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Economic Policy Uncertainty and Korean Economy : Focusing on Distribution Industry Stock Market
전지홍,이현호,이창민 한국유통과학회 2017 유통과학연구 Vol.15 No.12
Purpose - This study proposes the impact of the US and Korean economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomy, and its effect on Korea. The economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea is used to represent the economic policy uncertainty on Korean economy. Research design, data, and methodology – In this paper, we collect the eight variables to find out the interrelationship among the US and Korean economic policy uncertainty index of the US and macroeconomic indicators during 1990 to 2016, and use Vector Error Correction Model. Result – The distribution industry stock index in Korea is influenced by the economic policy uncertainty index of the US rather than of Korea. All variables are related negatively to the economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea from Vector Error Correction Model. This study shows that the economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea has the dynamic relationships on the Korean economy. Conclusions – A higher economic policy uncertainty shows a greater economy recession of a country. Finally, the economic policy uncertainty of the Korea has an intensive impact on Korea economy. Particularly, the economic policy uncertainty of the US has a strong impact on distribution industry stock market in Korea.
L-THIA를 이용한 서울특별시 유출량 공간적 분석: 2011년 7월 27일 강우를 중심으로
전지홍,Jeon, Ji-Hong 한국농공학회 2011 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.53 No.6
Temporal and spatical surface runoff by heavy rainfall during 25~28 July, 2011 causing urban flooding at Seoul were analyzed using Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA). L-THIA was calibrated for 1988~1997 and validated for 1998~2007 using monthly observed data at Hangangseoul watershed which covers 90 % of Seoul city. As a results of calibration and validation of L-THIA at Hangangseoul watershed, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.99 for calibration and 0.99 for validation. The simulated values were good agreement with observed data and both calibrated and validated levels were "very good" based on calibration criteria. The calibrated curve number (CN) values of residential and other urban area represented 87 % and 93 % of impervious area, respectively, which were maximum percentage of impervious area. As a result of L-THIA application at Seoul city during 25~28 July, 2011, most of rainfall (54 %, 287.49 mm) and surface runoff (65 %, 247.32) were generated at 27 July, 2011 and a significant amount of rainfall and surface runoff were occurred at southeastern Seoul city. As a result of bi-hourly spatial and temporal analysis during 27 July, 2011, surface runoff during 2:00~4:00 and 8:00~10:00 were much higher than those during other times and surface runoff located at Seocho-gu during 6:00~8:00 represented maximum value with maximum rainfall intensity which caused landslide from Umyun mountain.
RCP 시나리오에 따른 지역의 기후변화가 저영향개발 기법 효과에 미치는 영향
전지홍,김태동,최동혁 한국도시환경학회 2018 한국도시환경학회지 Vol.18 No.4
본 연구는 저영향개발(Low Impact Development; LID) 기법을 적용할 때 지역의 기후변화가 LID 저감효과에 미치는영향을 평가함으로써 지역의 특성과 기후변화를 고려한 LID 기법 적용의 필요성을 제시하였다. 강수량과 기준 증발산량이 증가하는 추세를 나타내는 기후변화 시나리오(Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP)를 토대로 기후변화 요소와 LID 효과의 관계를 분석하였다. 대상 지역의 특성을 고려한 단순히 잔디 표면을 낮추어(LID3) 침투와 저류 증대를 도모하는 실용적 기법으로도 식생체류지 설치(LID2)와 이에 옥상녹화를 추가 적용(LID1)하는 일반적인 LID 기법들과 마찬가지로 개발로 인한 수문변화를 개선할 수 있음을 밝혔다. 적용된 기법들은 온실가스 저감이 상당히 실현되는 경우(RCP 4.5) 유출 저감 효과가 높게 나타나 기후변화 대응 정책이 LID 효율에도 영향을 주는 것을 알 수 있었다. 기후변화요소 분석 결과 강수량 변화가 기준 증발산량 변화보다 수문 변화에 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다.
Causal Linkage of Stock Market on Uncertainty Shock in Korea, the US, China and Japan
전지홍 한국자료분석학회 2019 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.21 No.2
We explore the interdependence between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Korea, the US, China and Japan and stock market in each country. In particular, we analyze the causal link using the indexes of EPU and stock indexes of Korea, the US, China and Japan. For empirical analysis, we examine the monthly samples over a period of 1995M1-2017M12 using time series by vector error correction model (VECM) to prove the long-run and short-run dynamic interdependence. The stock indexes in Korea, the US, Japan are influenced by the EPU index of Korea. In the result of the empirical analysis, our research findings are twofold. First, a positive shock of EPU index has significantly a negative coefficient value of the error correction term in each long-run dynamics. Second, each stock index are influenced on the negative impact by EPU index of each country in short-run dynamics. This paper indirectly turns out that it shows the causal linkages between EPU and stock market in Korea, the US, China and Japan by using the EPU index.
