GARP 모형과 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 잣나무의 지리적 분포 변화

천정화 ( Jung Hwa Chun ),이창배 ( Chang Bae Lee ),유소민 ( So Min Yoo ) 한국농림기상학회 2015 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.17 No.4

본 연구는 그간 우리나라에서 경제적인 가치를 인정 받아온 수종인 잣나무를 대상으로 잣나무의 현존 분포를 파악하고, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 기후변화 시나리오와 생태적 지위 모형에 기반하여 향후 잣나무의 분포 변화를 예측하기 위해 수행되었다. 이를 위해 5년간의 NFI 자료에서 조사지점별 잣나무의 풍부도 자료를 추출하여 사용하였으며, 수종에 영향을 미치는 환경요인변수를 선정하기 위해 생태적지위 모형 가운데 하나인 GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production)를 이용하였다. 총 27개의 환경요인변수에 대해 각각 모형을 구동하고 컨퓨전 매트릭스(Confusion Matrix) 기반 산출 통계량인 AUC (Area Under Curve)가 0.6 이상인 변수들을 선발하여 최종 잠재분포모형을 작성하였다. 그 결과 작성된 모형은 비교적 높은 적합도를 나타냈는데 잣나무는 현재 표고의 범위가 300m에서 1,200m 사이인 지역 및 남부에서 북부에 이르기까지 넓게 자리 잡고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 작성된 모형에 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 결과, 잣나무는 2020년대부터 잠재분포역이 큰 폭으로 축소되며, 2090년대에는 우리나라 대부분의 지역이 잣나무의 생육에 불리할 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구를 통해 기후변화가 잣나무 분포에 미치는 영향을 파악하고, 잣나무와 기후변화와의 상관성에 대한 이해를 높임으로써 향후 지역별 조림수종 선정 및 경제수종 교체 등의 조림적 관점에서 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. The main purpose of this study is to understand the potential geographic distribution of P. koraiensis, which is known to be one of major economic tree species, based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenarios and current geographic distribution from National Forest Inventory(NFI) data using ecological niche modeling. P. koraiensis abundance data extracted from NFI were utilized to estimate current geographic distribution. Also, GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model, one of the ecological niche models, was applied to estimate potential geographic distribution and to project future changes. Environmental explanatory variables showing Area Under Curve (AUC) value bigger than 0.6 were selected and constructed into the final model by running the model for each of the 27 variables. The results of the model validation which was performed based on confusion matrix statistics, showed quite high suitability. Currently P. koraiensis is distributed widely from 300m to 1,200m in altitude and from south to north as a result of national greening project in 1970s although major populations are found in elevated and northern area. The results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of P. koraiensis and projecting their future changes. Future model for P. koraiensis suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090s showing dramatic habitat loss. Considering the increasing status of atmospheric CO2 and air temperature in Korea, P. koraiensis seems to experience the significant decrease of potential distribution range in the future. The final model in this study may be used to identify climate change impacts on distribution of P. koraiensis in Korea, and a deeper understanding of its correlation may be helpful when planning afforestation strategies.

소나무의 지리적 분포 및 생태적 지위 모형을 이용한 기후변화 영향 예측

천정화 ( Jung Hwa Chun ),이창배 ( Chang Bae Lee ) 한국농림기상학회 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.4

