문재인 정부 부동산정책의 비판적 평가

이창무 ( Lee Chang-moo ) 한국행정연구원 2020 한국행정연구 Vol.29 No.4

Even though Moon Jae-in govenrment introduced dozens of policies to control the housing market, housing price in the Seoul Metropolitan Area has kept increasing rapidly. The housing policy framework of the Moon's government resembles that of Roh Moo-Hyun govenrment, which was focused on the strong regulations to restrict redevelopments in the Gangnam area and multi-house ownership. The Moon's government has shared the failures with the Roh's governemnt, too. One noticeable difference between two governments is that during the Roh’s administration period, the price surge in Seoul was spread into wider Gyunggi province promptly. while it was retained in Seoul during the first half of the Moon's. For now, Gyeonggi province is however suffering from soaring housing price following Seoul. This difference in trends provides important clues to understand the housing market conditions during the Moon's government. This study attempts to assess the housing policies of Moon Jae-In govenrment in the comparative framework with those of other governments, espeically focused on Roh Moo- hyun government. The final results indicate that unitended side effects have been stronger than the designated effects.

북한의 급변사태 및 대량탈북에 따른 경찰 대응방안 연구

남재성(Nam Jae Sung),이창무(Lee Chang Moo) 한국공안행정학회 2013 한국공안행정학회보 Vol.22 No.1

국내외를 불문하고 김정은 체제에 대한 심각한 우려가 제기되고 있는 현실에 비추어 볼 때 가까운 장래에 북한의 급격한 정세변화와 대한민국에 대한 잠재적 위해요소의 등장은 우리가 반드시 겪게 될 현실이고 반드시 막아야할 문제라는 점에서 개방된 사고로 모든 가능성을 염두하고 대책을 수립해야 한다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 국가 차원뿐만 아니라 세부적으로 경찰 차원에서, 김정은 체제 이후 예상되는 북한 내부의 권력투쟁과 그에 따른 사회적 혼란 및 잠재적 위해요소, 그리고 그로 인한 북한 주민의 대량 탈북사태와 국내 유입 등 치안과 안보위해 상황을 다각도로 검토해보고 무엇보다도 경찰의 대응방안을 중심으로 대책을 마련하고자 하였다. 연구결과 여러 위협 변수들에도 불구하고 현 상태에서 당장 급격한 변화와 북한 정권의 붕괴 가능성은 높지 않다고 보인다. 하지만 북한체제의 특성상, 북한의 급변사태가 언제든 발생할 수 있다는 측면에서 항상 예의주시해야 할 것이며, 경찰은 북한의 급변사태에 따라 대량 탈북사태가 발생했을 경우 신속히 대응할 수 있는 즉응적 대비태세를 갖추어야 할 것이다. 특히, 이에 대한 대비태세는 대량 탈북 등 급변사태 발생이전의 사전적 역량강화 방안, 평시상황이지만 준 급변사태 발생단계에서 나타날 수 있는 대량 탈북사태 대응 방안, 급변사태 발생시의 대량 탈북사태 대응 방안 등으로 구분하여 수립하는 것이 타당할 것이다. 따라서 향후 보안경찰은 이 세 가지의 대응방안을 중심으로 조직적, 인력적 역량을 강화하고 대응을 위한 세부 시나리오를 마련하는 등 대량탈북 사태와 같은 북한의 급변사태에 신속히 대응할 수 있는 철저한 준비태세를 확립해야 할 것이다. In the midst of present situation where a serious concern is being raised at the national and international level on Kim Jong-un regime, it is inevitable that we will certainly experience North Korea's sudden changes in the state of affairs and the appearance of potentially dangerous elements towards South Korea against which we must defend. Accordingly, we must develop measures of responses for every possibility with open mind. The purpose of this study, accordingly, was to extensively examine not only at the national level but also at the specific level of the police the North Korean power struggle and according social disorder, potentially dangerous elements, massive defections of North Koreans and their inflow to South Korea and situations that present risk to public order and national security in order to develop various measures of responses centering on the response of the police. The study result shows that in spite of numerous variables of threat, the possibility of immediate and sudden changes in North Korea and the collapse of its regime does not appear to be high. According to the characteristics of the North Korea regime, however, there is a need for constant and close watch in the sense that sudden changes could occur at anytime in North Korea. Additionally, it was found that it would be necessary for the police to be equipped with instant readiness for swiftly responding to any massive defections of North Koreans according to sudden changes in North Korea. It was revealed that it would be appropriate to develop measures of responses by dividing them into a preemptive measure of reinforcing capabilities prior to the occurrence of sudden changes such as massive defections, a response measure against massive defections that could occur at the stage of semi-sudden changes during peacetime situation and a response measure against massive defections that occurs at the occurrence of sudden changes. Accordingly, it would be necessary for the security police to establish through readiness for swiftly responding to sudden changes in North Korea such as massive defections such as reinforcing organizational and personnel capabilities and develop specific scenarios of response centering on the three types of measures of responses mentioned above.

