브랜드 아파트의 거시경제 충격에 의한 가격변화 차이연구

우철민(Woo, Chul-Min) 건국대학교 부동산정책연구소 2011 Working Paper Series Vol.11 No.10

본 연구에서는 일반아파트와 브랜드아파트 간의 거시경제변수의 변화에 따른 가격변동을 알아보고자 하였다. 먼저 브랜드 아파트 10개를 정의하고 월별데이터를 수정하여 서올시 아파트 평균과 비교 분석하였다. 그랜져인과관계 분석절과 두 집단모두 거시정제변화에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났으며, VAR분석에도 동일한 결과가 나타났다. 분산분해분석에서 브랜드 아파트는 거시경제 변수에 약 50%정도 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났으며, 서울시 평균은 58%정도 영향을 받는 것으로 분석되었다. 이상과 같은 결과를 볼 때, 브랜드 아파트 가격이 거시경제변수에 영향을 덜 받는 것으로 분석되었다.

분양가 상한제의 실효성에 대한 실증분석

우철민(Chul-Min Woo),심교언(Gyo-Eon Shim) 건국대학교 부동산도시연구원 2010 Working Paper Series Vol.10 No.01

본 연구의 목적은 현재 정부에서 실행하고 있는 분양가상한제 제도의 실효성에 대한 실증분석 연구이다. 정부는 높은 아파트 분양가가 중고아파트 가격에 영향을 미쳐 아파트 가격이 동반 상승한다는 이론을 앞세워 분양가상한제를 시행하였다. 분양가상한제는 현재 주택공급 감소와 미분양주택의 증가와 같은 시장의 기능을 방해하고 있는 것으로 판단된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 실제적으로 주택시장에서 신규주택과 중고주택가격간에 인과성이 존재하는지를 실증분석하기 위해 각 시장별 수요·공급모형을 설정하여 분석하기로 한다. 분석결과 중고주택시장의 가격은 신규주택시장에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났지만 신규주택의 가격은 중고주택에 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다.

서울시 간접투자대상 오피스빌딩의 실질임대료 및 Cap. rate 비교연구

우철민(Woo, Chul Min),정인호(Jung, In Ho),심교언(Shim, Gyo Eon) 한국부동산학회 2015 不動産學報 Vol.62 No.-

본 연구는 외환위기 이후 외국인들뿐만 아니라 국내의 연기금과 보험사 등 많은 투자자들이 대체 투자 대상으로 삼고 있는 오피스 빌딩의 시장현황을 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위하여 오피스시장을 공간시장(Space Market)과 자산시장(Asset Market)으로 분류하여 이와 관련된 자료들을 분석하였다. 먼저 공간시장에서는 간접투자시장 오피스의 규모와 향후 공급될 예정인 오피스를 파악하였으며, 이전의 연구에서 제시하지 못하였던 실질임대료(Effective Rent) 변화를 분석하였다. 특히, 공실률이 높아지면서 표면임대료(Face Rent)와 실질임대료(Effective Rent)의 차이가 커지고 있음을 실제 오피스 사례를 바탕으로 분석하여 시사점을 제시하였다. 자산시장에서는 오피스 수익률을 나타내는 지표인 Cap Rate을 권역별, 간접투자방법 별로 분석하였다. 분석결과 외환위기 이후 Cap Rate이 낮아지는 모습을 보였으며, 금융위기 이후 잠시 상승하다가 현재는 정체되어 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이상과 같이 다양한 시각을 통하여 금융위기 이후 변화된 오피스 시장에 대한 특성을 분석하였으며, 간접투자를 위한 시사점을 제시하였다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The present study aims to analyse the current market conditions of office buildings drawing attention as alternative investment targets from many investors such as domestic pension and funds and insurance companies as well as foreigners since the global financial crisis. (2) RESEARCH METHOD In this context, this study analyses the data relevant to both office space market and asset market. To begin with, the scale of indirect investments in office in the space market and the office buildings to be supplied in the future are investigated. Notably, the present study analyses the variation in effective rents which has never been reported by previous studies. In particular, the present analysis of the real cases of office space implicates a growing gap between face and effective rents due to increasing vacancy rates. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS In terms of the asset market, this study analyses the cap rate, an indicator showing the return on investment in office buildings, in light of regions and indirect investment methods. In short, following the fall after the foreign exchange crisis and the temporary rise after the global financial crisis, the cap rate has stagnated at present. Nonetheless, the preference for risk-free assets coupled with the competition among REITs AMCs is likely to bring up the prices in the future, while reducing the return on investment. 2. RESULTS As abovementioned, this study analyses the varied office market since the global financial crisis from diversified perspectives and presents some implications for indirect investments.