본 연구는 산림에서 나타나는 수종의 분포 패턴을 해석하고 예측하기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. 국내에서 처음으로 시도된 전국 규모의 체계적 산림조사라할 수 있는 NFI (National Forest Inventory)의 수종별 출현 정보와 출현지점별 풍부도를 기반으로 소나무의 현존분포도를 작성하였다. 생태적 지위 모형의 하나인 GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production)를 이용하여 소나무 현존분포와 연관성이 높은 환경요인변수들을 선정하였고, 선정된 변수들을 설명변수로 하는 소나무 잠재분포 모형을 작성한 후 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 미래의 잠재분포를 예측하였다. 기후, 지리·지형, 토양·지질, 토지이용 및 식생현황 등27개 환경요인변수를 각각 설명변수로 하여 모형을 구동함으로써 소나무 현존분포와의 연관성을 평가한 결과 1월 평균기온이 최상위를 차지하였고 연평균기온, 8월평균기온, 연교차 등도 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. NFI 정보로부터 추출하여 소스개체군으로 선정된 조사지점들을 소나무의 최종출현정보로, 환경요인변수 간의 연관성 분석을 통해 최종적으로 선정된 변수 세트를 설명변수로 하여 모형을 구동함으로써 최적의 모형을 선정한 후 잠재분포도를 작성하였다. 현재 시점의 환경요인변수들에 의해 트레이닝 된 잠재분포 모형에서 기후관련변수들을 RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오에서 산출한 변수들로 대체하여 2020년대, 2050년대, 2090년대의 소나무의 예측 잠재분포도를 작성하였다. 최종적으로 작성된 소나무 잠재분포모형의 평가통계량인 AUC (Area Under Curve)는 0.67로 다소미흡하였으나 향후 기후변화 환경 하에서 소나무림의 보전 및 관리를 위한 최소한의 실마리를 제공할 수있을 것으로 판단되었다. We employed the ecological niche modeling framework using GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Pinus densiflora based on environmental predictor variable datasets such as climate data including the RCP 8.5 emission climate change scenario, geographic and topographic characteristics, soil and geological properties, and MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) at 4 km2 resolution. National Forest Inventory (NFI) derived occurrence and abundance records from about 4,000 survey sites across the whole country were used for response variables. The current and future potential geographic distribution of Pinus densiflora, one of the tree species dominating the present Korean forest was modeled and mapped. Future models under RCP 8.5 scenarios for Pinus densiflora suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090 showing range shifts northward and to higher altitudes. Area Under Curve (AUC) values of the modeled result was 0.67. Overall, the results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of major tree species and projecting their future changes. However, there are still many possible limitations and uncertainties arising from the select of the presence-absence data and the environmental predictor variables for model input. Nevertheless, ecological niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of the tree species to climate change. The final models in this study may be used to identify potential distribution of the tree species based on the future climate scenarios, which can help forest managers to decide where to allocate effort in the management of forest ecosystem under climate change in Korea.

임분조사 (林分調査) 자료분석을 위한 컴퓨터 프로그램 ( SIDAS ) 의 개발

신만용,천정화,오정수 ( Man Yong Shin,Jung Hwa Chun,Jung Soo Oh ) 한국산림경제학회 1997 산림경제연구 Vol.5 No.1

백화산 고도별 식물 종풍부도에 대한 기후 및 서식지 인자의 상대적 중요성

이창배 ( Chang-bae Lee ),천정화 ( Jung-hwa Chun ) 한국농림기상학회 2018 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.20 No.3

This study explored the richness patterns of vascular plant species and evaluated the effects of the climatic and habitat variables on the observed patterns along elevational gradients on the Mt. Baekhwa, South Korea. Plant data were recorded from 70 plots and a total of 187 plant species with 78 woody and 109 herbaceous species were recorded along two study transects, the Banyasa and Bohyunsa transects, on the Mt. Baekhwa. A total of 154 plant species with 66 woody and 88 herbaceous species and 131 plant species with 58 woody and 73 herbaceous species were recorded along the Banyasa and Bohyunsa transects, respectively. We used simple ordinary least squares regression model, multi-model inference and variation partitioning to analyze the relative contribution of climatic and habitat variables on the elevational richness patterns. Species richness pattern for vascular plants along the Banyasa transect monotonically decreased with elevation, whereas plant species richness showed reversed hump-shaped pattern along the Bohyunsa transect. Although the elevational patterns of species richness for vascular plants were different between the both transects, habitat variables are more important predictors than climatic variables for the elevational patterns of plant species richness along our study transects on the Mt. Baekhwa. These results indicate that elevational diversity patterns of vascular plants may be different even between nearby elevational transects in a mountain ecosystem but the diversity patterns may be controlled by same drivers.

기후변화가 잣나무의 연륜생장에 미치는 영향 분석

임종환 ( Jong Hwan Lim ),천정화 ( Jung Hwa Chun ),박고은 ( Ko Eun Park ),신만용 ( Man Yong Shin ) 한국임학회 2016 한국산림과학회지 Vol.105 No.3

