거시경제 변수를 활용한 주택담보대출 연체율에 미치는 결정요인에 관한 연구

이석원(Lee, Seok-Won),황윤구(Hwang, Yun-Goo),윤영의(Yoon, Young-Eui) 한국부동산정책학회 2017 不動産政策硏究 Vol.18 No.3

In the second quarter of 2017, the size of the household debts has been reaching 1,388 trillion won. And, because the size of the housing mortgage loans has been closing in upon 560 trillion won, around 40.3% has been crowded in the housing demand funds. Regarding this, there is no choice but for the influence on the entire economy to be high according to the increase of the delinquency rate in case the economy worsens or the recession continues. This study intends to suggest the implications regarding the housing mortgage loans in the long-term viewpoint through the influence evaluations of the macroeconomic variables related to such housing mortgage loan delinquencies. The macroeconomic variables that were used were the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate (TOD), the price index of the average buying and selling of the real apartment transactions (APT_PRICE), the new housing mortgage loan interest rate (HINTEREST), the index of the industrial products (IIP), the amount of money in circulation (M2), the monetary amount of the housing mortgage loans (HML), the amount of the apartment transactions (TRADE), and these were unfolded in the viewpoint of the relationship with the real estate market and the currency policy. As a result of the unit root test, it appeared that, regarding the amount of the apartment transactions, the time series raw data had been maintaining the stability. And it was able to find out that the data of the remaining variables, including the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate (TOD), had been getting stabilized through the primary difference. Because, as a result of a co-integration test, at least 6 variables possess the linear, the selection of the model used the VEC model, and, regarding the optimal differential, the 1st model was selected based on the SC (Schwarz Criterion) value. As a result of taking a look at the granger causality relationship, it appeared that the variables that had the influences on the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate were the price index of the average buying and selling of the real apartment transactions (APT_PRICE), the new housing mortgage loan interest rate (HINTEREST), the index of the industrial products (IIP), the amount of money in circulation (M2), and the amount of the apartment transactions (TRADE). As a result of analyzing the VECM (Vector error correction Model) short-run equilibrium relationship, it appeared that the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate were influenced by the index of the average price of the buying and selling of the real transactions of the apartments and by the index of industrial products. As a result of a reaction to a shock, the positive (+) correlation appeared between the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate and the amount of the transactions of the apartments (TRADE) and, also, the interest rate of the new housing mortgage loan (HINTEREST). Eventually, regarding the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate, if the interest rate goes up, right away, an increase of the delinquency rate takes place. And, it appeared that, if the monetary amount of the housing mortgage loan becomes big, the delinquency rate decreases. This is because the delinquency rate has the influences on the incomes and others of the like, it can be under the control of the interest rate policies. The meaning of this research is that it investigated about the relationship with the housing mortgage loan delinquency rates by considering the indices in the real estate market and the currency policies at the same time. And, it is that, in the condition in which the scale of the housing mortgage loan having become big at present, raising the interest rate can aggravate the confusion more in the market. As a result, with regard to the proceeding with the real estate policies, the prudent and macroscopic approach is needed. And the researches on the relationships of the indices will be needed more in the macroscopic viewpoint.

침투력이 터널의 지반반응곡선에 미치는 영향

이석원,정종원,남석우,이인모,Lee Seok-Won,Jung Jong-Won,Nam Seok-Woo,Lee In-Mo 한국지반공학회 2005 한국지반공학회논문집 Vol.21 No.3

지하수위 아래에 터널이 굴착되면, 지하수가 터널내로 유입되면서 터널 단면에 침투력이 작용하게 된다. 지반반응 곡선은 내압과 터널 내공단면의 변위 관계로 정의되기 때문에 이러한 침투력의 영향을 크게 받게 된다. 본 연구에서는 건조상태 및 침투력을 고려할 경우의 지반반응곡선의 이론식을 각각 유도하였다. 또한, 유도된 이론식은 수치해석을 통하여 검증되었다. 다양한 지하수위 조건에서의 지보계 설치를 고려하여 지보재특성곡선과 함께 지반반응곡선을 연구하였다. 결국, 본 연구에서 유도된 지반반응곡선의 이론식은 합리적인 설계를 위한 적절한 지보계 설치시기 및 지보재 강성 등을 결정하는데 이용될 수 있다. When a tunnel is excavated below groundwater table, the groundwater flows into the excavated wall of tunnel and seepage forces are acting on the tunnel wall. The ground reaction curve is defined as the relationship between internal pressure and radial displacement of tunnel wall. Therefore, the ground reaction curve is significantly affected by seepage forces. In this study, the theoretical solutions of ground reaction curves were derived for both the dry condition and the seepage forces. The theoretical solutions derived were validated by numerical analysis. The ground reaction curves with the support characteristic curve were also analyzed in various conditions of groundwater table. Finally, the theoretical solutions of the ground reaction curve derived in this study can be utilized easily to determine the appropriate time of support systems, the stiffness of support system and so forth for the reasonable design.

