불확실성하의 선형계획법에 의한 목재수확계획 - 춘천관리소내 잣나무 임분을 (林分) 중심으로 -

원현규,우종춘 ( Hyun Kyu Won,Jong Choon Woo ) 한국산림경제학회 1996 산림경제연구 Vol.4 No.1

임업생산비통계를 이용한 연도별 밤 생산량의 기술효율성 평가

원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),전주현 ( Ju Hyeon Jeon ),김철우 ( Chul Woo Kim ),전현선 ( Hyun Sun Jeon ),손영모 ( Yeung Mo Son ),이욱 ( Uk Lee ) 한국임학회 2016 한국산림과학회지 Vol.105 No.2

본 연구는 우리나라 연도별 밤 생산량에 대하여 기술효율성을 평가하기 위한 목적으로 수행하였고 기술효율성은 일정량의 비용을 투입하여 얻을 수 있는 최대 생산가능량을 의미한다. 기술효율성 분석을 위하여 산출방향 BCC 모형을 이용하였고 기술효율성 증감의 원인을 분석하기 위하여 단위당 투입비용, 생산량, 조수입, 순수입, 시장가격등의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 연구자료는 2008년부터 2014년까지 7년간의 임산물생산비통계를 활용하였다. 연구 결과, 2008년, 2009년, 2010년은 최대 생산가능량과 실제생산량이 ha당 1,568 kg, 1,745 kg, 1,534 kg로 동일하게 나 타나 기술효율성이 모두 1.00로 평가되었다. 그러나 2011년부터 2014년까지는 실제생산량이 ha당 1,270 kg 1,047 kg, 1,258 kg, 1,488 kg이고 최대 생산가능량은 1,524 kg, 1,467 kg, 1,635 kg, 1,637 kg으로 분석되어 기술효율성이 0.83, 0.71, 0.75, 0.91로 평가되었다. 기술효율성은 2012년이 0.71로 가장 낮은 것으로 평가되었고 2013년부터 기술효율성 값이 점차 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 기술효율성 증감의 요인은 생산량과 시장가격의 관계성이 있으며 r = -0.821 (p<0.05)로 부(-)의 상관관계를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 단위 면적당 최대 생산가능량 수준은 하한 1,488 kg과 상한 1,745 kg사이에 있으며 평균 1,584 kg인 것으로 나타났다. This study was conducted to evaluate the technical efficiency of Annual Chestnut production in South Korea. In this study, technical efficiency is the maximum possible production for which a certain amount of costs is inputted. For analysis on the technical efficiency we used output-oriented BCC Model, and then we analyzed correlation among input costs, production, gross income, net income, and market price per unit in order to determine the cause of variation in the technical efficiency. As study materials, we used statistics for the forestry production costs for 7 years from 2008 to 2014. The study results showed that the maximum possible production and actual production in 2008, 2009, and 2010 were 1,568 kg, 1,745 kg, and 1,534 kg by hectares in the order which were the same values. Consequently, the technical efficiency of those was all evaluated as 1.00. On the other hand, actual production from 2011 to 2014 was 1,270 kg 1,047 kg, 1,258 kg, and 1,488 kg by hectares in the order and the maximum possible production was 1,524 kg, 1,467 kg, 1,635 kg, and 1,637 kg by hectares in the analysis. From those values, the technical efficiency was evaluated in the following order: 0.83, 0.71, 0.75, 0.91. The lowest value of the technical efficiency was 0.71 in 2012, and the values of this increased gradually since 2013. It is indicated that the cause of variation in the technical efficiency was related to the relationship between production and market price, and there was a negative correlation with r = -0.82 (p<0.05). The level of maximum available production per unit area was between 1,488kg in lower limit and 1,745 kg in upper limit, and the average was turned out as 1,548 kg.

