,최병호,Choi. Su Young,Choi. Byung Ho 한국방재학회 2013 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.13 No.1

구조부재를 절곡해서 제작하면 후판 절단 및 용접 과정을 줄일 수 있어 경제적일 수 있다. 하지만 후판의 절곡 제작기준이나 검토 방안이 명확히 제시되어 있지 않은데다, 변형경화로 인해 연성이 저하되므로 8 mm 이내 판두께 범위에 대해 주로 적용되어 왔다. 국내외 제작기준에서는 냉간 휨가공 시의 절곡내경-판두께비(<TEX>$r_i/t$</TEX>)를 제한하고 있으며, 주로 충격인성에 대해 관련 규준들이 제시되고 있다. 절곡 제작된 부재가 휨부재로써 활용되기 위해서 충분한 휨연성을 확보하는지에 대한 검토가 필요하다. 이에, 본 연구에서는 판두께 24 mm의 SM490후판을 절곡한 Z형 단면 보에 대해 <TEX>$r_i/t$</TEX>에 따른 구조휨연성에 대한 영향을 해석적으로 비교하였다. <TEX>$r_i/t$</TEX>가 15와 5로 절곡한 재료특성을 실험적으로 획득하고 이를 반영한 해석모형을 수립하여 비교연구를 수행하였다. 본 해석모형 절곡 보의 휨강도는 AASHTO LRFD 비탄성 설계기준강도에 도달하는 것으로 해석되었고 <TEX>$r_i/t$</TEX>가 5인 보의 휨연성도는 약 15% 내외 저감되지만 최소 4 이상 확보하며 충분한 수준을 유지하는 것으로 분석되었다. 추후 본 해석적 연구방식의 실용적 활용을 위해서는 실험적 검증에 의한 검교정 과정이 요구된다. Press-braked cross-section beams might be easily fabricated as economic plate structures due to the reduction of cutting and welding process. However, there is not sufficient a proper guide or relevant researches on press-braking fabrication of thick plates. Current fabrication guides and manuals speculate limitation of inside bend radii to thickness ratio (<TEX>$r_i/t$</TEX>) for cold-bending for relatively thin plates. Press-braked beams have to be verified as to a sufficient structural ductility. Thus, the main objective of this study is to provide a relative evaluation of effect of <TEX>$r_i/t$</TEX> on the moment-plastic rotation capacity of press-braked Z-shape beams which are fabricated by using SM490 24mm thick steel plates. Comparative studies are conducted for the press-braked beams with <TEX>$r_i/t$</TEX> values of 5 and 15. Through the finite element analyses, it is found that the press-braked beam model with <TEX>$r_i/t$</TEX> of 5 could attain the plastic moment strength suggested by the AASHTO LRFD and also show the rotational capacity exceeding 4, which means it has a sufficient structural ductility. More experimental studies are required for calibration of the analytical method for practical use.

Polyethylene 삽입물을 이용한 함몰된 비저부와 이상구의 교정

최수영,백인수,박철규,홍인표,이두영 대한미용성형외과학회 2011 Archives of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery Vol.17 No.2

Lower midface concavity due to depressed nasal base and pyriform aperture may be aesthetically displeasing. A relative deficiency in lower midface projection may be congenital or acquired, particularly after cleft surgery and trauma. People with normal occlusion associated with lower midface concavity due to depressed nasal base and pyriform aperture can be corrected with an autologous bone graft or artificial implants. The authors performed paranasal augmentation with an alloplastic implants using a porous polyethylene implants (Medpor ) on 430 patients who had visited authors‘ hospital for aesthetic correction of lower midface contour from January 2000 to June 2009. 425 patients were satisfied with the outcome, which gave them a natural contour. Complications such as dislocation, displacement, infection and extrusion were not observed. Only five patients had their implants removed due to displeasing and foreign body sensations. Alloplastic augmentation in the paranasal area is a very easy procedure and can simulate the visual effect as that of maxillary advancement osteotomy. Paranasal augmentation using a porous polyethylene implants (Medpor ) in patients having lower midface concavity with normal occlusion can contribute to the enhancement of the lower midface contour. (Archives of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery 17: 107, 2011)