L-THIA를 이용한 낙동강수계 임하댐유역 비점오염원의 공간적 분포해석
전지홍,다니엘차,최동혁,김태동,Jeon, Ji-Hong,Cha, Daniel K.,Choi, Donghyuk,Kim, Tae-Dong 한국농공학회 2013 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.55 No.1
Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) model which is a distributed watershed model was applied to analyze the spatial distribution of surface runoff and nonpoint source pollutant loading from Imha watershed during 2001~2010. L-THIA CN Calibration Tool linked with SCE-UA was developed to calibrate surface runoff automatically. Calibration (2001~2005) and validation (2006~2010) of monthly surface runoff were represented as 'very good' model performance showing 0.91 for calibration and 0.89 for validation as Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values. Average annual surface runoff from Imha watershed was 218.4 mm and Banbyun subwatershed was much more than other watersheds due to poor hydrologic condition. Average annual nonpoint source pollutant loading from Imha wateshed were 2,295 ton/year for $BOD_5$, 14,752 ton/year for SS, 358 ton/year for T-N, and 79 ton/year for T-P. Amount of pollutant loading and pollutant loading rates from Banbyun watershed were much higher than other watersheds. As results of analysis of loading rate from grid size ($30m{\times}30m$), most of high 10 % of loading rate were generated from upland. Therefore, major hot spot area to manage nonpoint source pollution in Imha watershed is the combination of upland and Banbyun subwatershed. L-THIA model is easy to use and prepare input file and useful tool to manage nonpoint source pollution at screening level.
Developing Suspended Sediment Delivery Ratio in the Lake Imha Watershed
전지홍,최동혁,김재권,김태동 한국물환경학회 2017 한국물환경학회지 Vol.33 No.6
The sediment delivery ratio (SDR) has been used widely to estimate sediment loads by multiplying soil loss through RUSLE. In this study, the SDR equation was developed for the Lake Imha watershed using soil loss calculated by RUSLE and sediment loads by the calibrated HSPF. The ratio of watershed relief and channel length (Rf/Lch), the ratio of watershed relief and watershed length (Rf/Lb), curve number (CN), area (A), and channel slope (SLPch) demonstrated strong correlations with SDR. SDR equations were developed by a combination of subwatershed parameters by referring to the correlation analysis. The area based power functional SDR developed in this study showed significant errors at the point right after entering major tributaries, because SDR was unrealistically reduced when the watershed area increased significantly. The SLPch-based power functional SDR also showed extraordinary values when the channel slope was gradual. The SDR equation that showed the highest value of the coefficient of determination also presented unrealistic changes in the sediment loads within a relatively short river distance. The SDR equation SDR=0.0003A0.198Rf⁄Lw1.167 was recommended for application to the Lake Imha watershed. Using this equation, sediment loads at the outlet of the Lake Imha watershed were calculated, and the HSPF parameters related to sediment in the uncalibrated subwatersheds were determined by referring to the sediment loads calculated with the SDR equation.
보청A유역 유량 및 영양물질 자동보정을 위한 HSPF-PEST 연계적용
전지홍,최동혁,임경재,김태동,Jeon, Ji-Hong,Choi, Dong-Hyuk,Lim, Kyung-Jae,Kim, Tae-Dong 한국농공학회 2010 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.52 No.5
Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) coupled with PEST which is optimization program was calibrated and validated at Bochung watershed by using monitoring data of water quantities and nutrient loading. Although the calibrated data were limited, model parameters of each land use type were optimized and coefficient of determinations were ranged from 0.94 to 0.99 for runoff, from 0.89 to 1.00 for TN loading, and from 0.92 to 1.00 for TP loading. The optimized hydrological parameters indicated that the forested land could retain rainfall within soil layer with high soil layer depth and infiltration rate compared with other land use type. Hydrological characteristics of paddy rice field are low infiltration rate and coefficient of roughness. The calibrated parameters related to nutrient loading indicated generation of nutrient pollution from agricultural area including upland and paddy rice field higher than other land use type resulting from fertilizer application. Overall PEST program is useful tool to calibrate HSPF automatically without consuming time and efforts.