본 연구는 기후변화가 잣나무의 연륜생장에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 수행하였다. 잣나무의 연도별 생장패턴을 분석하기 위해 제5차 국가산림자원조사에서 수집된 연륜생장 자료를 정리하였다. 기후조건의 유사성에 근거한 군집분석 결과 잣나무 분포지역은 5개의 군집의 분류되었다. 시군별로 정리된 1951년부터 2010년까지 60년 동안의 월별 평균기온과 강수량 자료에 근거하여 각 군집의 연도별 생장도일과 표준강수지수를 산출하였다. 이 정보를 이용하여 기후조건이 생장에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 각 군집에 대한 연도별 온도효과지수와 강수효과지수를 추정하였다. 온도효과지수와 강수효과지수의 곱으로 표현되는 독립변수에 의해 연륜생장을 추정할 수 있는 연륜생장 추정식을 군집별로 개발하였다. 이 추정식을 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5에 적용함으로써 기후변화가 군집별 잣나무의 연륜생장에 미치는 영향을 예측하였다. 본 연구에서 얻어진 결과는 잣나무의 지역별 생장특성의 추정뿐만 아니라 기후변화에 따른 생장패턴의 변화 예측에 필요한 유용한 정보로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. This study was conducted to analyze the effect of climate change on the tree-ring growth of Pinus koraiensis in Korea. Annual tree-ring growth data of P. koraiensis collected by the 5^th National Forest Inventory were first organized to analyze yearly growth patterns of the species. When tree-ring growth data were analyzed through cluster analysis based on similarity of climatic conditions, five clusters were identified. Yearly growing degree days and standard precipitation index based on daily mean temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2010 were calculated by cluster. Using the information, yearly temperature effect index(TEI) and precipitation effect index(PEI) by cluster were estimated to analyze the effect of climatic conditions on the growth of the species. Tree-ring growth estimation equations by cluster were developed by using the product of yearly TEI and PEI as independent variable. The tree-ring growth estimation equations were applied to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for predicting the changes in tree-ring growth by cluster of P. koraiensis from 2011 to 2100. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics of P. koraiensis and for predicting changes in tree-ring growth patterns caused by climate change.

환경요인을 이용한 생태권역별 상수리나무의 적지판정

신만용 ( Man Yong Shin ),천정화 ( Jung Hwa Chun ),김태우 ( Tae U Kim ),권태성 ( Tae Sung Kwon ) 한국산림과학회 2013 한국산림과학회지 Vol.102 No.3

This study was conducted to develop site index equations and to estimate productive areas of Quercus acutissima by ecoprovince in Korea using environmental factors. Using the large data set from both a digital forest site map and a climatic map, a total of 48 environmental factors including 19 climatic variables were regressed on site index to develop site index equations. Four to six environmental factors for Quercus acutissima by ecoprovince were selected as independent variables in the final site index equations. The result showed that the coefficients of determination for site index equations were ranged from 0.30 to 0.41, which seem to be relatively low but good enough for the estimation of forest stand productivity. The site index equations developed in this study were also verified by three evaluation statistics such as the estimation bias of model, precision of model, and mean square error of measurement. According to the evaluation statistics, it was found that the site index equations fitted well to the test data sets with relatively low bias and variation. As a result, it was concluded that the site index equations were well capable of estimating site quality. Based on the site index equations of Quercus acutissima by ecoprovince, the productive areas by ecoprovince were estimated by applying GIS technique to the digital forest site map and climate map. In addition, the distribution of productive areas by ecoprovince was illustrated by using GIS technique.

1분과 : 계방산 장기생태조사지에서 10년간 하층식생구조변화

천광일 ( Kwang Il Cheon ),천정화 ( Jung Hwa Chun ),양희문 ( Hee Mun Yang ),임종환 ( Jong Hwan Lim ),신준환 ( Joon Hwan Shin ) 한국임학회 2014 한국산림과학회지 Vol.103 No.1

