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We examines the effect of changes in asset prices on the consumption behavior for Japanese households. The estimated long-run elasticity of consumption with respect to total asset turned out to be 0.096, which is similar to previous studies for other countries including US and Korea. We estimated a short-run consumption function based on error-correction model, where we divided the total assets into real estates and financial assets. The estimation results shows that: At first, not only financial assets but also real estates have a significant explanatory power on consumption behavior. Secondly, short-run consumption responds more sensitively to financial assets rather than real estates with a strict statistical significance. This may be show a liquidity enhancing role of financial assets. As a whole, our results for Japanese households indicates that the composition of a household assets matter for consumption behavior, which decredit the life-time hypotheses on consumption behavior.
본 논문은 우리나라의 화폐수요함수와 대출수요함수의 안정성을 비교하여 초기 출구전략으로서의 어떤 금융정책이 보다 바람직한가를 검토한다. 이를 위해 우선 Bernanke and Blinder(1988)의 모형에 외생변수로 주택가격을 추가한 모형에 근거한 실증분석을 실시한다. 주택가격을 포함한 수정모형의 가 원래 모형의 보다 좋다면, 주택가격은 중요한 외생변수가 된다고 판단할 수 있다. Bernanke and Blinder(1988)의 해석에 따르면, 화폐수요함수 잔차항의 분산이 대출수요함수 잔차항의 분산보다 크다면 대출중시 통화정책이 화폐중시 통화정책보다 바람직하다는 것이 된다. 분석결과 화폐수요함수가 대출수요함수보다 잔차항의 분산이 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이는 통화중시 통화정책보다 대출중시 통화정책이 바람직하다는 것을 의미한다. 또한 수정모형의 값이 원래 모형의 보다 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이는 주택가격은 대출수요함수에 있어서 매우 중요한 변수라는 것을 의미한다. 즉, 주택가격은 통화 정책에 있어서 고려해야 할 변수라고 볼 수 있다. 하지만 대출규모를 줄이는 정책을 실시할 때에는 중소기업과 가계의 배려가 필요하다. This study examines the monetary policy should be executed with regard to money demand function or loan demand function in implementing exit strategies in Korea. We have implemented the empirical test based on the model of Bernanke and Blinder(1988). And we have added the house price as exogeneous variable in the basic model. And if of adjusted model with including the house price is better than of the basic model, the house price is an important exogeneous variable. We have tested the money demand function is more stable than the loan demand function is. It implies we need to consider the more stable function for effective monetary policies. Results show that the loan demand function is more stable than the monetary demand function is. And of the adjusted model says that the house price is important variable in the loan demand function. It implies that the house price is considered as an important determinant variable and targeting loan is desirable in implementing monetary policies. However, it is necessary that small enterprise and household debt problems are considered when the policy is enforced.
This study focuses on the effect of the biennial lease contract of a deposit-based house on the price fluctuations. The minimum contract renewal period has been extended from 1 year to 2 years in December 30th 1989. The usual way of calculating price fluctuations, i.e. YoY rate, does not fully take care of seasonal effect due to the biennial lease contract. In this sense, using annual rate of 2 years ago(call AR2) rather than YoY rate is recommended. We also show that variation of YoY based only on even-years is larger than odd-years, which may call a biennial effect. As a result, the biennial effect is shown to exist, and AR2 is a more reliable measure of price fluctuations than YoY measure.
본 연구는 일본을 대상으로 1961-2014년, 1991-2014년의 기간에 걸쳐 동태적 예산제약이 소비-자산 비율(cay)과 자산수익률에 부과하는 균형조건을 도출한 Lettau and Ludvigson(2001)에 기초하여 소비-자산 비율의 주택수익률에 대한 예측가능성을 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과 소비-자산 비율이 주택 실질수익률과 초과수익률에 대하여 양(+)의 효과를 가지며, 특히 주택 초과수익률의 경우 통계적으로 유의한 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 장기 침체기인 1991-2014년의 기간에 있어 cay의 설명력은 전 기간을 대상으로 할 때보다 뚜렷이 약화되고 단기보다는 장기에 대해서 설명력이 유지되었다. Following the works of Lettau and Ludvigson(2001), this paper examine whether the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labor income, cay, explains housing return data in Japan. We find that the consumption-wealth ratio does predict future housing returns. That is. Japanese investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise when they expect a rise in future housing returns. But this relation was found to be weaken after the collapse of the asset bubble at the beginning of the 1990s.
This study is to analyze an optimal size of facility management personnels that account for large portion of maintenance cost an empirical analysis using production function when total number of people for maintenance is 32.66, maintenance space reaches the maximum value of 875.69㎡ per individual and the gross area of an office building is 28,597㎡. Hence maintenance area per person increases up to 28,597㎡ and diminishes after reaching that figure. In the empirical analysis using cost function, it turned out that the number of people for maintenance increases as the space of a building and capacity of installed equipment increases. The office building space that requires the smallest number of people for maintenance is 34,044㎡ according to the analysis.