터널 설계 및 시공기술의 발전

이석원,박의섭,김동규,Lee, Seok-Won,Park, Ui-Seop,Kim, Dong-Gyu 한국터널지하공간학회 2008 자연, 터널 그리고 지하공간 Vol.10 No.2

"우리 세대의 문제, 다음 세대로 넘기지 말아야" - 스웨덴 포르스마르크 방폐장

이석원,최한성,Lee, Seok-Won,Choe, Han-Seong 한국원자력산업회의 2005 원자력산업 Vol.25 No.12

밤시럽사용으로 원가를 절감한다-시럽 및 충전물의 밤 시럽 대체법

이석원,Lee, Seok-Won 대한제과협회 1996 베이커리 Vol.6 No.-

수치해석 기법을 이용한 복개 터널구조물의 거동에 관한 연구

이석원,이규필,배규진,Lee, Seok-Won,Lee, Gyu-Phil,Bae, Gyu-Jin 한국터널지하공간학회 2003 터널기술 Vol.5 No.1

In the deign of cut and cover tunnel, the structural analysis such as rigid frame analysis has been used for its simplicity and convenience. The structural analysis, however, can not consider the geological and geotechnical factors such as soil arching effect. In this study, the dominant factors influencing the behavior of cut and cover tunnel such as interface element, slope of excavation plane, distance between slope and tunnel lining, and location of slope of covered soil, were investigated by the numerical analysis to develop the analysis technique and design technology. Based on the results, the variation of bending moment, shear stress, axial force and displacements were evaluated and analyzed for each factor. 현재 복개 터널구조물의 해석 및 설계에는 구조공학적 모델링 기법이 널리 적용되고 있으나, 이러한 구조공학적 모델링 기법은 지형적인 영향인자 및 soil arching 등과 같은 지반공학적 측면의 영향인자를 고려하기에 많은 어려움이 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 복개 터널구조물의 합리적이고 경제적인 설계를 위하여 복개 터널구조물의 거동에 영향을 미치는 인자로써 콘크리트 라이닝과 성토체의 계면요소, 굴착사면의 경사, 이격거리 및 성토사면 등을 고려하여 지반공학적 모델링 기법을 이용한 수치해석 수행하였다. 이의 결과를 토대로 각 영향인자 변화에 따른 복개 터널구조물의 역학적 거동특성을 분석하였다.

선진국 방폐장 - 최적의 자연 환경과 국민 의식

이석원,Lee, Seok-Won 한국원자력산업회의 2005 원자력산업 Vol.25 No.12

함수 발생기용 IC를 이용한 레이저 패턴 제어기 구현

이석원(Seok-Won Lee),이태진(Tea-Jin Lee),남윤석(Yun-Seok Nam) 대한전기학회 2003 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2003 No.7

물류 효율화를 위한 LSP 와 Machine Learning 을 활용한 텍스트 분석 방법 연구

이석원(Lee Seok Won),현병언(Hyun Byung-En) 한국통신학회 2017 한국통신학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2017 No.1

`대동아`공간의 창출 ―전시기 일본의 지정학과 공간담론―

이석원 ( Lee Seok Won ) 역사문제연구소 2008 역사문제연구 Vol.12 No.1

The primary purpose of this article is to examine how Asian discourses in Imperial Japan conceptualized Asian space by investigating Japanese geopolitical discourses. The outbreak of the 1931 Manchurian Incident and Japan`s withdrawal from the League of the Nations were turning points through which Japan was confronted with `world-space`. Japan`s double stances of criticizing Western racism and at the same time maintaining dominance in the Asian region faced a dramatic challenge. This also meant that Japanese intellectuals were now in a position to create new spatial theories in their constructing an `anti-Western East Asian empire`. It was a group of geographers at Kyoto Imperial University who most actively responded to this question of reconstructing world-space through anti-Western epistemology. Influenced by the notion of `overcoming the modern`, first addressed by the Kyoto School of Philosophy, these geographers advocated anti-Western Imperial-Way geopolitics under the leadership of Komaki Saneshige. Contending that unlike the West that they believed to be collapsing due to its spiritual decadence and modern science, East Asian space had inherited nature-friendly and harmonious components, they insisted that Imperial-Way be the only spiritual structure that would make possible the unification of East Asian space. They also argued that an agriculture-centered economy based on village community would be the ideal form for a self-sufficient East Asian society. On the contrary, Tokyo-based geopoliticians were mapping out a new form of spatial theory in which geopolitics was closely associated with modernization. This so-called rationalist geopolitics led by Ezawa Joji and Royama Masamichi attempted to establish a community of destiny that they believed to be a core concept of `the East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere` by restructuring East Asian space. For Ezawa and Royama, modernization was a new living form that would provide a new stream of experiences for various ethnic groups in Asia who had maintained a nature-deterministic form of life based on the agriculture-centered economy. It was also an important concept of subjectivity formation that would enable colonial subjects to be voluntarily transformed into imperial subjects since they thought that modernization would fundamentally change the existing the empire-colony power structure in Japanese empire.