본 연구는 계방산 온대북부 낙엽활엽수림에서 하층식생(관목층과 초본층)의 식생조성 변화를 구명하였다. 조사지에 출현하는 식물은 56과 93속 124종 17변종 3품종 2아종 1미분류군으로 총 146분류군이 조사되었으며, 종면적곡선에서 초본층과 관목층의 종수는 시간이 경과함에 따라 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. Mantel-test 분석 결과, 상층의 기저면적은 하층의 변화에 영향을 주는 인자 중 하나로 분석되었다(p < 0.0001). 평균중요치는 관목층에서 생강나무(21.585%), 철쭉(19.774%)이 우점하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 초본층에서는 조릿대(14.082%)와 생강나무(7.921%)가 우점하는 것으로 나타났다. 관목층의 NMS 배열 결과, 높은 연관성을 가지는 종은 시간이 경과함에 따라 감소하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 상층의 기저면적 증가에 따라 반응하는 종이 다른 것으로 분석되었다. 초본층 조사구의 NMS 배열 결과, 관목층의 철쭉과 진달래가 지속적으로 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 그리고 MRPP-test에 대한 식생조성의 변화 결과, 관목층은 5년 그리고 10년에 따른 식생조성의 변화가 유의차가 없는 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만 초본층은 5년 그리고 10년에 따른 식생조성의 변화가 유의성 있게 분석되어, 하층식생 중 초본층의 종조성은 관목층보다 종조성의 변화가 큰 것으로 나타났다. This study was conducted to investigate the changes understory vegetation composition (shrub andherb layers) in Mt. Gyebang as a northern-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest. Tracheophytes were 146 taxa, consisting 56 families, 93 genera, 124 species, 17 varieties, 3 forma, 2 sub-species and 1 unknown taxa in research subject area. As species area curve analysis, herbaceous layer and shrub species have been decreased over time. As a result of Mantel-test, basal area of upper layer affects to understory vegetation change (p<0.0001). Mean importance value was dominated Lindera obtusiloba (21.585%), Rhododendron schlippenbachii (19.774%) in theshrub layer, identified Sasa borealis (14.082%) and Lindera obtusiloba (7.921%) in the herb layer. Accordingto NMS analysis of shrub layer, Species characterized by strong correlation have been reduced as time goes by. And it reports different species as an increasing in basal area of the upper layer. Herb layer plots of the NMS analysis, Rhododendron schlippenbachii and Rhododendron mucronulatum consistently were affected in shrublayer. In consequence of MRPP-test for changes in vegetation composition, It was analyzed that there are nosignificant differences for vegetation composition changes on shrub layer in 5-10 years. As a changes of vegetation composition on herb layer were analyzed significantly, composition change of herb layer species was larger than shrub layer species in understory vegetation.

참나무 시들음병 발생지역의 임분구조에 관한 연구

엄태원 ( Tae Won Um ),천정화 ( Jung Hwa Chun ),김경희 ( Kyung Hee Kim ) 한국환경생태학회 2009 한국환경생태학회지 Vol.23 No.2

참나무시들음병 발생지역의 임분구조 특성 파악을 통한 피해해석을 목적으로, 전라남도와 제주도를 제외한 전국 7개도 18개 참나무시들음병 발생지역을 대상으로 식생조사를 실시하였고(Group A), 아울러 참나무시들음병의 매개층인 광릉긴나무좀 (Platypus koryoensis)에 의한 피해 모니터링을 목적으로 설치된 경기도와 강원도 내 5개 고정조사지에도 식생조사를 실시하였다(Group B). 그 결과 전국 18개 지역(Group A) 가운데 17개 지역에서 참나무속(Quercus spp.) 수종들의 우점도가 가장 높게 나타났으며, 참나무시들음병 피해 모니터링을 목적으로 설치한 5개 고정조사지(Group B)에서는 참나무시들음병 피해 정도를 나타내는 지표 가운데 하나인 천공률(Relative Density of Entrance Holes)과 조사지 내 참나무속 수종들의 상대밀도 간에 통계적으로 매우 유의한 상관관계(R2=0.89, P<0.05)가 인정되어, 임분구조상 참나무속 수종의 우점도는 참나무 시들음병의 발생과 관련성이 높은 것으로 판단되었다. The objective of this study was to understand the relationships between forest vegetation characteristics and the damage of Oak wilt disease. Field surveys were carried out for two groups. One group (Group A) consists of Oak wilt infected 18 sites from 7 provinces, and the other group(Group B) consists of 5 permanent sites where data on the relative density of entrance holes drilled by Platypus koryoensis., the vector of Oak wilt disease, were available. Survey results showed that 17 of 18 sites were dominated by Quercus spp.(Group A) and also showed a significant positive relationship(R2=0.89, P<0.05) between the relative density of entrance holes and the relative density of Quercus spp.(Group B) implying that the susceptibility to Oak wilt disease is related with the high dominance of Quecus spp. in a forest stand.