활성산소 측정 데이터를 위한 모바일 기반의 U헬스 시스템 설계 및 구현

이창무,오승교,최덕재,Lee, Chang Moo,Oh, Seung Kyo,Choi, Deok Jai 한국스마트미디어학회 2012 스마트미디어저널 Vol.1 No.4

In recent years the combination of IT and BT for U-Healthcare Medical Services has attracted popular attention as an alternative for solving health problems due to aging issue. Active oxygen as free radicals causes unstable state of the body resulting to other disease on which approximate 90% of the diseases are associated with active oxygen. The severity is even higher along with increasing age. Therefore, there is a need for systematic management of active oxygen saturation for the elderly and chronic patients. In this paper, the data about active oxygen measurements from the body measurement is sent to the data storage of medical facilities by the service provider. Medical information is measured by devices provided complying with the standard, support and information using Bluetooth communication. Users can check their health status themselves using the proposed system through 3G/4G mobile devices like smart phone to medical institutions in which the smart phone act as a gateway for medical data transferred from patient to medical institutions and vice versa. Users can get and experience a diagnosis and effective U-Environmental Health Services from Medical institutions anywhere using the proposed built system.

TPL을 이용한 일단위 실거래 가격지수 산정방법에 관한 연구

류강민(Kang-Min Ryu),한제선(Je-Sun Han),정상준(Sang-Jun Jung),이창무(Chang-Moo Lee) 한국주택학회 2017 주택연구 Vol.25 No.2

Since the apartment sales price index using repeated sale data was introduced in 2009, the multi-family house price index was released in 2016. The two-type houses have good characteristics for making indices. For example they have lots of transaction data and lots of stock with standardized type for quality control. However, detached houses in Korea are not supplied in a standardized form and it is difficult to identify individual housing characteristics. Apart from this there is a lack of transaction data to generate sale price index of a detached house since the domestic housing market has been dominated by apartment. The other issue associated with the housing price index is whether the price index could reflect an underlying demand of financial asset such as a stock market. In order to estimate an underlying asset of capital market like the KOSPI index, a daily index should be considered so that the property investors who desire to hedge their investment can timely respond on the market change. Unfortunately, the house price index has been calculated in a monthly base due to a lack of transaction data. This study proposes the ‘TPL method’ of Radar Logic company, which calculates indices even when data exists in a small number and produces the index on a daily basis.

실거래가를 활용한 비아파트 중위수 매매가격 지수

이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee ),김종현 ( Jong Hyun Kim ),박한 ( Han Park ),김형태 ( Hyung Tae Kim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2008 부동산학연구 Vol.14 No.3

비선형 Mankiw-Weil 주택수요 모형 -수도권 지역을 대상으로-

이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee ),최성호 ( Seong Ho Choi ) 한국부동산분석학회 2010 부동산학연구 Vol.16 No.1

Recently, Korean housing market faces demographic changes including small or aged household increase and population growth slowdown. The demographic changes lead researchers to analyze relationships between demographic changes and housing demand. The researches chiefly estimate a modified version of the Mankiw-Weil model(1989). However, rare attention in previous researches has been directed at theoretical model form and estimation method. In this paper, we estimate a Non-Linear version of the Mankiw-Weil model corresponding to theoretical form and develop a modified Mankiw-Weil model incorporating housing demand factors such as income, housing cost, household type, household size and housing tenure. This paper suggests that Non-Linear estimator is useful to extend Mankiw-Weil model and analyzes how does housing demand vary corresponding to age structure, income, cost, household type, and housing tenure.

