북한의 급변사태 및 대량탈북에 따른 경찰 대응방안 연구

남재성(Nam Jae Sung),이창무(Lee Chang Moo) 한국공안행정학회 2013 한국공안행정학회보 Vol.22 No.1

국내외를 불문하고 김정은 체제에 대한 심각한 우려가 제기되고 있는 현실에 비추어 볼 때 가까운 장래에 북한의 급격한 정세변화와 대한민국에 대한 잠재적 위해요소의 등장은 우리가 반드시 겪게 될 현실이고 반드시 막아야할 문제라는 점에서 개방된 사고로 모든 가능성을 염두하고 대책을 수립해야 한다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 국가 차원뿐만 아니라 세부적으로 경찰 차원에서, 김정은 체제 이후 예상되는 북한 내부의 권력투쟁과 그에 따른 사회적 혼란 및 잠재적 위해요소, 그리고 그로 인한 북한 주민의 대량 탈북사태와 국내 유입 등 치안과 안보위해 상황을 다각도로 검토해보고 무엇보다도 경찰의 대응방안을 중심으로 대책을 마련하고자 하였다. 연구결과 여러 위협 변수들에도 불구하고 현 상태에서 당장 급격한 변화와 북한 정권의 붕괴 가능성은 높지 않다고 보인다. 하지만 북한체제의 특성상, 북한의 급변사태가 언제든 발생할 수 있다는 측면에서 항상 예의주시해야 할 것이며, 경찰은 북한의 급변사태에 따라 대량 탈북사태가 발생했을 경우 신속히 대응할 수 있는 즉응적 대비태세를 갖추어야 할 것이다. 특히, 이에 대한 대비태세는 대량 탈북 등 급변사태 발생이전의 사전적 역량강화 방안, 평시상황이지만 준 급변사태 발생단계에서 나타날 수 있는 대량 탈북사태 대응 방안, 급변사태 발생시의 대량 탈북사태 대응 방안 등으로 구분하여 수립하는 것이 타당할 것이다. 따라서 향후 보안경찰은 이 세 가지의 대응방안을 중심으로 조직적, 인력적 역량을 강화하고 대응을 위한 세부 시나리오를 마련하는 등 대량탈북 사태와 같은 북한의 급변사태에 신속히 대응할 수 있는 철저한 준비태세를 확립해야 할 것이다. In the midst of present situation where a serious concern is being raised at the national and international level on Kim Jong-un regime, it is inevitable that we will certainly experience North Korea's sudden changes in the state of affairs and the appearance of potentially dangerous elements towards South Korea against which we must defend. Accordingly, we must develop measures of responses for every possibility with open mind. The purpose of this study, accordingly, was to extensively examine not only at the national level but also at the specific level of the police the North Korean power struggle and according social disorder, potentially dangerous elements, massive defections of North Koreans and their inflow to South Korea and situations that present risk to public order and national security in order to develop various measures of responses centering on the response of the police. The study result shows that in spite of numerous variables of threat, the possibility of immediate and sudden changes in North Korea and the collapse of its regime does not appear to be high. According to the characteristics of the North Korea regime, however, there is a need for constant and close watch in the sense that sudden changes could occur at anytime in North Korea. Additionally, it was found that it would be necessary for the police to be equipped with instant readiness for swiftly responding to any massive defections of North Koreans according to sudden changes in North Korea. It was revealed that it would be appropriate to develop measures of responses by dividing them into a preemptive measure of reinforcing capabilities prior to the occurrence of sudden changes such as massive defections, a response measure against massive defections that could occur at the stage of semi-sudden changes during peacetime situation and a response measure against massive defections that occurs at the occurrence of sudden changes. Accordingly, it would be necessary for the security police to establish through readiness for swiftly responding to sudden changes in North Korea such as massive defections such as reinforcing organizational and personnel capabilities and develop specific scenarios of response centering on the three types of measures of responses mentioned above.

문재인 정부 부동산정책의 비판적 평가

이창무 ( Lee Chang-moo ) 한국행정연구원 2020 한국행정연구 Vol.29 No.4

Even though Moon Jae-in govenrment introduced dozens of policies to control the housing market, housing price in the Seoul Metropolitan Area has kept increasing rapidly. The housing policy framework of the Moon's government resembles that of Roh Moo-Hyun govenrment, which was focused on the strong regulations to restrict redevelopments in the Gangnam area and multi-house ownership. The Moon's government has shared the failures with the Roh's governemnt, too. One noticeable difference between two governments is that during the Roh’s administration period, the price surge in Seoul was spread into wider Gyunggi province promptly. while it was retained in Seoul during the first half of the Moon's. For now, Gyeonggi province is however suffering from soaring housing price following Seoul. This difference in trends provides important clues to understand the housing market conditions during the Moon's government. This study attempts to assess the housing policies of Moon Jae-In govenrment in the comparative framework with those of other governments, espeically focused on Roh Moo- hyun government. The final results indicate that unitended side effects have been stronger than the designated effects.

