일본에서 자산가격 변동과 소비

임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ),최희갑 ( Hee Gab Choi ) 한국부동산분석학회 2006 不動産學硏究 Vol.12 No.2

We examines the effect of changes in asset prices on the consumption behavior for Japanese households. The estimated long-run elasticity of consumption with respect to total asset turned out to be 0.096, which is similar to previous studies for other countries including US and Korea. We estimated a short-run consumption function based on error-correction model, where we divided the total assets into real estates and financial assets. The estimation results shows that: At first, not only financial assets but also real estates have a significant explanatory power on consumption behavior. Secondly, short-run consumption responds more sensitively to financial assets rather than real estates with a strict statistical significance. This may be show a liquidity enhancing role of financial assets. As a whole, our results for Japanese households indicates that the composition of a household assets matter for consumption behavior, which decredit the life-time hypotheses on consumption behavior.

격년 전세계약에 따른 가격변동성 분석

임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ) 韓國不動産分析學會 2009 不動産學硏究 Vol.15 No.1

This study focuses on the effect of the biennial lease contract of a deposit-based house on the price fluctuations. The minimum contract renewal period has been extended from 1 year to 2 years in December 30th 1989. The usual way of calculating price fluctuations, i.e. YoY rate, does not fully take care of seasonal effect due to the biennial lease contract. In this sense, using annual rate of 2 years ago(call AR2) rather than YoY rate is recommended. We also show that variation of YoY based only on even-years is larger than odd-years, which may call a biennial effect. As a result, the biennial effect is shown to exist, and AR2 is a more reliable measure of price fluctuations than YoY measure.

금융위기 후 대도시 아파트 특성가격모형(HPM)의 변화 -3개 대도시(서울, 대전, 부산)를 중심으로-

박운선 ( Woon Seon Park ),임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim ) 한국감정평가학회 2012 감정평가학논집 Vol.11 No.2

금융위기 이후 한국 대도시지역의 아파트에 대한 가격특성함수의 변화를 다룬 논문은 많지 않다. 그러나 시장의 참여자인 공급자와 수요자의 입장에서 가장 큰 관심사는 어떤 특성을 갖춘 아파트가 거래상대방에게 가장 매력적인가 하는 것이다. 따라서 본 연구는 특성가격모형에 의거하여, 금융위기와 사회변화 이후 한국의 대도시인 서울, 대전, 부산지역의 아파트에 대한 특성가격모형의 변화를 살폈다. 연구가설은 각 도시의 가격특성모형의 변화(가설 1), 각 도시별 변화의 추세(가설 2), 추세의 패턴(가설 3) 등을 살폈다. 이를 검증하기 위해 본 연구진은 서울, 부산, 대전의 209.107개의 아파트 실거래데이터(2006~2010년)를 수집하였다. 실증분석 결과, 금융위기와 같은 경제적 사건이 각 도시의 특성가격모형을 변화시킨 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 가설 1은 지지 되었다. 또한 세 도시에서 변화의 추세를 살핀 가설2 역시 지지되었다. 마지막으로 실수요 중심의 아파트 특성이 선호되리라는 가설 3은 도시별로 혼재된 양상을 나타내 기각되었다. There are not many literatures on changes of hedonic price model of metropolitan apartments in South Korea after global financial crisis, But apartment buyer & seller``s most urgent concern is what attributes of apartment is most attractive to trade counter part. So this study figure out the transition of hedonic price model of Korean metropolitan cities-Seoul, Daejeon, and Busan after the crisis and social change, based on hedonic price model. Research hypotheses are composed of transitions of HPM at each cities(Hypothesis 1), transition phase difference among cities(Hypothesis 2), and pattern of transition(Hypothesis 3). To test the hypotheses, we build up 209,107 real transaction data of apartment in Seoul, Busan, and Daejeon from 2006 to 2010. Results of empirical tests show that the economic event(financial crisis) changes the hedonic price model at each cities. So hypothesis 1 is accepted. And hypothesis 2 which test the phase of transition among three metropolitan cities is accepted, too. Finally, hypothesis 3 which tells that apartment attributes about practical demand would be favored is rejected. Each cities show mixed trends of preference on apartment attributes.