임차인 입장에서의 전월세전환율 분석

이창무(Chang-Moo Lee),최소의(So-Eui Choi),제민혜(Min-Hye Je) 한국주택학회 2010 주택연구 Vol.18 No.2

과거 국내 주택시장 주요한 임대계약형태는 전세였으나, 최근에는 보증부월세와 전세가 공존하는 형태를 보이고 있다. 이러한 시장의 상황을 반영하듯 보증부월세와 전세의 관계를 설명해 주는 전월세전환율에 관한 다수의 연구들이 발표되었다. 이러한 연구들은 임대인이 전세나 보증금의 총액을 주택구입을 위한 레버리지효과로 사용한다는 가정하에서 시장전월세전환율이 시장이자율보다 높게 나타나는 이유를 잘 설명하고 있다. 그러나 시장전월세전환율이 임대인과 임차인의 협상과정을 통해 결정됨에도 불구하고 대부분의 연구는 임대인의 시각에 집중되어 있다. 그러므로 전월세전환율에 대한 심도 높은 이해를 위해서는 임차인의 입장에서 전월세전환율이 어떠한 기회비용을 가지는지 이해하는 것이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 그동안 부족했던 임차인 입장에서의 전월세전환율을 분석하였다. 본 논문은 임차인의 선호 임대계약형태별 지불의사임대료 설문자료를 바탕으로 하여 전월세전환율을 분석하였다. 설문에는 응답자의 전략적인 응답을 회 피하기 위하여 PSM(Price Sensitivity Method)기법을 사용하였다. 분석결과 임차인 입장에서의 전월세전환율은 시장전월세전환율과 다르지 않은 수준으로 나타났으며 이러한 결과는 응답자의 다수가 전세금을 향후 주택구입에 활용하고자 한 조사결과를 통해 이해할 수 있다. 또한 임차인의 개인특성은 전월세전환율 결정구조에 큰 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 분석되었다. Two different rental contracts have coexisted in Korean rental housing market, Chonsei and Monthly Rent with Variable Deposit(MRVD). Chonsei and MRVD are connected by Conversion rate of Chonsei to Monthly Rent. Several previous studies on this issue have been focused on owners’ point of view. However, there have been no studies on renters’point of view in spite that the market conversion rate is determined in the dealing process between owners and renters. Therefore, it is a crucial task to understand how renter’s opportunity cost of a unit amount of Chonsei(or conversion rate) is determined. This study analyzes the conversion rate based on the survey of renters’ willingness to pay for the two different rental contract types. The survey adopts Price Sensitivity Method (PSM) to avoid the strategic bias of surveyee’s response. The results reveal that renters’ Conversion rate of Chonsei to Monthly Rent is similar to the market conversion rate rather than the market interest rate. One of the main reasons for the similarity is that renters are maintaining Chonsei for future home purchase. And the results show that renters characteristics are not an important factor in determination of Conversion rate of Chonsei to Monthly Rent.

단독,다가구 및 연립,다세대 임대시장분석 -매물 DATA를 사용하여-

이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee ),이진호 ( Jin Ho Lee ),임성은 ( Sung Eun Lim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2007 부동산학연구 Vol.13 No.1

In 2005, 54.2% of the residents in Seoul live in apartment. It means that the rest 45.8% live in non-aprartment housing. In spite of this high percentage of non-apartment residents, there exist few pieces of related research on the non-apartment housing market in Korea. This is especially true for the rental market of non-apartment housing. This report analyzes the characteristics of the non-apartment rental housing market, which has been almost ignored in the academic field in Korea mainly due to insufficiency of the related data. In Seoul, single family detached housing is scarce nowaday. Instead, a few types of multi-family housing fill the gap. They can be divided into three types including Dagagu, Dasedai, and Yeonrib by the size of the building and the configuration of the individual units in it. For these types of housing, the actual sales and rental contract data is not accessible. Instead, offering prices and rents have been collected by a real estate data provider in Korea, named R114. This study analyzes the data for the time period from June 2004 to December 2006. The results of the analysis show that the rent levels of Dasedai and Dagagu have been relatively stable, comparing with the soaring rents and prices of apartments. However, the movements of the rents for non-apartment housing have been differentiated by type and area. Also, the conversion rate of Cheonse to monthly rent for non-apartment housing have been higher than that of apartment. Overall, the non-apartment housing exhibits relatively stable changes in various indices comparing with those of apartments.

