일본에서 자산가격 변동과 소비

임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ),최희갑 ( Hee Gab Choi ) 한국부동산분석학회 2006 不動産學硏究 Vol.12 No.2

We examines the effect of changes in asset prices on the consumption behavior for Japanese households. The estimated long-run elasticity of consumption with respect to total asset turned out to be 0.096, which is similar to previous studies for other countries including US and Korea. We estimated a short-run consumption function based on error-correction model, where we divided the total assets into real estates and financial assets. The estimation results shows that: At first, not only financial assets but also real estates have a significant explanatory power on consumption behavior. Secondly, short-run consumption responds more sensitively to financial assets rather than real estates with a strict statistical significance. This may be show a liquidity enhancing role of financial assets. As a whole, our results for Japanese households indicates that the composition of a household assets matter for consumption behavior, which decredit the life-time hypotheses on consumption behavior.

격년 전세계약에 따른 가격변동성 분석

임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ) 韓國不動産分析學會 2009 不動産學硏究 Vol.15 No.1

This study focuses on the effect of the biennial lease contract of a deposit-based house on the price fluctuations. The minimum contract renewal period has been extended from 1 year to 2 years in December 30th 1989. The usual way of calculating price fluctuations, i.e. YoY rate, does not fully take care of seasonal effect due to the biennial lease contract. In this sense, using annual rate of 2 years ago(call AR2) rather than YoY rate is recommended. We also show that variation of YoY based only on even-years is larger than odd-years, which may call a biennial effect. As a result, the biennial effect is shown to exist, and AR2 is a more reliable measure of price fluctuations than YoY measure.

서울시 오피스 시장의 균형에 관한 연구

양영준 ( Young Jun Yang ),임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2012 不動産學硏究 Vol.18 No.1

DiPasquale-Wheaton Four Quadrant Model(4QM) describes long term equilibrium in the real estate market under the division of the real estate market into two markets: the property market and the asset market. 4QM would be utilized as a decision-making tool for Seoul office investment and management, if we prove it is still reasonable for Seoul office market. Through the Granger`s casualty test under the 4QM hypothesis, it is proved that Seoul office rent level affects Seoul office price, and the latter affects the level of Seoul commercial construction. And the economic growth rate affects Seoul office rent level, and the market interest rate affects Seoul office price. As a result of proceeding impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition analysis with vector error correlation model, it proves that the impulse of Seoul office rent level has a positive effect on Seoul office price generally, and impulse of Seoul office price has a negative effect on the level of Seoul commercial construction contrary to 4QM. It also proves that the impulse of economic growth rate has a positive effect on Seoul office rent level, and the impulse of market interest rate has a negative effect on Seoul office price.

오피스의 적정 시설관리인원 산정에 관한 연구: 생산함수와 비용함수를 이용하여

양영준 ( Young Jun Yang ),임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2013 不動産學硏究 Vol.19 No.4

This study is to analyze an optimal size of facility management personnels that account for large portion of maintenance cost an empirical analysis using production function when total number of people for maintenance is 32.66, maintenance space reaches the maximum value of 875.69㎡ per individual and the gross area of an office building is 28,597㎡. Hence maintenance area per person increases up to 28,597㎡ and diminishes after reaching that figure. In the empirical analysis using cost function, it turned out that the number of people for maintenance increases as the space of a building and capacity of installed equipment increases. The office building space that requires the smallest number of people for maintenance is 34,044㎡ according to the analysis.

오피스 관리비용의 결정요인과 최적규모에 관한 연구

양영준 ( Young Jun Yang ),임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2013 不動産學硏究 Vol.19 No.3

This study intends to analyze the determining factors of management expenses which are the deciding elements of earnings and, through all these, examine the economies of scale at which the management expenses would be at the lowest level. The management expenses were shown to be increasing; as the man power increased by 1 unit, the management expenses were found to increase by 12.990 units; and, as the number of elapsed years increased by 1 unit, the management expenses were found to increase by 0.423 units; and, as the number of electric capacity increased by 1unit, the management expenses were shown to increase by 71.017 units. Also the management expenses were analyzed to be decreasing up to 29,849㎡ and after 29,849㎡. This study has practical significance from the standpoint of, through the analysis of the determining factors of management expenses and estimates of the area sizes for optimal management expenses, potentially being utilized by future investors in predicting management expenses that accompany building ownership.