포트폴리오 기법을 이용한 단기소득임산물의 최적 생산관리 전략 -주요 유실수를 중심으로-

원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),전준헌 ( Jun Heon Jeon ),이성연 ( Seong Youn Lee ),주린원 ( Rin Won Joo ) 한국산림과학회 2015 한국산림과학회지 Vol.104 No.2

This study applied the portfolio approach as a means to provide decision-making information for the establishment of the optimal production plan for non-timber products. The target items of non-timber forest product were Chestnut, Jujube, Walnut and Astringent Persimmon. The data used in this study were the annual report of forestry production cost survey which contains the annual production, annual gross income, and annual product cost from 2008 to 2013. These data were used to calculate the expected return of non-timber forest product. The objective function in the portfolio models was to minimize the expected return volatility, called risk and the constrain was to achieve the minimum expected return rate. Results indicated that the production ratio of the nuts and fruits in 2013 was 7% for Chestnut, 20% for Jujube, 5% for Walnut and 68% for Astringent Persimmon. Furthermore, portfolio presented that the production ratio was 10% for Chestnut, 9% for Jujube, 3% for Walnut and 78% for Astringent Persimmon in the near future. The cause was analyzed due to maintain stable production and income of Astringent Persimmon and Chestnut. Meanwhile, the revenue of Walnuts and Jujube was in great variation with relatively higher revenues.

제주시험림 산림식생의 군락분포에 관한 연구 -한남시험림을 중심으로-

원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),전철현 ( Chul Hyun Jeon ),김하송 ( Ha Song Kim ),조영준 ( Yeong Jun Cho ) 한국도서학회 2016 韓國島嶼硏究 Vol.28 No.1

2015년 8월부터 12월까지 제주 한남시험림을 중심으로 현지 답사를 통하여 식생조사를 실시하였다. 한남시험림의 식생구조를 조사하기 위하여 식생 방형조사구 42개를 설정한 후 현존식생도와 군락의 분포현황을 분석하였다. 조사된 삼림식생은 입지의 지형적 특성에 따라 인공조림, 낙엽활엽수림, 상록침엽수림, 침활활엽수림(상록), 침활활엽수림(낙엽), 혼합활엽수림, 기타 식생으로 나타났다. 이 지역 일대의 산지삼림식생은 낙엽활엽수림 3개 군락, 상록침엽수림 1개 군락, 침활활엽수림(상록) 3개 군락, 침활활엽수림(낙엽) 3개 군락, 상록활엽수림 2개 군락, 혼합활엽수림 2개 군락, 기타 식생 2개 군락으로 한남시험림 일대 분포하는 삼림식생은 총 20개 군락으로 조사되었다. 조사된 주요 군락의 분포 비율을 보면 산지낙엽활엽수림의 99.7%는 개서어나무와 졸참나무가 분포하고 있고, 인공조림은 삼나무군락이 전체의 98.0%를, 상록활엽수림은 붉가시나무군락이 전체의 85.8%, 산지침활활엽수림은 곰솔-개서어나무군락이 전체의 55.8%를, 혼합활엽수림은 붉가시나무-개서어나무군락이 전체의 64.6%를, 기타 식생은 채종원이 전체의 97.8%를 차지하고 있다. 2015년 한남시험림 상관식생을 토대로 한남시험림의 10년, 30년, 50년 후의 임상별 상관식생 변화를 예상하였다. 인공조림, 기타 식생과 상록활엽수림의 경우 상관식생 변화 없이 원래의 산림으로 그대로 유지되는 결과가 예측되었고, 침활활엽수림(상록)은 50년 후에는 상록활엽수림으로 변화가 예측되었다. 침활활엽수림(낙엽)은 낙엽활엽수림으로의 변화가 예측되었다. 결론적으로 한남시험림 일대의 산림식생은 개서어나무, 삼나무, 붉가시나무, 졸참나무, 구실잣밤나무 등 소수의 수종들이 최상층부의 우점종으로 구성되어 있으며, 이들 종들과 관련된 군락들은 식생천이 및 기후적 요인들에 의하여 군락 대체가 매우 빠르게 일어날 것으로 보인다. 따라서 이 지역 일대 잠재 자연 식생의 주요종은 점차적으로 상록활엽수림과 혼합활엽수림의 분포비율이 증가되는 것으로 예측되었다. This research was carried out from August to December 2015 to figure out the mountain forest vegetation of Jeju Hannam Experimental Forest``s vegetation. Mountain forest vegetation is subdivided into Plantation, Deciduous broad-leaved forest, Evergreen coniferous forest, Larix forest(Evergreen), Larix forest(Deciduous), Evergreen broad-leaved forest, Mixed deciduous forest, and other vegetation areas. These other areas include 18 communities of mountain forest vegetation and 2 communities of other areas vegetation. In total, 20 communities were researched; the mountain forest vegetation classified according to the physiognomy classification hold 4 communities of Plantation, 3 communities of the Deciduous broad-leaved forest, 1 community of the Evergreen coniferous forest, 3 communities of the Larix forest(Evergreen), 3 communities of the Larix forest(Deciduous), 2 communities of the Evergreen broad-leaved forest, 2 communities of the Mixed deciduous forest, and 2 from the other vegetation areas. As for the distribution rate of surveyed main communities, the Carpinus tschonoskii and Quercus serrata communities account for 99.7 percent of deciduous broad leaved forest. The Cryptomeria japonica community takes up 98.0 percent of plantation and the Quercus acuta community holds 85.8 percent of Evergreen broad-leaved forest. In conclusion, minority species consisting of the Carpinus tschonoskii, Cryptomeria japonica, Quercus acuta, Quercus serrata, and Castanopsis sieboldii are distributed as dominant species of the uppermost part of Hannam Experimental Forest. In addition, because of the vegetation succession and climate factors, numerous colonies formed by the two communities are expected to be replaced by the climax species of the Evergreen broad-leaved forest and the Mixed deciduous forest.