지역 및 가격대별 아파트가격결정요인의 차이 분석

박운선(Park Woon-Seon),임병준(Rhim Byeong-Jun) 한국주거환경학회 2012 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.10 No.1

The previous studies on the valuation of apartment, using hedonic price model do not lead to coincident results. Each characters of a codominium have various effects on prices dedending on research papers. What make the discordinance despite of the long history? This research begin with that question. And our hypothesis is the demorgraphic difference that leads to variation on hedonic price model. and The demorgraphic difference is embedded in and crowded by the geographic sections. The hedonic price model is one that decompose the price of an item into separate component, and the HPM is based hypothesis, which holds that when a consumer purchases a house , they would choose the house that has the variety of house characteristic. This study estimates the marginal values of detailed amenity factors of apartment in each section and test differences between each section' model. Therefore, The purpose of this study is to investigate the demographic difference's effect on the apartment price factors by using hedonic approach based on variables including household characteristics, estate characteristics, location characteristics, school characteristics, circumstance characteristics. This study employed multi-regression analysis method to archive the major objectives of this study. The result appear to be quite significant both in terms of the statistical reliability and their implication. Many factors have t-value enough for being significant at less than 5% level. and by chow test, each models are siginificantly different. Our result may provide some policy implications in constructing the apartment between a high price apartment district and low price apartment district.

상권경쟁을 고려한 신규점포의 입지선정에 관한 연구 : 서울시 대형마트를 대상으로

태경섭(Kyoung-soub Tae),임병준(Byeong-jun Rhim) 대한지리학회 2010 대한지리학회지 Vol.45 No.5

입지는 모든 산업에 있어서 성공의 핵심적인 결정요소이기 때문에 잘못 선정된 입지는 아무리 유능한 운영자라 할지라도 많은 어려움을 겪기 마련이다. 이에 본 연구는 보다 합리적이고 간편한 소매점의 입지 선정 모델을 만들고자 서울시 소재 대형마트를 대상으로 허프의 확률이론을 적용하여 점포별 점유인구를 산출하였다. 점유인구를 바탕으로 모든 단위 구역을 상점간 경쟁 상태를 나타내는 4개의 시장유형, 즉 독점시장, 과점시장, 경쟁시장, 비경쟁시장으로 구분하였다. 신규점포가 입지에 가장 합리적인 장소는 점유 인구를 가장 많이 확보할 수 있는 지점으로, 비경쟁시장을 최대한 확보할 수 있으면서, 경쟁시장에서 멀리 떨어진 곳이다. Finding the ideal location for your business is one of the most critical and important steps you will have to undertake. Otherwise, done in the wrong way you will only end up paying an expensive cost for an unsuitable location. Therefore, to select the perfect location for your business, this study makes a reasonable and simple model for retail shops by calculating occupation population for each store applying Huff’s “Probability Theory” to Hypermarket in Seoul. Then, this study, based on occupation population, has divided every unit section (dong scale) into 4 market types which represent the state of the competitive markets, including monopoly, oligopoly, competitive, and noncompetitive markets. Consequently, the most reasonable place to locate a new store is where it can take most of the customers, that is, a place which can take non-competitive market as much as possible and is distant far enough from competitive market where competition is severe.

인플레이션과 인플레이션 불확실성

최희갑(Heegab Chol),임병준(Byungjoon Rhim) 한국계량경제학회 2006 JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY AND ECONOMETRICS Vol.17 No.4

본 연구는 한국의 1975년 1분기~2002년 1분기간 소비자물가지수(농산물 및 석유류는 제외)를 대상으로 인플레이션율 증가가 인플레이션 불확실성 증가를 야기한다는 Friedman(1977)의 가설이 한국에서도 성립하고 있음을 보였다. 인플레이션 불확실성 지표를 추계하는데 있어 우리는 인플레이션 변동성에 초점을 맞춘 GARCH모형과 더불어 소비자태도조사에 기초하여 개인들 간의 인플레이션 전망치의 이질성에 기초한 직접적 불확실성 지표를 이용하였다. 우리의 실증분석 결과는 중앙은행이 인플레이션율의 절대적 수준을 하락함으로써 인플레이션 변동성을 감소(GARCH 모형)시켜 불확실성에 기인하는 비용을 억제할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 개인들 간의 인플레이션 기대에 대한 이질성을 감소시켜 통화정책의 신뢰성을 높이는데도 기여(직접적 관찰치에 의한 모형)할 수 있음을 알 수 있다. Based on the the dispersion of survey-based individual inflation forecasts of Samsung Economic Research Institute, we have tested the hypothesis of Friedman(1977), which states that inflation uncertainty increases at higher level of inflation. We have used quarterly consumer price index data from the 1st Quarter of 1975 to 1st Quater of 2002. We found that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation. This finding is consistent with the previous results which employed conditional variance from GARCH-type models as indicators of inflation uncertainty. Our result implies that a stable low inflation reduces not only inflation variability but also discrepancies in the inflation forecasts among individuals.