오피스 순영업소득(NOI)에 대한 고찰 -오피스 특성변수를 이용하여-

양영준 ( Young Jun Yang ),임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2014 不動産學硏究 Vol.20 No.1

This study is to find out the determinants of the net operating income from office building, which may be said to be the profit for a company, estimate the floor space which maximizes or minimizes the net operation income and also find out the effect of the type of ownership on the net operating income. The result of the regression analysis for net operating income for office showed that the income is dependent on the building area, number of story, age and location of the building. According to the corporate profit maximization theory, it was estimated that the net operating income for the office building would be the smallest when the gross area is 10,886㎡ while it is the largest with 44,606㎡. In addition, the type of ownership of office building was analyzed as the types of ownerships get diversified. It showed that the average net operating income earned by the investing organization is bigger than those earned by large companies. It is because the effective gross income for the investment organization is higher than for large corporations. This study has meanings as it handled both revenues and expenses of office buildings compared to the previous studies, derived the gross area which maximizes the net operating income and take into consideration type of ownership for the difference in net operating income. This study has its limitation as the precaution is required in applying the result to the study of offices located all around the nation. But, if the result is adopted for regional application, the difference of net operating income depending on the type of ownership would be more clear.

분양아파트의 수용가능가격 추정에 관한 연구

박운선(Park, Woon Seon),임병준(Rhim, Byeong Jun) 한국부동산학회 2012 不動産學報 Vol.49 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES Since, there's no calculation method on pre-arrange price of newly built apartments based on consumer's cognition, (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study aims to deduce determinant variables on acceptable price at the consumer's side from the several relevant theories. At the main discourse, author reveal the reason why computation of the price at the consumer side. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS These results would give a basis for the future research's on consumer's cognition on newly built apartment and apartment builder's profit maximization. 2. RESULTS As a results, conclusive criteria on acceptable prices are on characteristics on real estate and environment. and preestimating on price ascending and easing tax policy act as an consumer's perception on future value of an apartment. and householders's age and income are the determinant demographic variables. These results would give a basis for the future research's on consumer's cognition on newly built apartment and apartment builder's profit maximization.

금융위기 후 대도시 아파트 특성가격모형(HPM)의 변화 -3개 대도시(서울, 대전, 부산)를 중심으로-

박운선 ( Woon Seon Park ),임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ) 한국감정평가학회 2012 감정평가학논집 Vol.11 No.2

금융위기 이후 한국 대도시지역의 아파트에 대한 가격특성함수의 변화를 다룬 논문은 많지 않다. 그러나 시장의 참여자인 공급자와 수요자의 입장에서 가장 큰 관심사는 어떤 특성을 갖춘 아파트가 거래상대방에게 가장 매력적인가 하는 것이다. 따라서 본 연구는 특성가격모형에 의거하여, 금융위기와 사회변화 이후 한국의 대도시인 서울, 대전, 부산지역의 아파트에 대한 특성가격모형의 변화를 살폈다. 연구가설은 각 도시의 가격특성모형의 변화(가설 1), 각 도시별 변화의 추세(가설 2), 추세의 패턴(가설 3) 등을 살폈다. 이를 검증하기 위해 본 연구진은 서울, 부산, 대전의 209.107개의 아파트 실거래데이터(2006~2010년)를 수집하였다. 실증분석 결과, 금융위기와 같은 경제적 사건이 각 도시의 특성가격모형을 변화시킨 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 가설 1은 지지 되었다. 또한 세 도시에서 변화의 추세를 살핀 가설2 역시 지지되었다. 마지막으로 실수요 중심의 아파트 특성이 선호되리라는 가설 3은 도시별로 혼재된 양상을 나타내 기각되었다. There are not many literatures on changes of hedonic price model of metropolitan apartments in South Korea after global financial crisis, But apartment buyer & seller``s most urgent concern is what attributes of apartment is most attractive to trade counter part. So this study figure out the transition of hedonic price model of Korean metropolitan cities-Seoul, Daejeon, and Busan after the crisis and social change, based on hedonic price model. Research hypotheses are composed of transitions of HPM at each cities(Hypothesis 1), transition phase difference among cities(Hypothesis 2), and pattern of transition(Hypothesis 3). To test the hypotheses, we build up 209,107 real transaction data of apartment in Seoul, Busan, and Daejeon from 2006 to 2010. Results of empirical tests show that the economic event(financial crisis) changes the hedonic price model at each cities. So hypothesis 1 is accepted. And hypothesis 2 which test the phase of transition among three metropolitan cities is accepted, too. Finally, hypothesis 3 which tells that apartment attributes about practical demand would be favored is rejected. Each cities show mixed trends of preference on apartment attributes.