제주도 부속 무인도서의 산림자원관리를 위한 자연환경 특성과 상대적 중요도 평가

원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),정성철 ( Sung Cheol Jung ),김은미 ( Eun Mi Kim ),서연옥 ( Yeon Ok Seo ),권진오 ( Jin O Kwon ),좌종헌 ( Jong Heon Choa ) 한국산림과학회 2014 한국산림과학회지 Vol.103 No.4

This study was conducted to analyze the ecological environment of the 53 uninhabitable islands ofJeju for the management formulation. The result of the Pearson correlation analysis were 0.647(p<0.01) forherbs, 0.585(p<0.01) for trees and 0.762 (p<0.01) for animals which means that there is a high correlationbetween the size of the forests in the uninhabitable islands and the species diversity of herbs, trees and animals. For the regression modeling to predict the forest area, the R value was 0.899 and the R2 was 0.803 with 79.7%statistical significance. This study also classified the uninhabited islands based on its forest area into two classes,with a forests area of 0.5ha and with a forest of approximately 12ha. The importance value of the biodiversityin the uninhabited islands was also evaluated using DEA and the islands with higher importance, namelyDMU14(0.941), DMU36(0.964), DMU44(1.000) and DMU45(0.903) were recommended to be managed. It wasobserved that uninhabited islands with forests had a mean importance value of 0.439 which is higher ascompared to the uninhabited islands without forests with 0.096. This verified that there is close relationshipbetween forest and biodiversity.

국내 장기목재공급 잠재력 예측을 위한 퍼지선형계획법의 적용

원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),김영환 ( Young Hwan Kim ),이경학 ( Kyeong Hak Lee ),장광민 ( Kwang Min Jang ) 한국산림과학회 2010 한국산림과학회지 Vol.99 No.6

The objective of this study was to estimate potential of domestic long-term wood supply by using fuzzy linear programming (FLP). In order to construct a numerical formula model, maximization of total timber production was used for the objective function. Size limit of harvesting and sustained yield were used as the constraints. The results of comparison between LP and FLP were shown that LP is more suitable than FLP in terms of the amount of timber production and final forest stock. However, as long-term sustained yield was limitedly achieved by using LP, FLP was more desirable for prediction of potential wood supply. According to the results of this study, the potential of annual domestic wood supply was estimated about 10.5 million cubic meters. Gyeong buk, Jeon nam, Gangwon and Gyeong nam province were highly ranked in order of provincial potential of wood supply.