소득 및 자산효과에 의한 백화점 매출액 변화 연구

우철민 ( Woo Chul Min ),백민석 ( Baik Min Seok ),심교언 ( Shim Gyo Eon ),김성희 ( Kim Seong Hee ) 한국부동산학회 2013 不動産學報 Vol.52 No.-

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is analyzing the influence to the sales amount of department stores in Seoul according by individual’s income and household asset. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study set up a department store sales model based on empirical analysis using error correction mode (ECM). For analysis, the department store sales model is established by income, housing price, and price index of stock. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS According to the empirical analysis using Error Correction Model, the income and price index of stock have influenced on sales of department store. But, housing price have not influenced on it although housing comprises 80% of total assets. 2. RESULTS According to the results of this research, increase of real incomes and rise of stock index have been shown to influence the sales growth of department stores. Therefore, there is a significance in the sense that we actually analyzed the correlation between sales growth of department stores as the biggest commercial facilities and income and wealth effect beyond the general theories that income and property effect lead to consumption.

패널데이터를 이용한 대형할인점의 매출액 영향요인에 관한 연구

우철민 ( Chul Min Woo ),안지상 ( Ji Sang Ahn ),심교언 ( Gyo Eon Shim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2011 不動産學硏究 Vol.17 No.3

Rapidly growing sales amount of large discount stores change consumers` lifestyle and affect commercial structure as well as influencing regional economies a lot. In addition, the number of discount stores became sensitive issue because of increased competition for location selection between companies. Accordingly, this paper studies about discount stores` sales determinants by brand and by location while lifestyle changing large discount stores are competing for location selection. We investigated to find the relationship of large discount stores` sales amount and brand using time series - cross sectional Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method which is the analysis method using panel data that combines time series data and cross sectional data. Selected explanatory variables are sales amount, store characteristics by location that is changing by time, economic characteristic and brand characteristics for the all 192 stores that are surveyed. Using this, we analyzed the influences to sales amount by store location and brand characteristics.

임상연구 : Rocuronium 정주 방법에 따른 회피 반응과 기관내삽관 조건 비교

우철민 ( Cheol Min Woo ),백승훈 ( Seung Hoon Baek ),김철홍 ( Chul Hong Kim ),권재영 ( Jae Young Kwon ),김해규 ( Hae Kyu Kim ),신상욱 ( Sang Wook Shin ) 대한마취과학회 2006 Korean Journal of Anesthesiology Vol.51 No.6

Background: Rocuronium may replace succinylcholine for intubation in general endotracheal anesthesia. However, intravenous bolus injection of rocuronium produces the responses of pain and withdrawal. We hypothesized that the infusion of rocuronium during endotracheal intubation could decrease these responses without influencing the intubating condition. Methods: One hundred and twenty patients were randomly assigned to one of four groups (B2, I2, B3, and I3), divided by the injection methods (B2 and B3: bolus injection, I2 and I3: infusion injection for 60 sec) and doses of rocuronium (B2 and I2: 0.6 mg/kg, B3 and I3: 0.9 mg/kg). After loss of consciousness with thiopental sodium (5 mg/kg), rocuronium was injected intravenously as arranged in every groups. Withdrawal response to rocursonium injection was assessed by 4-grade scale (score 0-3). Muscle relaxation was monitored by fade out time of single twitch stimulation, and the intubating condition was assessed by the total score of 4-grade scales (score 0-3) of jaw relaxation, vocal cord opening and response to intubation. Results: The withdrawal scores of the infusion groups (I2 and I3) were lower than those of the bolus groups (B2 and B3) (P < 0.05). The fade out time of single twitch stimulation was shorter in large dose (0.9 mg/kg) of rocuronium (P < 0.05), but it was not different regardless of injection methods (bolus vs. infusion). Intubating condition was also better in large dose group than small dose regardless of their injection methods. Conclusions: The infusion of rocuronium for endotracheal intubation effectively reduces the withdrawal response compared with bolus injection, and it neither delays the onset of muscle relaxation nor deteriorates the intubating condition during endotracheal intubation. (Korean J Anesthesiol 2006; 51: 663~8)