DiPasquale-Wheaton Four Quadrant Model(4QM) describes long term equilibrium in the real estate market under the division of the real estate market into two markets: the property market and the asset market. 4QM would be utilized as a decision-making tool for Seoul office investment and management, if we prove it is still reasonable for Seoul office market. Through the Granger`s casualty test under the 4QM hypothesis, it is proved that Seoul office rent level affects Seoul office price, and the latter affects the level of Seoul commercial construction. And the economic growth rate affects Seoul office rent level, and the market interest rate affects Seoul office price. As a result of proceeding impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition analysis with vector error correlation model, it proves that the impulse of Seoul office rent level has a positive effect on Seoul office price generally, and impulse of Seoul office price has a negative effect on the level of Seoul commercial construction contrary to 4QM. It also proves that the impulse of economic growth rate has a positive effect on Seoul office rent level, and the impulse of market interest rate has a negative effect on Seoul office price.
This study is to find out the determinants of the net operating income from office building, which may be said to be the profit for a company, estimate the floor space which maximizes or minimizes the net operation income and also find out the effect of the type of ownership on the net operating income. The result of the regression analysis for net operating income for office showed that the income is dependent on the building area, number of story, age and location of the building. According to the corporate profit maximization theory, it was estimated that the net operating income for the office building would be the smallest when the gross area is 10,886㎡ while it is the largest with 44,606㎡. In addition, the type of ownership of office building was analyzed as the types of ownerships get diversified. It showed that the average net operating income earned by the investing organization is bigger than those earned by large companies. It is because the effective gross income for the investment organization is higher than for large corporations. This study has meanings as it handled both revenues and expenses of office buildings compared to the previous studies, derived the gross area which maximizes the net operating income and take into consideration type of ownership for the difference in net operating income. This study has its limitation as the precaution is required in applying the result to the study of offices located all around the nation. But, if the result is adopted for regional application, the difference of net operating income depending on the type of ownership would be more clear.
This study intends to analyze the determining factors of management expenses which are the deciding elements of earnings and, through all these, examine the economies of scale at which the management expenses would be at the lowest level. The management expenses were shown to be increasing; as the man power increased by 1 unit, the management expenses were found to increase by 12.990 units; and, as the number of elapsed years increased by 1 unit, the management expenses were found to increase by 0.423 units; and, as the number of electric capacity increased by 1unit, the management expenses were shown to increase by 71.017 units. Also the management expenses were analyzed to be decreasing up to 29,849㎡ and after 29,849㎡. This study has practical significance from the standpoint of, through the analysis of the determining factors of management expenses and estimates of the area sizes for optimal management expenses, potentially being utilized by future investors in predicting management expenses that accompany building ownership.
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본 논문은 오피스의 특성변수와 매수인의 유형을 이용하여 서울 오피스 매매가격 결정요인을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 오피스 특성변수만 반영한 모형과 오피스 특성변수에 매수인 유형을 포함한 모형을 설정하여 실증 분석하였다. 매수인 유형을 포함한 모형의 설명력(수정된 R²값)이 44.3%로 매수인의 유형을 포함하지 않은 모형보다 높게 나타나 오피스 매매가격 결정요인을 분석할 때는 매수인의 유형 을 모형에 포함하는 것이 바람직하다고 할 수 있다. 실증분석 결과 강남권역(kbd)의 오피스 매매가격이 제일 높고, 도심권역(cbd), 여의도권역 (ybd), 기타권역(other) 순으로 매매가격이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 공시지가가 높을수록, 오피스 연면적이 클수록 매매가격이 높은 것으로 나타났으며 매수인의 유형이 오피스 매매가격에 미친 영향을 보면 투자기구가 제일 높은 가격에 오피스를 매입하였고 다음으로 공공기관, 기업, 개인 순으로 나타났 다. 실증분석 결과에서도 설명하였지만 수익성을 중요시하는 투자기구는 큰 규모의 신축건물 위주로 오피스를 매입하면서 연면적(㎡)당 매매금액이 높게 나타났다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study analyzed the determinants of Seoul office sale price by using the specific variables of office and the types of buyer. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study conducted an empirical analysis by setting a model that only reflects the specific variables of office and a model that includes buyer types to the specific variables of office. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The explanation power (modified R² value) of the model that includes buyer type was 44.3%, which was higher than the model that did not include buyer type. 2. RESULTS According to the results of empirical analysis, the sale price of office in KBD was the highest, followed by the CBD, YBD, and other areas in order. Also, the higher the appraised value of land and greater the total floor area of office were, the higher the sale price was. In addition, offices were purchased at the highest sale price by investment organizations, followed by public institutions, companies, and individuals. Investment organizations that valued profitability mostly purchased new, large scale buildings, which led to high sale price per total floor area.