정수계획법을 이용한 산림경영계획의 수립방안 연구

원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),김형호 ( Hyung Ho Kim ),정세경 ( Se Kyung Chong ),우종춘 ( Jong Choon Woo ) 한국산림과학회 2006 한국산림과학회지 Vol.95 No.6

장기산림경영계획의 목표수확량 산출을 위한 목표계획법의 적용

원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),김영환 ( Young Hwan Kim ),권순덕 ( Soon Duk Kwon ) 한국산림과학회 2009 한국산림과학회지 Vol.98 No.1

충남지역 밤나무 재배 임가의 경영 효율성 분석

원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),전준헌 ( Jun Heon Jeon ),유병일 ( Byoung Il Yoo ),이성연 ( Seong Youn Lee ),이정민 ( Jung Min Lee ),지동현 ( Dong Hyun Ji ) 한국산림과학회 2013 한국산림과학회지 Vol.102 No.3

The study, utilizing a data envelopment analysis (DEA) which is one of the nonparametric estimation methods, aims to evaluate the management efficiency of chestnut tree cultivators in such provinces in Chungchungnam-do as Cheong-yang, Gong-ju, Bu-yeo and so on. The analysis data of this study is based on inputs and outputs of 20 forestry households surveyed in the 2012 survey titled ‘A Study on Current Level and Condition of Chestnut Cultivation and Management’, which was conducted from March 2012 to October 2012. The elements of inputs are composed of management cost, harvesting cost, material cost, non-operation expenses and cultivation area, while the element of output is a gross margin only. Then the study analyzes a technical efficiency, a puretechnical efficiency and a scale efficiency using CCR and BCC model among DEA methods. Based on that, it also provides improvement methods for forestry households that turned out to be inefficient. In order to verify the result of DEA analysis, the study additionally compares a result of this efficiency study with that of chestnuts management standard diagnostic table. According to the result, the average value of technical efficiency analyzed was 0.667,proving to be inefficient in general. Given that the average value of pure-technical efficiency was 0.944 and that of scale efficiency was 0.703, it can be inferred that inefficiency exists in the field of scale, not in the field of cultivation techniques. As for forestry households with the efficiency score of 1, it is shown that there were 6households that recorded 1 in the technical efficiency field and 13 households that recorded 1 in the pure technical efficiency. Meanwhile, there were 6 households that recorded 1 in all of the three aspects. In the comparison with the scores from chestnuts management standard diagnostic table, there were 5 households made a high score of over 80, among which are 3 households with score 1 in the technical efficiency. Also, the results of this study and the chestnuts management standard diagnostic table are proved to have the same result, both of them showing the same households that recorded the highest score and the lowest score. This means the management efficiency evaluation using DEA can be applied to the fieldwork along with the chestnuts management standard diagnostic table.

난방용 목재펠릿 수요와 공급 전망

김동현 ( Dong-hyun Kim ),김의경 ( Eui-gyeong Kim ),원현규 ( Hyun-kyu Won ) 한국산림경제학회 2022 산림경제연구 Vol.29 No.1

목재펠릿은 탄소 중립성을 가지는 연료이며 화석에너지의 대체재로서 중요성이 있어 향후 목재펠릿 시장의 확대가 예상된다. 이 연구의 목적은 목재펠릿 시장에 대한 수요와 공급함수를 추정하고 미래시장을 전망하는데 있다. 목재펠릿은 용도에 따라 난방용과 발전용으로 구분할 수 있는데 본 연구의 대상은 난방용 목재펠릿이다. 이와 관련하여 2014년 1월부터 2020년 12월까지 시계열자료를 활용하여 선형 회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 수요함수와 공급함수의 설명력은 78%, 89%로 각각 나타났으며 통계적 유의성을 가지고 수급함수가 추정되었다. 탄소중립을 법제화 한 국가를 중심으로 한 시나리오 분석은 등유가격의 변화율과 경제성장률(기본 시나리오)을 이용하여 시장을 전망하였다. 그 결과, 목재펠릿의 가격은 증가하였으나 목재펠릿 수급량은 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. Wood pellet is a fuel with carbon neutrality and is important as a substitute for fossil energy, so the wood pellet market was expected to expand in the future. The purpose of this study was to estimate the demand and supply functions for the wood pellet market and to predict the future market. Wood pellets can be divided into heating and power generation according to their use, and the subject of this study was wood pellets for heating. In this regard, as a result of linear regression analysis of using time-series data from Jan. 2014 to Dec. 2020, the explanatory power of the demand function and the supply function was 78% and 89%, respectively, and the supply and demand function was estimated with statistical significance. Scenario analysis centered on countries that legislated carbon neutrality predicted the market using the rate of change in kerosene prices and the economic growth rate based on the basic scenario. As a result, the price of wood pellets increased, but the supply and demand of wood pellets decreased.