복합용도개발특성이 주변지역 아파트가격에 미치는 영향

안지상 ( Ji Sang Ahn ),우철민 ( Chul Min Woo ),정의철 ( Eui Chul Chung ),심교언 ( Gyo Eon Shim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2010 不動産學硏究 Vol.16 No.2

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of mixed-use development as a means of urban regeneration on apartment prices in adjacent area. We selected eight cases in Seoul, and examined ripple effects of mixed-use characteristics on the variations of the prices of apartments located within one kilometer radius for 12 months after its completion. To account for heterogenous characteristics and time dependence, a cross-sectional time-series model is estimated. Our empirical results show that mixed-use developments with larger scales and with appropriate mix of uses have positive effects on apartment prices in adjacent area. Locational and amenity factors are also found to increase the neighborhood apartment prices.

도시형생활주택의 입지별 분양가격 및 수익률 결정요인

박진아(Jin-A Park),우철민(Chul-Min Woo),백민석(Min-Seok Baik),심교언(Gyo-Eon Shim) 한국콘텐츠학회 2012 한국콘텐츠학회논문지 Vol.12 No.11

부동산 경기의 하락과 소형가구가 증가함에 따라 소형주택에 대한 수요가 증가하고 있다. 특히 도시형생활주택은 소형가구의 생활패턴에 맞는 주택형태와 지리적 위치에 입지하고 있기 때문에 수요가 증가하고 있으며, 높은 수익률을 앞세워 투자 부동산으로 홍보 되면서 많은 투자자들이 분양을 받고 있다. 반면, 도시형생활주택의 분양가격과 수익률을 고려한 실증연구는 전무한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구는 서울의 도시형생활주택을 조사하여 분양가격과 수익률에 대하여 실증분석 하였다. 이를 통하여 공급주체 및 투자주체들에게 다양한 가이드라인과 시사점을 제시하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 서울의 50세대 이상의 도시형생활주택 51개 단지를 조사하였으며, 실증분석을 위하여 선형회귀분석과 PLS(Partial Least Square Regression) 분석을 활용하였다. 분석결과, 분양가격 결정요인을 위한 선형회귀분석에서는 주변 주택가격과 역세권 변수가 유의한 것으로 나타났으며, 수익률 분석에서는 주변 주택가격과 역세권, 주변 편의시설이 수익률에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. The demand for small-sized housing has been increasing due to the recession of real-estate price and the increase of small-sized households. Especially, the demand for affordable housing has been increasing since the style of housing and the location fits the lifestyle of small-sized household. In addition, many investors have been buying it because it has advertised as an investment property holding high-return ratio. However, an empirical analysis about the selling price and the return ratio has not been done yet. Therefore, the purpose of the research is having the empirical analysis based on the selling price and return ration by examining the affordable housing in Seoul. The urban-life housing more than 50 generations of the Seoul was irradiated for the analysis. And the linear regression analysis and PLS(Partial Least Square Regression) analysis was used for the empirical analysis. The result of analysis, based on the linear regression analysis, showed that factors including neighboring housing price and subway catchment area have a significant effect to the determinant factors of housing price. The analysis for return ratio showed neighboring housing price, subway catchment area and amenities affects the ratio. Especially, the fault of using small sample was covered by using the partial least square regression in this research.