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강남구와 주변지역 거래량의 장·단기 동조화에 관한 연구
윤종주,최민섭 韓國住宅學會 2014 주택연구 Vol.22 No.1
본 연구는 서울시 강남구와 주변지역을 중심으로 거래량의 장·단기 선도성 및 지역간 동조화가 존재하는지를 밝혀보고, 지역별 파급효과를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 첫째, 금융위기 전·후 모두 금리와 지역별 거래량 간에는 장기적인 균형관계를 이루면서 추세를 공유하고 있었으며, 지역 간의 거래량도 장기적인 동조화가 존재하였다. 둘째, 금리는 단기적으로 금융위기 전에는 지역별 거래량에 선행하면서 선도성이 존재하였으나 금융위기 이후에는 거래량이 금리에 선행하는 것으로 나타나 금융위기 전과 후가 다른 모습을 보였다. 반면에 장기적으로 금리는 금융위기 전·후 균형관계는 있었으나, 거래량에 대하여 선도성은 존재하지 않았다. 셋째, 단기적으로 강남구의 거래량은 금융위기 전에는 다른 지역의 거래량에 선행하였고, 금융위기 후에는 서초구, 송파구, 강동구, 양천구의 거래량에 선행하는 것으로 나타났다. 장기적으로는 강남구의 거래량은 금융위기 전·후 모두 다른 지역의 거래량에 선도성이 존재하지 않았다. 연구결과 시사점은, 장기추세가 형성되었을 때 조정효과가 맨 처음 선도하는 지역이 있고 그 지역이 다른 지역에 파급효과를 주는 것이 아니라 조정되는 속도가 장기간에 걸쳐 상호간에 영향을 준다는 결론을 내릴 수 있다. 따라서 강남구 중심의 주택정책은 장기적 관점에서는 의미가 없다는 것을 정책적 시사점을 제공한다. This study was conducted to identify the long-term and short-term leadership in trading volumes and the synchronization between areas and to analyze the ripple effects in each area. As a results of analysis, firstly, long-term equilibrium was maintained and trends were shared between interest rates and trading volumes and there exited the long-term synchronization in the trading volumes in each area, before and after the financial crisis. Secondly, even though there existed a leadership as the interest rates preceded regional trading volumes in the short run before the financial crisis, trading volumes preceded interest rates after the financial crisis, which showed the different aspects before and after the financial crisis. On the contrary, even though the interest rates had equilibrium before and after the financial crisis in the long run, the leadership according to the trading volumes didn't exist. Thirdly, short-term trading volumes in Gangnam-gu preceded those in other areas before the financial crisis and preceded those in Seocho-gu, Songpa-gu, Gangdong-gu and Yangcheon-gu after the financial crisis. In the long run, trading volume in Gangnam-gu didn't show the leadership in trading volumes in other areas before and after the financial crisis. Implications of this study show that the adjustment effects are identified first at leading area when long-term trends are formed and that area doesn't give ripple effects to other areas, but the adjusted speed gives influences to each other over the long period. Therefore, a political implication is provided that the housing policy focusing on Gangnam-gu has no meaning from long-term perspectives.
Coupled Storm Surge and Wave Simulations for the Southern Coast of Korea
윤종주,전기천 한국해양과학기술원 2015 Ocean science journal Vol.50 No.1
An integrated model system was developed to apply surge-wave coupled simulations to the southern coast of Korea during Typhoon Sanba in 2012. Numerical experiments were carried out to examine the effects of land-dissipated wind on storm surges and the influence of wave-surge coupled simulations on storm surges and surface waves. These numerical experiments used a finite volume ocean model, FVCOM, coupled with a wave model SWAVE. Due to the complex geometry of the coastal area investigated, a high-resolution terrain-following unstructured grid was employed. Atmospheric forcing was generated by a planetary boundary layer model, which was revised by incorporating the effect of the land’s roughness on the typhoon wind. A detailed comparison shows generally good agreement between the measured and simulated wind, surge, and waves. In particular, improved results have been found for the simulation of storm winds and surges when considering the effect of land-dissipated wind. In addition, clearly improved results for storm surges were obtained when adding the coupling effect between waves and surges. The results show a maximum contribution of ~40% by the waveinduced surge to the peak surge height along the coasts. The mean rate of error for peak surge heights decreased from 29.6% to 21.3% after considering the effects of wind dissipation, and decreased again to 17.9% when adding the effects of the waves. These results imply that the effect of wind dissipation caused by land roughness and waves should be taken into account when determining storm surge heights. The results also show the effects of wave-current coupling influences the generation of waves. However, the magnitude of this coupling effect on wave heights was found to be relatively insignificant.