전지홍,황순진,윤춘경,함종화,김호일 한국농공학회 2002 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.44 No.3
Monitoring data from agricultural reservoirs throughout the country were analyzed to evaluate the limiting factor for algal growth and relationships between Chl-a, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN). Total 394 reservoirs ranging from below 500 m3 to over 50 million m3 in storage volume were monitored from 1990 to 2000 with respect to TP, TN, Chl-a, and their annual mean values were used for the analysis. Based on N/P ratio, the dominant limiting factor for algal growth was turned out to be phosphorus in agricultural reservoirs (about 83%). Therefore, the proper managements of phosphorus in the agricultural watershed appear to be crucial to prevent excessive on algal growth. The effects of phosphorus and nitrogen ware most eminent during the summer period. And the effect of nutrients on the algal biomass (Chl-a) development appeared to be greater in smaller the reservoirs than in larger ones. Generally, Chl-a and TP demonstrated a close relationship while that of Chl-a and TN showed less correlationship. Chl-a and chemical oxygen demand (COD) also showed a good relationship. Both ratios of Chl-a / TP and Chl-a / COD relationships were within the range of literature values. Quantitative analysis of TP and COD is relatively convenient compared to that of Chl-a, and the relationship between TP and COD and Chl-a from this study could be used beneficially for water quality management of agricultural reservoirs and related water quality modeling. 본 연구에서는 농업기반공사에서 운영중인 농업용 저수지의 1990-2000년 동안의 수질자료를 이용하여 우리 나라 농업용 저수지의 한계영양물질을 분석하였고. Chl-a와 TP, Chl-a와 TN, Chl-a와 COD와의 회귀분석을 실시하였으며 그 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다.1. 질소와 인의 비율에 따른 농업용 저수지의 조류성장에 대한 영양물질한계인자는 전체 저수지의 83%가 인이었고, 15%가 인이나 질소, 그리고 2%가 질소이어서 우리 나라 농업용 저수지의 영양물질한계인자는 대부분의 경우 인으로 나타났다.2. 계절에 따른 Chl-a와 수질항목간의 상관관계는 여름철에 상관관계가 가장 높았는데, 회귀분석결과 유의 수준 α=0.01에서 Chl-a와 TP는 Log(chl-a)=0.81×Log(TP)+0.11 (R2=0.50), Chl-a와 TN은 Log(chl-a)=0.72×Log(TN)+ 1.18 (R2=0.22), Chl-a와 COD는 Log(chl-a)= 1.54×Log(COD)-0.03 (R2=0.56)를 나타내었다.3. 저수지의 저류용량에 따른 Chl-a와 수질항목간의 상관관계는 일반적으로 저수지의 저류용량이 작을수록 영양물질인 TP와 TN이 조류의 성장에 미치는 영향이 큰 것으로 타나났으며, 저수지의 저류용량이 Chl-a와 COD와의 관계에 미치는 뚜렷한 영향은 나타나지 않았다. 4. 지역별 Chl-a와 수질항목간의 회귀분석결과 Chl-a와 TP, Chl-a와 TN은 충청도에서 각각 Log(chl-a) = 0.65 × Log(TP) + 0.17 R2=0.43, Log(chl-a) = 0.71 × Log(TN) + 1.19 R2= 0.23으로 가장 높은 결정계수를 나타내었으며, Chl-a와 COD는 경기도에서 Log(chl-a) = 1.58 × Log(COD) - 0.03 R2=0.52로써 가장 높은 결정계수를 나타내었다.5. 이상의 결과에 의하면 우리나라 농업용 저수지의 경우 계절이 조류의 성장에 비교적 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 저수지의 저류용량이 클수록 부영양화 관리에 유리하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 Chl-a는 TP와 COD사이에 높은 결정계수를 나타내었으며 이는 수질관리 및 수질예측에서 상대적으로 분석이 용이한 COD나 TP농도에 의해 Chl-a의 농도를 어느 정도 신뢰성 있게 추정할 수 있을 것이며, 이러한 상관관계식들은 농업용 저수지의 수질관리에 유익하게 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.
전지홍,최동혁,김태동 한국도시환경학회 2010 한국도시환경학회지 Vol.10 No.2
수질오염총량제에 있어서 유달율 계산은 매우 중요한 과정이다. 본 연구에서는 산림지역인 길안유역에 있어서 강우시유출량 및 BOD, T-N, T-P에 대하여 HSPF모델을 보정한 후 유출유황곡선과 오염유황곡선, 유달율유황곡선을 작성 하고 유출특성을 고찰하였다. 그 결과, HSPF는 유출량 및 영양물질 부하량을 잘 모의하였으며, 저유량에서는 T-N의 유달율은 BOD, T-P에 비해 상대적으로 높았으나 고유량에서는 BOD, T-P의 유달율은 T-N의 유달율 보다 높게 나타났다. 이는 대부분의 질소는 자연상태에서 용존성의 NOX로 존재하기 평상시 유출이 상대적으로 많이 일어나기 때문이며, 인이나 BOD의 경우에는 강우시 입자상의 유출이 많이 일어나기 때문인 것으로 판단된다. 부하유황곡선 분석결과, 길안유역의 고유량 일때의 TP가 수질오염총량제 목표수질을 초과하는 것으로 나타나 대상유역의 우선관리는 강우시 T-P인 것으로 나타났다.