MaxEnt 모델링을 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 서어나무 (Carpinus laxiflora)와 개서어나무 (C. tschonoskii)의 분포변화 예측

이민기 ( Min-ki Lee ),천정화 ( Jung-hwa Chun ),이창배 ( Chang-bae Lee ) 한국농림기상학회 2021 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.23 No.1

Hornbeams (Carpinus spp.), which are widely distributed in South Korea, are recognized as one of the most abundant species at climax stage in the temperate forests. Although the distribution and vegetation structure of the C. laxiflora community have been reported, little ecological information of C. tschonoskii is available. Little effort was made to examine the distribution shift of these species under the future climate conditions. This study was conducted to predict potential shifts in the distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii in 2050s and 2090s under the two sets of climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the spatial distribution of two species using the occurrence data derived from the 6^th National Forest Inventory data as well as climate and topography data. It was found that the main factors for the distribution of C. laxiflora were elevation, temperature seasonality, and mean annual precipitation. The distribution of C. tschonoskii, was influenced by temperature seasonality, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal rang. It was projected that the total habitat area of the C. laxiflora could increase by 1.05% and 1.11% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the distributional area of C. tschonoskii could expand under the future climate conditions. These results highlighted that the climate change would have considerable impact on the spatial distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii. These also suggested that ecological information derived from climate change impact assessment study can be used to develop proper forest management practices in response to climate change.

Annual Variation of Soil CO₂ Efflux in a Broadleaved Deciduous Forest of the Geumsan (Mt.) Long-Term Ecological Research Site

김춘식,이임균,임종환,박병배,천정화,Kim, Choonsig,Lee, Im Kyun,Lim, Jong Hwan,Park, Byung Bae,Chun, Jung Hwa Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorol 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.3

산림생태계 토양 호흡량은 지구탄소순환에 중요한 역할을 한다. 본 연구는 금산 장기생태 연구 조사지 낙엽활엽수림을 대상으로 4년 동안 토양 이산화탄소 방출량의 연 변동을 조사하였다. 금산 장기생태 연구 조사지 월별 토양 이산화탄소 방출량은 토양온도 변화와 밀접한 관계가 있었으며 토양수분함량과는 뚜렷한 경향을 보이지 않았다(P > 0.05). 동절기(1월과 2월, 2007년의 경우 1월부터 3월)를 제외한 평균 토양 이산화탄소 방출량은 2008년 0.32 g $CO_2\;m^{-2}h^{-1}$, 2009년 0.40g $CO_2\;m^{-2}h^{-1}$, 2007년 0.41g $CO_2\;m^{-2}h^{-1}$, 2010년 0.54 g $CO_2\;m^{-2}h^{-1}$ 순이었으며, 2008년의 연 평균토양온도는 $12.0^{\circ}C$로 다른 연도의 토양 온도 $13.0-13.5^{\circ}C$에 비해 유의적으로(P<0.05) 낮았다. 토양 이산화탄소 방출량과 토양 20cm 깊이의 토양온도는 지수함수 관계가 있었으며 ($R^2$ = 0.31-0.75, P < 0.05), 토양수분함량은 토양 이산화탄소 방출량과 유의적인 관계가 없었다(P > 0.05). 본 연구 결과에 따르면 금산장기생태연구 조사지 토양 이산화탄소 방출량의 연 변동은 토양수분보다는 토양온도 변화와 관계가 있었다. Soil respiration in forest ecosystems play an important role in global carbon cycle. This study was carried out to determine the annual variation of soil $CO_2$ efflux for 4 years in a broadleaved deciduous forest of the Geumsan (Mt.) Long-Term Ecological Research (GLTER) site in Southern Korea. The soil $CO_2$ efflux in the GLTER site showed annual variations with the fluctuations of annual mean soil temperature, but not with those of soil water content. The annual mean soil $CO_2$ efflux except for winter season was 0.32 g $CO_2\;m^{-2}h^{-1}$ for 2008, 0.40 g $CO_2\;m^{-2}h^{-1}$ for 2009, 0.41 g $CO_2\;m^{-2}h^{-1}$ for 2007, and 0.54 g $CO_2\;m^{-2}h^{-1}$ for 2010. The lowest soil $CO_2$ effluxin 2008 was associated with the lowest soil temperature ($2.0^{\circ}C$) in comparison with those of other years ($13.0-13.5^{\circ}C$). The exponential relationships between monthly soil $CO_2$ efflux and the corresponding soil temperature at the soil depth of 20 cm were significant ($R^2$ = 0.31-0.75, P < 0.05). The results indicate that the annual variation of soil $CO_2$ efflux was attributed to the variations of soil temperature rather than soil water content in the GLTER site.