활성산소 측정 데이터를 위한 모바일 기반의 U헬스 시스템 설계 및 구현

이창무,오승교,최덕재,Lee, Chang Moo,Oh, Seung Kyo,Choi, Deok Jai 한국스마트미디어학회 2012 스마트미디어저널 Vol.1 No.4

In recent years the combination of IT and BT for U-Healthcare Medical Services has attracted popular attention as an alternative for solving health problems due to aging issue. Active oxygen as free radicals causes unstable state of the body resulting to other disease on which approximate 90% of the diseases are associated with active oxygen. The severity is even higher along with increasing age. Therefore, there is a need for systematic management of active oxygen saturation for the elderly and chronic patients. In this paper, the data about active oxygen measurements from the body measurement is sent to the data storage of medical facilities by the service provider. Medical information is measured by devices provided complying with the standard, support and information using Bluetooth communication. Users can check their health status themselves using the proposed system through 3G/4G mobile devices like smart phone to medical institutions in which the smart phone act as a gateway for medical data transferred from patient to medical institutions and vice versa. Users can get and experience a diagnosis and effective U-Environmental Health Services from Medical institutions anywhere using the proposed built system.

TPL을 이용한 일단위 실거래 가격지수 산정방법에 관한 연구

류강민(Kang-Min Ryu),한제선(Je-Sun Han),정상준(Sang-Jun Jung),이창무(Chang-Moo Lee) 한국주택학회 2017 주택연구 Vol.25 No.2

Since the apartment sales price index using repeated sale data was introduced in 2009, the multi-family house price index was released in 2016. The two-type houses have good characteristics for making indices. For example they have lots of transaction data and lots of stock with standardized type for quality control. However, detached houses in Korea are not supplied in a standardized form and it is difficult to identify individual housing characteristics. Apart from this there is a lack of transaction data to generate sale price index of a detached house since the domestic housing market has been dominated by apartment. The other issue associated with the housing price index is whether the price index could reflect an underlying demand of financial asset such as a stock market. In order to estimate an underlying asset of capital market like the KOSPI index, a daily index should be considered so that the property investors who desire to hedge their investment can timely respond on the market change. Unfortunately, the house price index has been calculated in a monthly base due to a lack of transaction data. This study proposes the ‘TPL method’ of Radar Logic company, which calculates indices even when data exists in a small number and produces the index on a daily basis.

반복매매모형을 활용한 아파트 매매가격지수

이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee ),김병욱 ( Byeong Uk Kim ),이현 ( Hyun Lee ) 한국부동산분석학회 2002 부동산학연구 Vol.8 No.2

Stock price index type of housing price indices were commonly used in Korea. However, this type of indices are not suitable for Korean housing market experiencing rapid changes in stock including both new constructions and demolitions. Especially, the recent Korean housing market has experienced substantial changes in housing characteristics. Basically, the stock price index type of housing price index requires a constant survey stock over time in order to maintain the comparability in total housing values. However, the constant stock concept is hard to accept in the Korean housing market accompanying with rapid increase and qualitative changes in housing stock. An alternative is a hedonic price index. However, the basic data requirements for the application of the hedonic model cannot be fulfilled in the Korean housing market where actual sale information is mostly unknown. In order to overcome this structural deficiency, the price indices in Korea are based o periodical price survey with the help of real estate brokers. If we accept the assumption that the whole condominium units belonging to a basic survey unit (an area type in an condominium complex) share the same housing characteristics and the surveyed price, we can use the repeat sale index concept with some modifications. The persistent price survey generates a perfect form of repeat sales data. This paper proposes a practical method for the application of repeat sale index to condominium sales price indexing.

가구주의 탄생 코호트 효과를 고려한 주택수요 분석모형

이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee ),김미경 ( Mi Kyoung Kim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2013 부동산학연구 Vol.19 No.3

There exist various arguments about future housing demand in the Korean housing market which is facing with aging population along with up-coming retirement of the baby boom generation. Although the baby boom generation has been a dominant force driving the housing market, they experienced both the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s and the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. Due to their distinctive experiences during their wealth formation ages, many scholars suspect that their housing demand and preference would differ from the earlier generations who formed their wealth during surging economic development period. This paper develops a new form of housing demand estimation model to overcome the limitations of the Mankiw-Weil model and to sort out the birth cohort effect from age effect on housing demand. The model is based on a non-linear form, and applies the non-linear least square estimation procedure for the estimation of the empirical model. The empirical estimation results show that the baby boom generation holds low standards of housing consumption than other generations. It implies that there would be extra decrease in housing demand when the baby boom generation is getting aged, comparing with the aging effect of the earlier generations.