원유가격 변동이 주가에 미치는 영향 : 산업별 차이를 중심으로
전지홍,이창민,이상림 한국재무학회 2016 한국재무학회 학술대회 Vol.2016 No.05
본 연구는 2000년부터 2015년까지 최근까지의 국제유가 변화가 국내 산업별 주가에 미치는 영향을 국제유가 상승기와 하락기로 비교 분석한 기존 연구들과 차별성이 있는 논문이다. 특히, 국제유가를 상승기(2000년 1월 ~ 2008년 7월)와 하락기(2012년 3월 ~ 2015년 12월)로 구분하여 한국증권거 래소(Korea Stock Exchange)의 국내 KOSPI(Korea Composite Stock Price Index)에 분류된 17 개 산업 중 어떤 업종의 주가 수익률이 가장 민감하게 반응하는지를 보고자 한다. 본 연구의 실증분 석을 위해서 2000년 1월 ~ 2015년 12월까지의 16년 동안의 17개 산업에 대한 월별 주가지수 와 우리나라에서 가장 많이 수입하는 두바이유에 대한 가격을 주요 표본 데이터로 사용하였으며, 국제유 가의 변동이 국내 산업별 주가에 미치는 영향을 알아보고자 VAR(Vector Auto Regressive)모형으로 분석하여 충격반응(Impulse Response)함수와 그랜저 인과관계분석(Granger Causality Test) 등을 보았다. 그 결과, 상승기에는 17개 산업 중에서 철강 및 금속을 비롯한 14개 산업이 유의한 결과를 보였으나, 하락기에는 단지 운수장비를 비롯한 5개 업종만이 유의하게 나왔다. 또한, 국제유가 상승 기와 하락기에 17개 산업 중 전기·전자를 비롯한 5개 업종만이 모두 유의함을 알 수 있었다. 전체 기간 에서는 4개 업종만이 유의함을 알 수 있었으며, 건설업은 상승기, 하락기, 전체 기간 동안 가 장 유의한 업종임을 실증분석으로 검증할 수 있었다. 본 연구를 통해 21세기의 국제유가가 상승기와 하락기에 KOSPI 17개 산업의 주가 수익률에 대해 서 어떠한 영향을 주었는지 알아보았으며, 유가변동에 국내 주요 산업의 주가수익률에 밀접한 영향 을 미친다는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 해당 기업들의 경영 전략수립에 도움이 되었으면 한다. Today it is so significant to pay attention to the oil price and stock market for the future successful profit of domestic companies in Korea. The purpose of this paper is aimed at analyzing the effects between volatility for international oil price and the stock index on the domestic industries in Korea. It is available to use the model empirically for the dubai oil price and the stock index of the Korean industries. Also this paper studies how much impact the oil price to stock index dividing two periods when the international oil prices go up and down on the world in addition to the whole period from January 2000 to December 2015. In this study literature reviews and empirical methods are both used; The literature reviews are covered with theoretical studies on the relationship between the international oil price, stock markets with the election of variables and its examination in the previous studies. Based on these theories, a model which explains the relationship between stock price indexes by Korean industries and KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index), as a dependant variable and the independent variables which is proposed as the oil prices, the Time-Varying Volatility of oil prices, the stock index for KOSPI, S&P 500 and seventeen industry in Korea. The analysis is carried out the summary statistics for the whole number of observations for sampling of this study was 4000. This data is gathered by the stock index from the fnguide from Korea, the oil prices from Quandi company from Canada, the exchange rate for the Korean won vs. the United States Dollar from Korean Bank. Also in case of the oil price, the Dubai oil occupied around 80 percentages of imported oils to Korea is used to analyze this study rather the Brent crude from the North sea nearby the UK or the West Texas Intermediate price in the US. Through the empirical analysis, the results attained are as follows; Firstly, it had the unit root tests for stationary relation with Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron, then it used the logarithmic variables because unit roots were present in variables. It had the stationary data using the level variables. In result, it was rejected the non-stationary null hypothesis, and then it had the stationary data in the time-series analysis because we had not the unit root. Secondly, this study had the vector autoregressive(VAR) model which was a general framework to describe the dynamic interrelationship among stationary variables using the first differences because the time series was stationary. After VAR analysis, this study can know the result that the p-value of the construction industry was less than the 5% significance level during the whole period, and then the stock price index of the construction is the most sensitive industry to dubai oil price. In the end, this study shows the findings to give a useful help of the industrial prediction for the stock market and to understand the relation between the oil price and stock market in Korea.