가구주의 탄생 코호트 효과를 고려한 주택수요 분석모형

이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee ),김미경 ( Mi Kyoung Kim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2013 부동산학연구 Vol.19 No.3

There exist various arguments about future housing demand in the Korean housing market which is facing with aging population along with up-coming retirement of the baby boom generation. Although the baby boom generation has been a dominant force driving the housing market, they experienced both the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s and the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. Due to their distinctive experiences during their wealth formation ages, many scholars suspect that their housing demand and preference would differ from the earlier generations who formed their wealth during surging economic development period. This paper develops a new form of housing demand estimation model to overcome the limitations of the Mankiw-Weil model and to sort out the birth cohort effect from age effect on housing demand. The model is based on a non-linear form, and applies the non-linear least square estimation procedure for the estimation of the empirical model. The empirical estimation results show that the baby boom generation holds low standards of housing consumption than other generations. It implies that there would be extra decrease in housing demand when the baby boom generation is getting aged, comparing with the aging effect of the earlier generations.

아파트 분양가조정과 개발이익분배

이창무(Lee Chang-Moo),나강열(Na Kang-Yeol),구자훈(Koo Ja-Hoon) 한국주택학회 2004 주택연구 Vol.12 No.2

본 연구는 최근 논란이 되고 있는 공동주택의 분양가정책과 관련하여 분양가공개정책에 대한 실효성이 미비하다는 전제하에서 일련의 도시개발사업에 참여하고 있는 개발주체별 개발이익의 규모를 정확히 파악하고, 개발이익의 대상과 규모를 설정하는 것이 공동주택의 가격안정화에 효과적인 영향을 줄 것으로 판단하였다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 개발사업의 주체(택지개발자, 주택건설자, 아파트피분양자)와 지역시장(수도권과 비수도권)으로 구분하여, 각각의 개발이익을 산출하였다. 그 결과, 개발이익을 가장 많이 취득하는 주체는 비수도권의 청주지역을 제외하고 주택의 수요자인 아파트피분양자로 나타났고, 그 다음으로 주택건설자, 택지개발자 순이었다. 이는 일반적인 인식과는 사뭇 다른 양상을 보여주고 있다. 지역시장을 구분하여 개발이익을 산출하면, 수도권지역이 비수도권지역에 비해 전체 개발이익이 약 1.3-9.0배 더 크게 나타났다. 이는 도시규모가 크고, 주택의 수요와 공급이 활발하게 발생하는 지역일수록 개발이익이 크다는 것을 함의하고 있다. 위의 결과를 준용한다면, 공동주택의 분양가 공개제도가 적용될 경우, 택지개발자와 주택건설자의 개발이익이 아파트피분양자에게 전이될 가능성이 높고, 이러한 개발이익은 기업활동을 통해 파생된 이익보다는 개인의 불로소득으로 사유화될 개연성이 크기 때문에 정책의 실효성이 낮을 것으로 예상된다. 그러므로 분양가조정정책에 대한 인위적인 개입보다는 그에 앞서 환수가능한 개발이익의 주체와 규모를 면밀히 검토하는것이 선행되어야 할 것이다. This study begins with the assumption that the pre-sale price of new condominium is not the sole determinant of the equilibrium marked price of the condominium after construction. This lack of direct relationship has been reportedin the recent studies. Once this hypothesis is accepted, any public interventions on the determination of pre-sale price of new condominiums result in distributional adjustments of development profits among the participants, including land developers, housing developers, and condominium buyers. In this study, we estimate development profits shared by the participants. Also, the estimations are performed by differentiated localities. The results show that most of development profits are acquired by condominium buyers, while land developers get a little of them. It differs to the common belief that land and housing developers take most of development profits. The amounts of total profits depend on the characteristics of local market, including the size of a locality and accessibility to Seoul. Based on these findings, we can conclude that a policy alternative to lower the pre-sale price of a new condominium could result in transferring profits from condominium builders to condominium buyers. The excess development profits obtained by condominium buyers would be windfall income. Therefore, the pre-sale price related policy could only strengthen speculative behaviors of home buyers.