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지역개발기금의 규모 예측 및 운영개선 방안에 관한 연구: 경기도를 중심으로
이학연,라휘문,민병길 한국정책분석평가학회 2023 政策分析評價學會報 Vol.33 No.4
본 연구의 목적은 지역개발기금의 현황과 정책적 필요성을 분석하고 운영상의 개선방안을 모색하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 지역개발기금에 대한 역사적 변천과정 및 이론적 논의를 바탕으로 지역개발기금을 둘러싼 이슈 및 정책적 기능에 대해서 논의하였다. 또한 현재 지역개발기금의 현황분석을 기반으로 지역개발기금의 미래 채권 발행과 융자규모 및 수익성을 예측하고, 사회정책적 효용성을 검토했다. 분석 결과에 따르면 채권발행 규모 감소에 대한 대비가 필요하고 융자규모 또한 감소할 것으로 예측되며, 기금규모와 순이익에 대한 다양한 추정방식 통해 예측한 결과, 기금의 순손실과 고갈 가능성을 확인했다. 또한, 지역개발기금이 갖고 있는 사회정책적 효용성을 살펴보면 지방자치 원리에 부합하며, 지역 재원의 효율적 배분을 통해 주민 후생을 높일 수 있는 사회적 유용성을 갖는 정책으로 평가된다. 지역개발기금은 복지증진을 위한 투자사업에 적절히 활용되며, 세대 간 형평성을 높이고 예산절감 효과를 기대할 수 있다. 그러나 지역개발 채권의 의무매입 대상과 이자율 조정, 계약기준의 조정, 기금 조성 상한제 및 융자대상 확대 등의 개선사항에 대한 면밀한 검토와 조정이 필요하다고 판단되며, 특히 친환경 자동차에 대한 채권 의무매입 검토와 소상공인에 대한 경제적 부담 경감 등을 고려해야 필요가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 여건을 고려할 때 지역개발 기금들을 운영하는 지방정부들은 제시된 정책적 제언들에 대한 적극적인 반영을 통해 지역개발기금의 지속 가능성을 높이고, 사회적 효용성을 극대화하는 방향으로 정책을 개선해야 할 필요가 있다. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the current status and issues related to regional development funds, elucidating the policy necessity of these funds and proposing improvements for their management. Theoretical discussions on local funds and a status analysis of regional development funds were conducted, alongside investigations of similar international cases. This research also includes predictions of the bond issuance size and profitability of regional development funds, as well as an examination of their socio-policy utility. The findings suggest that the estimated outcomes of bond issuance, lending size, and profitability could vary significantly based on the analytical method, indicating the need for preparedness against a potential decrease in bond issuance sizes. By 2030, the fund's lending size is projected to be less than that of 2022, and depending on the estimation method, there is a possibility of net losses and depletion of funds. The theoretical and policy utility of the regional development funds reveals their substantial social benefit, aligning with principles of local autonomy and efficient allocation of regional resources to enhance resident welfare. Additionally, the funds internalize external diseconomies and are being appropriately utilized in investments for regional economic development and welfare improvement. The funds also contribute to intergenerational equity in public goods consumption and are expected to yield budget savings by ensuring adequate public goods supply. Nevertheless, the study identifies a need for improvement and review in several areas. A meticulous examination and flexible adjustment of the compulsory purchase target group for regional development bonds is necessary. The mandatory purchase of bonds should be maintained, but adjustments in targets and criteria during economic downturns are warranted. A positive reassessment of the mandatory purchase of bonds for hybrid and electric vehicles is suggested, as they use and congest regional roads, increasing the financial needs for road construction and maintenance. Adjustments to the interest rates of regional development bonds to reflect benchmark interest rates may increase conformity to regional development fund policies and alleviate critical public opinion. Revisions to the purchase standards for regional development bonds, including exemption from mandatory purchase for small-scale contracts, could relieve the economic burden on small businesses. Lastly, the study underscores the importance of considering a cap on the creation of regional development funds and expanding lending targets to ensure that the funds are operated according to their intended purpose and to invigorate them through loans for private sector project initiatives.
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An International Comparison of R&D Efficiency : DEA Approach
이학연,박용태 기술경영경제학회 2005 Journal of Technology Innovation Vol.13 No.2
A prerequisite for making R&D more productive is to be able to measure its productivity. Most of the previous studies on this topic have attempted to measure R&D productivity at the firm or industry levels. In this study, however, R&D productivity is measured at the national level to provide R&D policy implications, particularly for Asian countries. Contrary to the previous studies where total factor productivity was adopted, this study employs the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to measure R&D productivity. DEA is a multi-factor productivity analysis model for measuring the relative efficiency of each Decision Making Unit (DMU). In addition to the basic DEA model that includes all inputs and outputs, five additional models are constructed by combining single input with all outputs and single output with all inputs in order to measure specialized R&D efficiency. In this study, the twenty-seven countries are classified into four clusters based on the output-specialized R&D efficiency: inventors, merchandisers, academicians, and duds. Then, the characteristics of the Asian countries with respect to R&D efficiency are identified. It is found that Singapore ranks high in total efficiency, and Japan in patent-oriented efficiency. Meanwhile, China, Korea, and Taiwanare found to be relatively inefficient in R&D. We expect that the findings from this study will be able to provide directions for R&D policy-making of the Asian countries.
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이학연,J.S. Butler 서울대학교행정대학원 2022 The Korean Journal of Policy Studies Vol.37 No.4
Clear evidence about the effectiveness of economic development incentives is limited. To bridge this research gap, this study uses the Upjohn Institute Panel Database on Incentives and Taxes (PDIT). Unemployment and employment rates are used to analyze the effectiveness of tax-based incentives. Statistical results indicate that tax incentives have a marginal impact on employment status and limited benefits to states. Only the R&D tax credit statistically significantly increases employment rates. This result supports the interpretation of economic development policies as a zero-sum game.
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