중개대상물에 따른 보수요율 만족도 및 지불의사액 추정 -공장, 토지, 상가, 사무용 오피스텔을 중심으로-

김기령 ( Kim Ki-ryeong ),임병준 ( Rhim Byeong-jun ) 한국부동산분석학회 2020 不動産學硏究 Vol.26 No.4

본 연구는 부동산중개 시장을 부동산 유형별 중개대상물(공장, 토지, 상가, 사무용 오피스텔)을 기준으로 세분화하여 부동산중개 서비스에 대한 가치를 측정함으로써 부동산중개에 대한 시사점을 제공하기 위해 작성되었다. 연구를 위해, 개업공인중개사를 대상으로 한 구조화된 인터뷰 방식을 이용하여 부동산시장 내에 존재하는 세부시장을 조사하였고, 조건부가치평가법(CVM)의 한 방식인 이중양분선택형질문법(DBDCQ)을 이용하여 데이터를 수집하였다. 수집된 데이터를 토대로 프로빗회귀분석과 최대우도함수를 이용하여 지불의사액(WTP)를 추정하였으며, 법정 중개보수 근접률을 도출하였다. 분석결과, 중개서비스 공급자 측면에서 보면, 공장, 토지, 상가, 사무용 오피스텔 순서로 차별화된 전문성이 중개시장별로 요구된다는 것이 조사되었다. 소비자 측면에서 보면, 공장, 토지, 상가, 사무용 오피스텔 순서로 법정중개보수 근접률이 다르게 나타났다. 즉, 인터뷰방식을 이용한 조사결과에서 보여지는 각 유형별 중개시장에서 중개업자에게 요구되는 전문성의 순서와 조건부가치평가법을 이용한 분석결과에서 나타난 소비자 지불의사액 크기 순서가 일치하였다. 이는 서비스 공급자인 중개업자와 서비스 소비자들 사이에 유형별 중개대상물에 갖는 기대치가 같다는 것을 의미한다. 이러한 세부적인 특성의 차이로 인해서 보이지 않는 차별화된 가격이 소비자들의 지불의사액(WTP)로 나타난다. In this study, a real estate brokerage market was segmented into sub-markets by the types of real estate products (i.e., factory, land, commercial spaces, and officetel for offices). Based on the segmented sub-market, this study estimated the value of the real estate brokerage services so that the result may contribute to the market with appropriate implications. For the study, a structured interview was employed to confirm the existence of sub-markets by real estate products. For the data collection, the contingent valuation method with double bounded dichotomous choice question was utilized. As a statistical method, probit regression analysis model with maximum likelihood function was utilized to estimate the consumers’ willingness to pay. The estimated willingness to pay was used to calculate the market price-to-willingness rate, which is the ratio between the official real estate broker fees and the willingness to pay. As a result, from the perspective of real estate brokers, it is found that the sub-market of factory requires the highest level of professional knowledge followed by the sub-markets of land, commercial spaces, and officetel. From the service consumers’ side, the sub-market of factory shows the highest similarity between the market price and the WTP followed by the sub-market of land, commercial spaces, and officetels in order of similarity. This finding implies that service providers (i.e. real estate brokers) and consumers have similar level of expectation from the real estate brokerage market. Because of this difference across products, the invisible prices differentiated by the product types incurs the heterogeneous level of willingness-to-pay from the consumers.