Quantile Regression을 이용한 반복매매지수 산정에 관한 연구

이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee ),류강민 ( Kang Min Ryu ),김지연 ( Ji Yeon Kim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2013 부동산학연구 Vol.19 No.4

This study develops a repeat sales price index using quantile regrssion. Quantile regression(QR) allows us to mitigate the problem of outliers comparing with the OLS estimation commonly used. This advantage can be highligted when we need to generate a price index for a thin market where there are not enough samples. In order to verify the effect, we constructed price indices for four different size groups of apartment condominiums in Seoul. A bigger group has a smaller sample size. The estimation results show that the quantile regression method is effective to smooth the peak points in indices generated by the OLS estimation. This stabilizing effect is obvious in the case of large size apartment condominiums with fewer samples. We chose three evaluation indices to compare the performance of the OLS and QR indices including statistical reliability index(mean standard error), stability index newly developed, and sensitivity index(signal-to-noise ratio). Overall evaluation suggests that QR indices allow us much gain in stability without much loss in statistical reliability comparing with OLS indices.

보증금 처리방식에 따른 오피스 투자수익률 비교분석

이창무 ( Lee Chang-moo ),정유선 ( Jeong Yuseon ) 한국부동산분석학회 2018 부동산학연구 Vol.24 No.3

In the Korean real estate market, distinctive rental contracts including Pure Monthly Rent, Monthly Rent with Variable Deposit(MRVD) and Chonsei have co-existed. Conventionally the deposit in the office market is assumed to be put in the bank, and the landlord gets interest income from it in the cost of corresponding monthly rent. However, the deposit is used to reduce the equity investment, that is, as leverage and no interest income is produced from it. Because of this misconception of the role of the deposit, the conventional way of calculating earnings rate can be misleading. Therefore, an acceptable way of calculating the rate of returns is required for the distinctive Korean office market. This study examines five methodologies differentiating the role of the deposit and the base rate of deposit considering the function and the portion of deposit in MRVD. And then we apply the five methodologies to the empirical comparisons using the data of Korea Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. The empirical results show that the interest seeking methodology is likely to underestimate the actual investment performance. Interestingly the rate of return based on the leverage treatment of the deposit is most similar to the internal rate of return. This is one evidence that the way of earnings rate calculation with the treatment of deposit reveals actual investment performance in a better way.

공공지원민간임대 연계형 정비사업의 활성화를 위한 용적률 인센티브에 관한 연구

이창무 ( Lee Chang-moo ),송영선 ( Song Young-sun ) 한국부동산분석학회 2020 부동산학연구 Vol.26 No.4

The redevelopment linked to the public support private rental housing, which has changed since New Stay in the past, is not actively progressing. This is because publicity has been strengthened compared to the past, but sufficient incentives are not provided. Therefore, this study attempted to analyze the level of incentives required to revitalize the business in terms of increasing the floor area ratio. To this end, analysis parameters such as construction cost to real sale price ratio, rental housing sale price to real sale price ratio, rental housing supply ratio were set by referring to the cases of the ongoing redevelopment linked to the public support private rental housing. The minimum required incentive level and the change trend were analyzed by increasing the floor area ratio to keep the same profitability or alloted charges of shareholders between general redevelopment and the case of linking the public support system. The change in the floor area ratio incentive level was more sensitive to the rental housing sale price to real sale price ratio compared to the rental housing supply ratio. Especially it was found that under the current system, the project is difficult to proceed outside of the Seoul.

반복매매모형을 이용한 아파트 실거래지수 운영특성 분석

이창무 ( Chang Moo Lee ),김용경 ( Yong Kyung Kim ),배익민 ( Ik Min Bae ) 한국부동산분석학회 2007 부동산학연구 Vol.13 No.2

Most of the price indices for apartments in Korea have been based on the stock price index model using offering prices for a set of survey units. However, seller`s reporting of the real transaction price was mandated by law in 2006. In order to use the real transaction data newly obtainable, a new type of price indices are required. The basic choices would be between a hedonic price index and a repeat sales index. It is commonly recognized that the hedonic price index requires an extensive data set of housing and locational characteristics, while it can generate a quality controlled index. On the other hand, the repeat sales index is inefficient in using data, since it use repeatedly transacted sales data only, while it is the best in quality control. The standardized characteristics of apartments in Korea allow us to define a set of similar units as a same house. This feature of apartments allow us to overcome the inefficiency problem contained in the repeat sales index. We developed an repeat sales index using real transaction data based on some relaxed definitions of a same house. The developed repeat sales index shows earlier and more sensitive movements of prices than the conventional index.