지역 및 가격대별 아파트가격결정요인의 차이 분석

박운선(Park Woon-Seon),임병준(Rhim Byeong-Jun) 한국주거환경학회 2012 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.10 No.1

The previous studies on the valuation of apartment, using hedonic price model do not lead to coincident results. Each characters of a codominium have various effects on prices dedending on research papers. What make the discordinance despite of the long history? This research begin with that question. And our hypothesis is the demorgraphic difference that leads to variation on hedonic price model. and The demorgraphic difference is embedded in and crowded by the geographic sections. The hedonic price model is one that decompose the price of an item into separate component, and the HPM is based hypothesis, which holds that when a consumer purchases a house , they would choose the house that has the variety of house characteristic. This study estimates the marginal values of detailed amenity factors of apartment in each section and test differences between each section' model. Therefore, The purpose of this study is to investigate the demographic difference's effect on the apartment price factors by using hedonic approach based on variables including household characteristics, estate characteristics, location characteristics, school characteristics, circumstance characteristics. This study employed multi-regression analysis method to archive the major objectives of this study. The result appear to be quite significant both in terms of the statistical reliability and their implication. Many factors have t-value enough for being significant at less than 5% level. and by chow test, each models are siginificantly different. Our result may provide some policy implications in constructing the apartment between a high price apartment district and low price apartment district.

매수인 유형이 서울 오피스 가격에 미치는 영향

양영준(Yang, Young Jun),임병준(Rhim, Byeong Jun) 한국부동산학회 2015 不動産學報 Vol.63 No.-

본 논문은 오피스의 특성변수와 매수인의 유형을 이용하여 서울 오피스 매매가격 결정요인을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 오피스 특성변수만 반영한 모형과 오피스 특성변수에 매수인 유형을 포함한 모형을 설정하여 실증 분석하였다. 매수인 유형을 포함한 모형의 설명력(수정된 R²값)이 44.3%로 매수인의 유형을 포함하지 않은 모형보다 높게 나타나 오피스 매매가격 결정요인을 분석할 때는 매수인의 유형 을 모형에 포함하는 것이 바람직하다고 할 수 있다. 실증분석 결과 강남권역(kbd)의 오피스 매매가격이 제일 높고, 도심권역(cbd), 여의도권역 (ybd), 기타권역(other) 순으로 매매가격이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 공시지가가 높을수록, 오피스 연면적이 클수록 매매가격이 높은 것으로 나타났으며 매수인의 유형이 오피스 매매가격에 미친 영향을 보면 투자기구가 제일 높은 가격에 오피스를 매입하였고 다음으로 공공기관, 기업, 개인 순으로 나타났 다. 실증분석 결과에서도 설명하였지만 수익성을 중요시하는 투자기구는 큰 규모의 신축건물 위주로 오피스를 매입하면서 연면적(㎡)당 매매금액이 높게 나타났다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study analyzed the determinants of Seoul office sale price by using the specific variables of office and the types of buyer. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study conducted an empirical analysis by setting a model that only reflects the specific variables of office and a model that includes buyer types to the specific variables of office. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The explanation power (modified R² value) of the model that includes buyer type was 44.3%, which was higher than the model that did not include buyer type. 2. RESULTS According to the results of empirical analysis, the sale price of office in KBD was the highest, followed by the CBD, YBD, and other areas in order. Also, the higher the appraised value of land and greater the total floor area of office were, the higher the sale price was. In addition, offices were purchased at the highest sale price by investment organizations, followed by public institutions, companies, and individuals. Investment organizations that valued profitability mostly purchased new, large scale buildings, which led to high sale price per total floor area.