업무시설의 에너지비용 결정요인 실증분석

양영준(Yang, Young Jun),임병준(Rhim, Byeong Jun) 한국부동산학회 2013 不動産學報 Vol.55 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of the study were to analyze determinants of energy cost spent at business facilities and to understand how a size of a building affects the energy cost. (2) RESEARCH METHOD With a total of 109 business facilities in Korea managed by real estate agencies determined a research subject, the study conducted an investigation on energy costs(electrical bills) of those facilities from 2008 to 2010. In order to analyze determinants of energy cost, the study conducted a regression analysis with the energy cost determined as a dependent variable and gross area, square of the gross area, the number of stories, passed years, outdoor temperature, electric capacity, installed capacity and owner of a building as independent variables. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS According to the results of the empirical analysis, as t he passed year increases by a year, the energy cost increases by 0.09won/㎡. Eelectric capacity increases by one electric unit, the energy cost goes up by 27.053won/㎡. And the buildings owned by major companies were found to spend energy cost more by 1.442won/㎡. It was also reported that the energy cost decreases as much as 21,069㎡ of gross area of a business facility but when it reaches 21,069㎡, the energy cost increases again. 2. RESULTS The study understood that as the passed years and the elect ric capacity increase, the energy cost goes up. And the buildings owned by the major companies would spend more money on energy comparing to other buildings. The energy cost was analyzed that it would decrease to 21,069㎡ of a gross area of a business facility and t hat it would increase again when it reaches 21,069㎡. The study should have looked if there are any other variables to affect the energy cost. The study is also believed to have a limit in that it has excluded high-rise buildings and outsize buildings.

매수인 유형이 서울 오피스 가격에 미치는 영향

양영준(Yang, Young Jun),임병준(Rhim, Byeong Jun) 한국부동산학회 2015 不動産學報 Vol.63 No.-

본 논문은 오피스의 특성변수와 매수인의 유형을 이용하여 서울 오피스 매매가격 결정요인을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 오피스 특성변수만 반영한 모형과 오피스 특성변수에 매수인 유형을 포함한 모형을 설정하여 실증 분석하였다. 매수인 유형을 포함한 모형의 설명력(수정된 R²값)이 44.3%로 매수인의 유형을 포함하지 않은 모형보다 높게 나타나 오피스 매매가격 결정요인을 분석할 때는 매수인의 유형 을 모형에 포함하는 것이 바람직하다고 할 수 있다. 실증분석 결과 강남권역(kbd)의 오피스 매매가격이 제일 높고, 도심권역(cbd), 여의도권역 (ybd), 기타권역(other) 순으로 매매가격이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 공시지가가 높을수록, 오피스 연면적이 클수록 매매가격이 높은 것으로 나타났으며 매수인의 유형이 오피스 매매가격에 미친 영향을 보면 투자기구가 제일 높은 가격에 오피스를 매입하였고 다음으로 공공기관, 기업, 개인 순으로 나타났 다. 실증분석 결과에서도 설명하였지만 수익성을 중요시하는 투자기구는 큰 규모의 신축건물 위주로 오피스를 매입하면서 연면적(㎡)당 매매금액이 높게 나타났다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study analyzed the determinants of Seoul office sale price by using the specific variables of office and the types of buyer. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study conducted an empirical analysis by setting a model that only reflects the specific variables of office and a model that includes buyer types to the specific variables of office. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The explanation power (modified R² value) of the model that includes buyer type was 44.3%, which was higher than the model that did not include buyer type. 2. RESULTS According to the results of empirical analysis, the sale price of office in KBD was the highest, followed by the CBD, YBD, and other areas in order. Also, the higher the appraised value of land and greater the total floor area of office were, the higher the sale price was. In addition, offices were purchased at the highest sale price by investment organizations, followed by public institutions, companies, and individuals. Investment organizations that valued profitability mostly purchased new, large scale buildings, which led to high sale price per total floor area.

분양아파트의 수용가능가격 추정에 관한 연구

박운선(Park, Woon Seon),임병준(Rhim, Byeong Jun) 한국부동산학회 2012 不動産學報 Vol.49 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES Since, there's no calculation method on pre-arrange price of newly built apartments based on consumer's cognition, (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study aims to deduce determinant variables on acceptable price at the consumer's side from the several relevant theories. At the main discourse, author reveal the reason why computation of the price at the consumer side. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS These results would give a basis for the future research's on consumer's cognition on newly built apartment and apartment builder's profit maximization. 2. RESULTS As a results, conclusive criteria on acceptable prices are on characteristics on real estate and environment. and preestimating on price ascending and easing tax policy act as an consumer's perception on future value of an apartment. and householders's age and income are the determinant demographic variables. These results would give a basis for the future research's on consumer's cognition on newly built apartment and apartment builder's profit maximization.